Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its decline, continuing its downward trend on Thursday. Following a 4% drop in the previous trading session, selling pressure in the market intensified further. On-chain data indicates that large investors continued to reduce their holdings, leading to a significant decrease in DOGE's circulating supply after profit-taking operations.
Meanwhile, short positions in the derivatives market have increased noticeably, reflecting a rise in bearish sentiment as retail interest wanes. Technical analysis shows that DOGE has broken below its April low, strengthening the downtrend, with the next key target level looking toward the $0.1000 mark.
On-Chain Demand and Retail Sentiment Weaken Simultaneously
According to Santiment, addresses holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE currently hold 34.77 billion coins, down significantly from 36.14 billion on December 1. Although this group shifted to a wait-and-see approach after a concentrated sell-off of over 1 billion DOGE on December 10, their overall share of holdings has dropped from a peak of 53.95% on December 3 to 50.70%, indicating continued capital outflow.
Derivatives Market Dominated by Bears
Amid the cautious overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market due to the release of U.S. CPI data on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday, DOGE's performance faced simultaneous pressure. According to CoinGlass data, the proportion of DOGE derivative short positions has risen from 52.59% on Wednesday to 53.91%, with bearish forces taking the lead.
In the past 24 hours, DOGE long positions worth over $5 million were liquidated, further confirming intensified selling pressure in the market.
Technical Analysis: Will the $0.10 Level Be Tested?
So far, DOGE has accumulated a decline of over 6%, with its price gradually approaching the S1 pivot support at $0.1231. The meme coin's daily closing price hit a new low since October 17, 2024, and it has fallen for the third consecutive week.
If the $0.1231 support level is broken, DOGE could further decline toward the psychological barrier of $0.1000. Technical indicators also lean bearish: the MACD indicator crossed below the signal line on Monday and has continued to decline, highlighting downside risks; the RSI indicator is currently at 33 and shows a downward trend, gradually approaching oversold territory, reflecting significant bearish pressure in the market.
Conversely, if DOGE finds support near $0.1231 and stages a rebound, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $0.1556 will form a key near-term resistance level.
