Authored by: Forbes
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
The year 2026 has been quite challenging for Bitcoin, as it failed to sustain the historical high of over $126,000 it briefly broke last year. Despite multiple favorable signals released by U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin's price has still fallen by more than 50% cumulatively since last October. However, several analysts point out that the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift might be brewing a turnaround.
Just as BlackRock's CEO recently issued a new 12-month Bitcoin price forecast, Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, offered a highly relevant comparison: the army of Bitcoin ETFs is likely to make Bitcoin's price action "mirror" the "victory and pain" journey of gold over the past two decades.
Balchunas posted on platform X, stating: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs is perhaps the closest roadmap available for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the inception of gold ETFs in 2004, the price of gold has skyrocketed, with its total market capitalization now approaching $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market speculation—if Bitcoin can replicate part of gold's successful path, its potential upside would be extremely substantial.
He further analyzed: "Both gold and Bitcoin are packaged products of non-yielding stores of value. They generate no cash flow, and the core driver of their prices relies entirely on investor sentiment, rather than the profitability of traditional stocks, the coupons of bonds, or the credit backing of governments."
Over the past two decades, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic ups and downs: they briefly became the world's largest ETF in 2011, then entered a prolonged eight-year downturn, struggling to recover. Balchunas believes that Bitcoin ETFs are following a similar script—"impressive gains, painful pullbacks, and recovery phases requiring immense patience to endure." It is noteworthy that each cycle of gold ETFs has pushed historical highs higher, which is particularly encouraging for long-term Bitcoin holders.
Looking back at the development of Bitcoin ETFs: In early 2024, after over a decade of persistent advocacy from the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs were finally approved and entered the market. Wall Street institutions flocked in, with several leading funds quickly becoming some of the fastest-growing ETF products in history. This not only marked Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to the mainstream financial system but also set the stage for subsequent price volatility.
However, volatility remains ever-present. Earlier this month, analysts from Bitfinex exchange warned that a "shocking" large-scale outflow of ETF funds could directly interrupt the current rebound momentum. Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% from the low below $57,000 in early July, but the market remains highly vigilant.
As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins in recent months to meet redemption pressure and still holds over 733,000 Bitcoins, with assets under management close to $50 billion. This also reflects the liquidity characteristics of institutional funds—both inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.
Despite Bitcoin's substantial price correction this year, many long-term bulls remain highly confident. They generally believe that Bitcoin has the potential to experience long-term prosperity comparable to that of gold. Balchunas himself emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold exploded in popularity back then, surpassing the world's largest ETF, SPY, in size on a single day in 2011, then fell out of favor for years. IBIT similarly surged to a peak of $100 billion in assets under management in a single day—that was precisely the top in October 2025. Both have nearly fixed supplies; when demand surges intensely, it easily triggers price explosions. The problem is that demand tends to be fickle, coming in waves rather than steadily and continuously."
From the perspective of seasoned observers in the crypto industry, this comparison holds significant practical meaning. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring through its scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and global recognition; Bitcoin, under its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasingly strong institutional adoption, exhibits traits similar to "digital gold." The emergence of ETFs has further lowered the barrier to holding, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without directly holding Bitcoin, undoubtedly amplifying demand elasticity.
Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. Simon-Peter Massabni, Business Development Director at XS.com, pointed out: "Institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin's most solid pillars. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record stable fund inflows, while more and more companies are beginning to incorporate digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest effectively alleviates selling pressure during recent market corrections."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be deeply influenced by the macro environment, regulatory dynamics, and institutional behavior. Gold's market cap has reached nearly $28 trillion. If Bitcoin can gradually assume a similar "store of value" status, even reaching just a fraction of gold's market capitalization, it would bring about extremely considerable appreciation potential. Of course, the process will inevitably be accompanied by sharp volatility—this is precisely the essence of the crypto market's "high risk, high reward."
For ordinary investors, the key lies in maintaining rationality, diversifying risks, and focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. Bitcoin's story is far from over. As more traditional capital enters and infrastructure improves, the prologue to this "price explosion" may have just begun. From Gold to Bitcoin: Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, Might It Repeat the 'Explosive' Price Trend?
