Author: BruceBlue, Former Bing Ventures GP
How did the mysterious researcher Serenity achieve over 22,500% returns in 2 years?
Using the Checkpoint Theory (supply chain bottleneck theory) to identify the irreplaceable physical switches of the AI era.
Using a bottom-up supply chain reverse engineering mindset to find the choke points.
Before making any investment assumptions, engages in intense debates with various AI models to identify potential loopholes and limitations, akin to a top-tier investment IC meeting.
Prelude
Over the past few months, if you've been following the secondary market for AI infrastructure, it's been hard to miss one name: Serenity@aleabitoreddit
A former trader permanently banned from Reddit WallStreetBets (WSB), changed platforms, uses an anime female avatar, and has amassed over 300,000 followers in less than a year. A single tweet from him can cause a FTSE 250 component stock to surge nearly 90% in two days. His research is cited by Bloomberg and Reuters, and even hedge funds are doing his copytrade.
The market marvels at his over 22,561.99% returns in the past two years, or questions his unverifiable background: "former AI research scientist," "Nature paper author," "RISC-V Foundation member," even claiming to have rejected an offer from Nvidia's AI team lead position in 2018 when the stock was around $6.
Serenity's AI Portfolio
But what truly matters isn't those dazzling numbers, nor whether he actually published a paper in *Nature*.
What truly matters is: He provides a reverse engineering observation paradigm for the AI era and has executed violent arbitrage on information asymmetry within the institutional blind spots of Wall Street.
The core of this paradigm, he calls it Chokepoint Theory (supply chain bottleneck theory).
From WSB Gambler to Supply Chain Detective: A Transformation of Identity
First, some background. His story began in early 2022 on the famous retail investor forum r/wallstreetbets (WSB) on Reddit.
His account was called AleaBito, with distinct WSB retail colors, keen on high-leverage, high-risk, and highly entertaining options and IPO trades. He once placed a $175,000 one-sided options "YOLO" trade on eToro ($ETOR) IPO based on a gag logic that the technical chart resembled "Bluefin Tuna Toro." In trading Hims & Hers Health ($HIMS), he allocated a $100,000 position based on "Gym Bro Formation." Additionally, he accurately predicted Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) would break through $120 when its stock was at a low, based on developments in liquid cooling technology.
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ @aleabitoreddit / Serenity's Evolution Path
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Reddit Phase (Pre-2022): AleaBito
│ Style: Combines hardcore financial analysis with highly entertaining "WSB retail" narratives, prefers high-risk "YOLO"
│ Track Record: $ETOR (Tuna Toro), $HIMS (Gym Bro), $SMCI (Predicted $120 breakout at low)
│
│ X Platform Phase (2022 - Present): Serenity
│ Style: Focus on "bottom-up" supply chain reverse engineering for AI data center hardware, silicon photonics, advanced packaging
│ Track Record: $RPI, $SIVE, Soitec, $VLN, $NBIS
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
The turning point came in early 2022. He posted a deep fundamental research report on the compound semiconductor substrate manufacturer AXT, Inc. ($AXTI) on WSB. At the time, $AXTI had a market cap of only $200 million and a stock price around $12. Due to the report's professionalism conflicting with the forum's speculative atmosphere, the moderators permanently banned the account for "deliberately guiding public opinion" and "pump and dump."
Subsequently, $AXTI soared to $70 driven by surging demand for compound semiconductors and optoelectronic substrates, realizing over 1000% paper gains, becoming the researcher's "signature achievement." This banning incident directly prompted his migration to X platform, and after renaming himself "Serenity," he completely shifted his investment focus to "chokepoint" segments within the semiconductor core hardware and precision supply chain.
Core Framework: Finding the "Strait of Hormuz" of the AI Era
The vast majority of sell-side institutions on Wall Street view AI from a top-down perspective. They focus on Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, calculate trillion-dollar Capex guidance, and engage in fierce mathematical modeling battles around next quarter's revenue.
