Data Inflation, Is ETH's Fundamental Still There?

比推2026-03-06 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-03-06 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

The report by Culper Research argues that Ethereum's fundamentals have been severely damaged following the December 2025 Fusaka upgrade. The upgrade increased the gas limit, causing a 90% drop in gas fees—far more than the 10-30% predicted—and led to a surplus of cheap block space. This has enabled a surge in "address poisoning" or "dusting" attacks, which now account for 95% of new wallet creation and over 22.5% of all ETH transactions. The authors claim these attacks artificially inflate on-chain activity metrics, such as active addresses and transaction volume, which are mistakenly cited by bulls like Tom Lee as evidence of organic growth. Additionally, the report states that lower transaction fees have reduced validator earnings, weakening staking incentives and undermining Ethereum’s token economics. It highlights that Vitalik Buterin has been selling significant amounts of ETH, suggesting insider awareness of these issues. The authors also note competitive threats from Solana, which is gaining developer momentum and institutional adoption. Culper Research concludes that Ethereum’s economic model is broken and maintains a bearish outlook on ETH.

Author: Culper Research(@CulperResearch)

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Original title: Culper Research: Why We Are Firmly Shorting ETH

Deep Tide Introduction: Culper Research is a well-known short-selling institution on Wall Street that has accurately targeted several high-profile companies. This report directly addresses the core issue: the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 brought a large amount of cheap block space, but real organic demand has not kept up—the "prosperous" on-chain data is actually fabricated by address poisoning attacks. Vitalik himself is selling a large amount of ETH, while Tom Lee, Ethereum's most staunch bull advocate, is still defending it with incorrect data. This article is not a prediction; it is a short-selling thesis with data and verification, worth reading carefully for every ETH holder.

We are shorting Ethereum and ETH-linked securities, including BMNR.

We believe that the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025 has severely damaged Ethereum's token economic model. Vitalik himself knows this and is continuously selling; while Tom Lee, ETH's most steadfast bull, is pouring good money into a bad bet.

$ETH will continue to fall.

Tom Lee's Defense: Active Addresses and Transaction Volume Are Rising

Tom Lee's $BMNR defends ETH, claiming that "ETH is not entering a death spiral because utility is rising." He cites the surge in ETH active addresses and transaction volume after Fusaka as evidence of "strengthening fundamentals" and institutional adoption.

Lee's logic is wrong.

By his own logic, if ETH's on-chain activity does not reflect real utility value growth, then ETH is heading toward a death spiral.

Our research shows that this is exactly what is happening.

The full report and disclosure information are now available at culperresearch.com.

The Truth About On-Chain Data: 95% of New Wallets Are Poisoning Attacks

Our comprehensive analysis of on-chain data from January 2025 to February 2026 shows: The "institutional adoption" data cited by Tom Lee is actually explained by large-scale low-value address poisoning/wallet dusting attacks triggered by the block space surplus brought by Fusaka.

Specific data after Fusaka:

95% of new wallet growth is explained by newly created "poisoned" wallets
Address poisoning attacks have increased by more than 3 times
Poisoning attacks explain more than 50% of ETH transaction volume growth
Poisoning attacks now account for 22.5% of all ETH transactions

Fusaka Upgrade: Gas Fees Collapsed by 90%, 3-9 Times Worse Than Expected

Fusaka increased the gas limit from 45 million to 60 million, aiming to scale Ethereum L1. Vitalik and PTG estimated that gas fees would drop by 10-30%.

Reality: Gas fees dropped by about 90%.

Vitalik and the validators severely underestimated L1 demand elasticity, with an error of 3-9 times—using outdated mathematical models from before EIP-1559 and before L2s emerged.

Vitalik Is Selling Like Crazy

This is why we believe Vitalik is selling ETH heavily. On January 30, he announced he would sell 16,384 ETH to fund the Ethereum Foundation's "austerity period." Since then, he has sold over 19,300 ETH and is still continuing.

He knows what Tom Lee does not: ETH's token economic model has collapsed.

We Personally Verified the Address Poisoning Attack

We documented the ETH address poisoning process firsthand: We created two new wallets, initiated a transfer between them, and were targeted by a poisoning attack within 5 minutes.

We encourage readers to verify this themselves.

Losses from poisoning attacks have grown at a rate more than 8 times faster than before Fusaka.

The Validator Flywheel Is Reversing

Additionally, the gas limit increase has severely hit ETH validators, who now see a 40-50% drop in tips per unit of gas. Lower returns reduce staking demand and high-value activity, thereby weakening the foundation for institutional adoption.

The flywheel is now spinning in reverse.

Ethereum Is Losing to Solana and Its Own L2s

Meanwhile, ETH continues to cede share:

Solana developers grew by 29% in 2025, while Ethereum only 6%; talent is draining away
Visa and Citigroup chose Solana to build DeFi applications
Solana DEX trading volume is now more than double that of Ethereum

Conclusion: The Next Nokia

During the internet bubble era, Netscape and Nokia dominated the market for over a decade, but ultimately, Google and Apple reaped the rewards.