Serenity's perspective is bottom-up. He employs a supply chain reverse engineering model.
He takes physical clusters like Nvidia's H100, B200 GPUs as the origin point, deconstructing layer by layer downward, until uncovering ultra-micro components or raw materials at the physical level that cannot be replaced and are monopolized by a single or very few companies. These highly segmented domains operate silently outside the spotlight of trillion-dollar market caps. Yet, once supply is disrupted, the entire downstream AI industry cluster faces physical paralysis.
He calls these nodes "Choke Points," likening them to the Strait of Hormuz controlling global oil passages, or the indispensable but often unnoticed shiso leaf in a high-end Ginza kaiseki meal.
- Integration of Physical and Geographic Coordinate Maps
Serenity has built a precise global semiconductor "chokepoint" physical and geopolitical map. This map spans U.S., Taiwanese, European, and Japanese stocks, integrating the geographic coordinates of production facilities, technological patent barriers, geopolitical risks, and various countries' export control policies for every niche giant in the industrial chain. When new geopolitical conflicts, export bans, or earnings reports emerge, he can quickly locate specific physical nodes on the supply chain map and place high-conviction directional bets using his highly concentrated stock positions.
- Adversarial AI Argument Testing
Before formally publishing any investment hypothesis, Serenity has a unique "red team, blue team" argumentation process. He inputs research drafts into different large language models, commanding the AI to play the role of an extremely demanding "Devil's Advocate," specifically picking out loopholes in his investment logic, technical/physical limitations, threats from alternatives, and potential valuation biases. Only after passing multiple rounds of AI technical and logical interrogation does he publicly release the report.
Physical Barriers in Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
In Serenity's supply chain map, the physical evolution of data center AI computing infrastructure is his core investment theme.
As large language model parameters grow exponentially, interconnecting ten-thousand, hundred-thousand, or even million-GPU clusters becomes the physical bottleneck for compute scaling. At extremely high data throughputs, traditional copper cable interconnects are hitting insurmountable physical limits: high-frequency electrical signals in copper suffer from high attenuation, uncontrollable electromagnetic interference, and high power consumption and heat dissipation burdens.
To break this "copper wall," the process of converting electrical signals to optical signals for high-bandwidth, low-latency transmission—"optical replacing copper"—has become a necessary path for AI infrastructure development. The forefront of this physical layer revolution is the "Co-Packaged Optics" (CPO) architecture led by giants like TSMC and Nvidia.
The core idea of CPO is to integrate the electro-optic conversion chip and the core compute chip directly on the same multi-chip package substrate, reducing the electrical signal transmission distance within the package to the millimeter level. This revolutionary architecture presents five major "chokepoint" technical/physical barriers that Serenity has pinpointed:
Serenity's CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) Reverse Engineering Map:
Nvidia H100/B200 Clusters (Ten-thousand GPU interconnect demand)
│
▼
Optical Replacing Copper (Breaking copper's physical limits: attenuation, power, heat)
│
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Five Physical Barriers of Silicon Photonics & CPO (Chokepoint Segments)
│
│ 1. High-Precision Physical Alignment: Fiber Array Unit (FAU) & Microlenses
│ → $FOCI (FOCI, Taiwan): Indispensable physical chokepoint status
│
│ 2. External Light Source (ELS) & High-Power Continuous Wave (CW) DFB Lasers
│ → $SIVE (Sivers, Sweden): Extremely scarce physical asset for 1.6T LRO/CPO
│
│ 3. Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) Equipment Barrier
│ → $ALRIB (Riber, France): Global monopolist, "choking the neck" of epitaxy capacity
│
│ 4. High-Purity Red Phosphorus Raw Material (Purity needs 6N-7N, i.e., 99.9999%+)
│ → NCI (Nippon Chemical Industrial, Japan): Monopolized by very few specialty chemical giants
│
│ 5. Foundational Wafers: Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) Substrate Materials
│ → Soitec (France): Smart-Cut patent, absolute global technology & capacity monopolist
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
- High-Precision Physical Alignment Barrier
Since the optical waveguides inside silicon photonic chips are typically sub-micron sized, nano-scale physical alignment is required between the external fiber and the waveguide. Any tiny displacement causes significant "optical coupling loss." Serenity was the first in the English-speaking world to systematically link Taiwan's locally popular stock FOCI (3363.TW) with global CPO technological evolution.
- External Light Source (ELS) and High-Power CW DFB Laser Barrier
Silicon, being an indirect bandgap semiconductor, cannot achieve efficient light emission under electrical injection. CPO architecture must rely on independent external light sources providing high-power continuous wave laser. This laser must maintain single longitudinal mode operation in the high-temperature, high-pressure data center environment, with extremely high process requirements. Swedish company Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE), listed in Stockholm, has become an extremely scarce physical asset in the CPO external light source supply chain due to its relevant technology.
- Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) Equipment Barrier
In the growth of epitaxial wafers for high-power lasers and other compound semiconductors, the core physical process is Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE), which allows atomic-level precision growth of ultra-thin crystal films. Serenity identified the absolute global monopolist of MBE equipment: the French publicly listed company Riber ($ALRIB).
- High-Purity Red Phosphorus Raw Material Barrier
Compound semiconductor (e.g., indium phosphide substrate) manufacturing requires extremely strict raw material purity. Serenity pushed the reverse engineering to the most foundational chemical element: high-purity red phosphorus (purity 99.9999%+). Production capacity is almost entirely monopolized by a very few Japanese giants like Nippon Chemical Industrial Co., Ltd. (NCI). Once supply is hindered, the entire downstream chain halts.
- Silicon-On-Insulator (SOI) Substrate Material Barrier
Silicon photonic chips require SOI wafers as their foundational substrate. French company Soitec, with its exclusively invented Smart-Cut technology, holds an absolute global technology and production capacity monopoly in the silicon photonics SOI wafer market. Even giants like Japan's Shin-Etsu Chemical must pay patent licensing fees to them.
Humanoid Robots and the Geopolitical Game of Rare Earth Resource "Physical Switches"
In 2026, Serenity extended his "chokepoint" map horizontally to the geopolitical game of humanoid robots and rare earth elements.
- Supply Chain Rift Between Software "Brain" and Hardware "Body"
Market discussions on Tesla Optimus mostly focus on AI algorithms and large models, overlooking a fatal physical fact: the U.S. is losing the hardware and material manufacturing race for humanoid robots.
The "brain" of humanoid robots remains in the U.S., but the hardware "body" components responsible for movement (joints, actuators, reducers, etc.) are almost entirely in the hands of Asian manufacturers:
- Harmonic Reducers: GreenHarmony (China), Harmonic Drive (Japan)
- RV Reducers: Nabtesco (Japan), Shuanghuan Driveline (China)
- Linear Actuators: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (China)
- Servo Systems & Ball Screws: Inovance Technology (China)
To reduce costs, U.S. robotics companies have already signed long-term contracts with these Chinese and Japanese component giants. This high dependency means hardware supply chains face physical shutdowns if geopolitical friction occurs.
- Rare Earth "Demand Tsunami" and the Morgan Stanley Model
Serenity cites Morgan Stanley's demand forecast model for quantitative projection: If global humanoid robot stock reaches 1 billion units by 2050, their consumption of core rare earth resources will create a disastrous "demand tsunami":
- Neodymium (Nd): Cumulative consumption ~400,000 tons (15% of known global reserves)
- Dysprosium (Dy): Cumulative consumption ~80,000 tons (25% of known global reserves)
- Terbium (Tb): Cumulative consumption ~16,000 tons (30% of known global reserves)
These are physical necessities for maintaining permanent magnet motor performance at high temperatures. Serenity emphasizes that Western capital must direct tens of billions of dollars in heavy capital toward rebuilding a domestic rare earth refining ecosystem to ensure supply chain security.