We view ETH in the same light.

We believe the token economic model has collapsed, Tom Lee is in over his head, and $ETH will continue to decline.

Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN

Bitpush TG Discussion Group:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity

Bitpush TG Subscription: https://t.me/bitpush

Original link:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7617441

İlgili Sorular

QWhat is the main argument of Culper Research's report on Ethereum?

ACulper Research argues that Ethereum's tokenomics have been severely damaged by the Fusaka upgrade, which the increased block space led to a 90% drop in gas fees, but real organic demand did not keep up. They claim that the apparent surge in active addresses and transactions is largely due to address poisoning attacks, not genuine adoption, and that this has broken Ethereum's economic model.

QHow does Culper Research explain the increase in Ethereum's active addresses and transaction volume post-Fusaka?

ACulper Research attributes the increase in active addresses and transaction volume to address poisoning (wallet dusting) attacks, which account for 95% of new wallet growth and over 50% of the transaction volume increase. They argue that these attacks exploit the cheap block space created by Fusaka, creating artificial activity rather than reflecting real utility or adoption.

QWhat evidence does Culper Research provide to support their claim that Vitalik Buterin is selling ETH?

ACulper Research states that Vitalik Buterin announced on January 30 that he would sell 16,384 ETH to fund the Ethereum Foundation during a 'tightening period,' and has since sold over 19,300 ETH. They interpret this as evidence that he is aware of the broken tokenomics and is divesting accordingly.

QHow did the Fusaka upgrade affect gas fees and validator incentives according to the report?

AThe Fusaka upgrade increased the gas limit from 45 million to 60 million, intended to scale Ethereum L1. However, gas fees dropped by approximately 90%, far more than the estimated 10-30% decline. This reduction in fees decreased validator tips by 40-50%, undermining validator rewards and potentially reducing staking demand and high-value activity.

QWhat competitive threats to Ethereum does Culper Research highlight in their report?

ACulper Research highlights that Ethereum is losing market share to Solana and its own L2 solutions. They note that Solana developer growth was 29% in 2025 compared to Ethereum's 6%, that Visa and Citigroup are building DeFi applications on Solana, and that Solana DEX trading volume is now more than double that of Ethereum.

İlgili Okumalar

South Korean Stocks Plunge, Global Funds Liquidate: Has the Semiconductor Fundamentals Really Changed?

South Korean stocks experienced their sharpest decline of the year, with the KOSPI index plunging nearly 9% on Monday, triggering a market circuit breaker. Leading semiconductor firms Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were heavily sold off, raising questions about whether the AI-driven bull market has reached an inflection point. This sell-off was largely triggered by a significant drop in the U.S. semiconductor sector late last week. Concurrently, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang visited Seoul over the weekend, meeting with top executives from SK Group, Samsung, LG, and NAVER. He announced a new multi-year partnership with SK Hynix to co-develop next-generation memory products for AI data centers. Huang emphasized that AI infrastructure build-out remains in its early stages, creating a stark contrast between market panic and ongoing, strengthened industry collaboration. The article argues that South Korea has become one of the most sensitive markets for global AI-related capital flows, functioning like a large AI memory ETF due to the heavy weighting of its chipmakers. The current market turmoil reflects a shift in investor focus: from simply betting on overall AI growth to scrutinizing which companies will actually capture the profits from that growth. This "profit pool reassessment" phase is causing high volatility based on supply chain news and earnings guidance. Ultimately, the direction of the Korean market will be determined by external factors—NVIDIA's orders, HBM supply-demand dynamics, and capital expenditures from cloud service providers—rather than domestic conditions. The disconnect between sharp price corrections and continued strong signals from the industry core leaves the market at a crossroads, awaiting clearer data on the durability of AI infrastructure demand.

marsbit31 dk önce

South Korean Stocks Plunge, Global Funds Liquidate: Has the Semiconductor Fundamentals Really Changed?

marsbit31 dk önce

Trump in Talks with AI Companies Over Profit Sharing, A Narrative Pressure of Industrial Revolution Scale Begins

In recent AI market discussions, a new dimension beyond growth and profits has emerged: the question of how the immense wealth potentially generated by AI should be shared with the wider public. Triggered by reports of White House officials discussing "voluntary equity transfers" with top AI firms, similar to models like Alaska's Permanent Fund, the conversation focuses on public wealth funds. OpenAI's own whitepaper proposes such funds, allowing households without direct tech stock ownership to benefit from AI gains. More radical proposals, like Bernie Sanders' call for high public equity stakes and board seats, represent an extreme end of the spectrum. Currently, these are early-stage policy probes, not enacted laws. OpenAI's initiative is seen as an attempt to secure "social license" for its future expansion, mitigating risks of public backlash, stricter regulation, or anti-trust actions as AI's economic impact grows. The core market implication is the introduction of a "policy discount" to AI valuations, particularly for private model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. Investors must now consider not just future earnings but also what portion might be allocated to public mechanisms. The impact varies greatly based on the mechanism. A small, voluntary transfer of non-voting economic rights (e.g., 5%) acts as a quantifiable long-term cost. Government acquisition of economic rights via warrants tied to support differs from direct equity with governance power. The most disruptive scenario would be forced high-percentage public ownership affecting control and innovation incentives. Key signals to watch include whether other AI companies follow suit, if the White House formalizes proposals, related disclosures in future IPO documents, and any market price reactions. For now, this represents a shift from pricing pure AI growth to pricing its potential distribution. A manageable, voluntary economic share is akin to an insurance cost for societal acceptance, while a forced shift toward control and governance would fundamentally alter valuation logic.