Based on this, he listed three major physical segments that must be closely monitored:
- Magnetic Metals: Light Rare Earths (Nd, Pr), Heavy Rare Earths (Dy, Tb), Special Magnets (Sm, Co).
- Structural Metallurgy: Precision Gear Materials (Ti, V, Mo), High-Strength Steel Additives (Nb, Cr, Ni, Mn), Anti-Wear Elements (Ce, La).
- Compute, Sensing & Power Systems: Advanced Semiconductors (Ga, Ge), Batteries & Wiring (2kg Li, 3kg Graphite, 6.5kg Cu per robot).
Core Case Studies and Empirical Performance Evaluation
With keen insight into technical barriers and commercialization inflection points, Serenity has successfully unearthed and led the value revaluation of multiple classic small-to-mid-cap tech stocks across different global capital markets.
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Serenity's Core Investment Targets & Empirical Performance Validation
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ $RPI (Raspberry Pi) | LSE UK
│ Positioning: Physical Base for AI Agent Swarm Control
│ Starting Point: Stock price below 280 pence (IPO price)
│ Validation: March 2026 annual report showed strong profit growth, chip sales up 47%, confirming logic as AI base
│ Performance: Stock surged nearly 40% on earnings day, rebounding over 60% from bottom
│
│ $SIVE (Sivers) | Stockholm Sweden
│ Positioning: Key Supplier of High-Power External Light Source DFB Lasers for Silicon Photonics CPO
│ Starting Point: Market cap only $130 million at recommendation
│ Validation: Secured strategic cooperation with Jabil, received $6.6M support from U.S. CHIPS Act
│ Performance: Market cap soared nearly 19x within a year of recommendation (now over $2.3B)
│
│ Soitec | Euronext Paris France
│ Positioning: Global Patent & Capacity Absolute Monopolist of Critical SOI Substrate Material for Silicon Photonics
│ Starting Point: Stock at bottom area of €43
│ Validation: Listed as a Category 1 exclusive material standard by TSMC & Nvidia
│ Performance: Stock instantly surged 16% on the day his views were published in European markets
│
│ $VLN (Valens) | NYSE USA
│ Positioning: Automotive A-PHY High-Speed Transmission Chip
│ Starting Point: Market cap at bottom of $253 million (recommended with $93.5M net cash, zero debt, ~60-62% gross margin guidance)
│ Validation: Pointed out mispricing due to code collision errors in scanners
│ Performance: Guided market for "mine-clearing" style revaluation by pointing out the "code collision" bug
│
│ $NBIS (Nebius Group) | NASDAQ USA
│ Positioning: Europe's Largest AI GPU/Rubin Compute Cluster Cloud Service Provider
│ Starting Point: Retracement bottom area around $95
│ Validation: Holds $3.7B net cash (end 2025), backlog of unexecuted contracts approaching $50B
│ Performance: Back on high-growth track, analyst target prices raised to $158-$211
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Deep Dive: Three Dimensions of Cognitive Arbitrage
- Raspberry Pi $RPI: Relative Value Gaming Model
While the market viewed Raspberry Pi as a declining educational component maker, Serenity captured a seismic shift in the AI developer ecosystem: numerous startups were hoarding Raspberry Pis as physical isolation bases for deploying "AI agent swarm control systems." If they bought Apple Mac Minis, this hoarding wave would be negligible in Apple's $3.7 trillion market cap. But for Raspberry Pi with a market cap of only £500 million, this is transformative.
- Valens Semiconductor $VLN: Information Arbitrage on Quant Code Collision
$VLN had $93.5M net cash, zero debt, ~60-62% gross margin guidance, locked Mercedes-Benz design wins, yet market cap only $253M. Serenity discovered a physical bug: mainstream global quant stock scanners had a "ticker symbol collision error," confusing $VLN data with Toronto-listed energy stock $VLO, severely distorting key metrics. He precisely listed the deviations, guiding capital for a "mine-clearing" style revaluation.