marsbit35 dk önce

Trump in Talks with AI Companies Over Profit Sharing, A Narrative Pressure of Industrial Revolution Scale Begins

marsbit35 dk önce

From Record Highs to a Two-Week Low: Why Did AI Concept Stocks Suddenly Pull Back?

From Record Highs to Two-Week Lows: Why Did AI Stocks Suddenly Pull Back? U.S. stock indices, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, fell sharply to two-week lows. This marked a reversal from earlier in the week when AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks had propelled major indices to record highs. Investors are rotating out of these previously high-flying tech sectors into other areas. The sell-off was driven by profit-taking and concerns that the AI rally had become overextended, exacerbated by chipmaker Broadcom's sales outlook falling short of lofty market expectations. The decline accelerated following a stronger-than-expected U.S. May nonfarm payrolls report, which showed 172,000 jobs added versus an estimated 88,000. This data sparked a jump in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.553%, as it reinforced market speculation that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. Globally, equities also declined, with European and Asian markets falling. Within the U.S. market, chip and AI-related stocks like Super Micro Computer and Arm Holdings led the losses, dropping over 7%. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks and mining shares also fell sharply amid drops in Bitcoin and commodity prices. While the overall Q1 earnings season remained solid, with 83% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates, the weakness was concentrated in tech. Excluding the tech sector, Q1 earnings growth was around 3%, the weakest in two years.

marsbit35 dk önce

From Record Highs to a Two-Week Low: Why Did AI Concept Stocks Suddenly Pull Back?

marsbit35 dk önce

Earning Bounty with a Forehead Tattoo? pump.fun Keeps Memes Alive Through 'Bounties'

The article discusses the launch of pump.fun's new bounty platform "Pump.fun GO," which allows meme coin holders to lock funds as rewards for completing specific, often outrageous, marketing tasks to promote their tokens. Examples include a $50,000 bounty to skydive into a World Cup match in a mascot costume and a bounty for getting a forehead tattoo (with a typo) of a token name. The platform has sparked controversy for its perceived copycat nature compared to existing Web3 bounty platforms and its "crazy" tasks, while also granting pump.fun unilateral authority to approve or reject submissions. The move is analyzed as a strategic effort by pump.fun to revive declining platform revenue and meme coin engagement, following a pattern from its earlier, chaotic live-streaming feature. The core logic is that meme coins, lacking fundamentals, rely on manufactured attention and events, with GO formalizing this by outsourcing promotional stunts to bounty hunters, all aimed at boosting token visibility and price.

Foresight News58 dk önce

Earning Bounty with a Forehead Tattoo? pump.fun Keeps Memes Alive Through 'Bounties'

Foresight News58 dk önce

JP Morgan Mid-Year Research Report Analysis: The AI Supercycle is Not Over, Reduce Cash Holdings + Allocate to Real Assets

JP Morgan's 2026 Mid-Year Outlook argues the AI supercycle is far from over, despite market pessimism. The report advises clients to reduce cash holdings, increase allocations to real assets as an inflation hedge, and focus on emerging markets. Key conclusions include: 1. **AI Supercycle Intact**: Hyperscalers' 2026 capex forecasts exceed $650B, with AI contributing to GDP growth. However, their financial profile is shifting toward heavy investment, compressing free cash flow. 2. **SaaS Disruption**: Traditional software companies are being negatively impacted by AI, with significant stock declines and pressure in credit markets. 3. **Persistent Inflation**: Core inflation is structurally higher post-pandemic. Holding excess cash and bonds leads to real wealth erosion. Recommendations include commodities, infrastructure, real estate, and gold. 4. **Geopolitical Shocks & Opportunities**: The Hormuz Strait blockade caused a major oil shock, but JP Morgan views the subsequent equity market pullback as a buying opportunity. "Fragmentation" is creating pockets of value, notably in resource-rich Latin America, AI-supply-chain-linked East Asia, and deeply discounted Chinese equities, where a policy shift could trigger a re-rating. 5. **Regional Views**: The firm is cautious on Europe due to high energy costs and lower innovation investment, preferring US and select EM exposures. In short, JP Morgan sees market volatility as an entry point but recommends a portfolio pivot: favor AI infrastructure, real assets, and EM, while avoiding excess cash, vulnerable software firms, and traditional 60/40 stock-bond allocations.

marsbit1 saat önce

JP Morgan Mid-Year Research Report Analysis: The AI Supercycle is Not Over, Reduce Cash Holdings + Allocate to Real Assets

marsbit1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot

Futures