- Nebius Group $NBIS: Deep Bottom Fishing Amid Mechanical Panic
As a leading European AI-specialized cloud service provider, $NBIS saw its stock plunge to $95 due to early complex convertible bond arbitrage and mechanical hedging causing algorithmic selling pressure. Serenity pointed out this was "mechanical panic from non-fundamental factors." At $95, the market was giving this company—projecting 2026 revenue of $3-3.4B (nearly 6x growth) and holding billions in net cash—an absurdly steep discount.
Retail Capital Synergy and Potential Structural Risks
- Expert Retailer Synergy Network
In Serenity's framework, retail investors are no longer merely liquidity providers or blind followers, but are reshaped into an "Expert Retailer Synergy Network." Traditional WSB relies on short-term options gamma squeezes or emotional memes for pumps. In contrast, Serenity, through his completely free, highly technically demanding hardcore analysis, has performed a deep "intellectual filtration" on his followers.
This highly specialized capital synergy enables them to rapidly form a collective force in multiple extremely illiquid, remote micro-cap markets that Wall Street giants cannot cover, and take control of pricing for core assets.
- Institutional Blind Spots and Information Asymmetry Arbitrage
Analysts at large institutions are constrained by internal compliance, minimum market cap thresholds (e.g., not covering below $1B), and regional specialization (U.S. stock analysts don't write Sweden or Taiwan research). This creates massive research vacuums in the global supply chain. Serenity, as a completely anonymous independent researcher, ignores market cap and geographical barriers, directly guiding global long capital to violently fill these vacuums.
- Structural Risks and Potential Game Dilemma
However, blindly following this strategy comes with unavoidable fatal risks:
- Liquidity Traps and Stampede Risk: Micro-cap stocks have extremely low daily trading volume. When the retail synergy rushes in, prices skyrocket instantly; once technical implementation falls short, the narrow exit channels can lead to violent stampedes.
- Polarized Public Opinion and "Market Manipulator" Accusations: Veteran short sellers sharply criticize it as essentially a "high-IQ academically packaged pump and dump." Its characteristics of using massive public influence to attract retail investors to lift the stock expose it to long-term regulatory scrutiny.
- Single-Path Physical Technology Dependency "Deadly Minefield": All of Serenity's core positions are built on the assumptions that "CPO is the only physical evolution path" and "humanoid robots will have a billion-unit explosion." It's a high-stakes gamble. If Nvidia discovers insurmountable engineering dead ends in CPO and switches to advanced thin-film copper cables, or if the West cannot rebuild its rare earth separation chain, his entire supply chain empire built on silicon photonics, SOI, MBE equipment, and heavy rare earths would be physically dismantled instantly.
Closing Thoughts: Using Geek Depth to Outplay Financial Breadth
Following Serenity isn't about getting a get-rich-quick ticker, but about acquiring a framework for analysis that breaks consensus.
In this era of information overload, the easiest mistake for retail investors is trying to compete with institutions on the speed of information acquisition, or trading macro data that is already fully priced in. Serenity demonstrates another possibility: using reverse engineering to deconstruct the system, using AI as a "Devil's Advocate" to challenge one's own logic, and searching for the silent gears that truly control the system's operation.
You don't need to become the next Serenity. You don't need to buy any stock he buys.
But you should learn to ask a question like he does:
In this system, who is the silent, irreplaceable physical switch?
If you can answer that question, you already have one more layer of perspective than 99% of market participants. The rest is just waiting for the market to catch up to your cognition.
Disclaimer:
This article does not constitute any investment advice.
All background information about Serenity himself is self-reported and not verified by third parties.
His past performance does not guarantee future results.
Please conduct independent research before making any investment decisions.
NFA. DYOR.
