Author:Castle Labs
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Welcome to our special 152nd edition newsletter!
To celebrate the year-end, we've specially collected quotes and predictions from the Castle Labs team, the Castle Cap community (all big shots), and some friends!
Since we've already published a comprehensive year-end report, this time we chose a different format: sharing reflections on 2025 and predictions for 2026 through direct quotes from builders, bigwigs, researchers, and seasoned traders.
1. Predictions from Castle Labs
@francescoweb3
I hate making predictions the most! As a researcher, I prefer to "predict" based on data. Therefore, I only have strong confidence in a few narratives.
The first is robotics. Not just because of its potential, but also because I believe it will receive policy support. Trump has announced he might launch a robotics strategy and sign related executive orders in 2026.
Another prediction is that everyone will need to align their investment frameworks closer to traditional finance (TradFi). I think 2026 will be the year protocols operate like businesses and reshape their moats, further integrating deeply into the global financial architecture.
Furthermore, I expect that criminal activity in prediction markets will continue to increase, and insider trading will become more common. The fact that Trump is involved in prediction markets through his family company itself foreshadows what might happen in the future.
Last but not least, I expect Artificial Intelligence (AI) to continue growing, not only replacing more processes but also highlighting threats to privacy, identity, etc. Therefore, privacy will become an increasingly serious issue. Identity verification solutions (proof of identity) like those offered by Worldcoin will become more important and help drive innovations such as uncollateralized loans based on on-chain reputation (tied to real-world identity).
Thus, I believe 2026 will continue to be a year of industry maturation and evaluation. However, all these developments cannot exist in isolation, as the industry is becoming increasingly dependent on macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Therefore, you can't accurately analyze token trends without paying attention to questions like whether Venezuela will be bombed. Our crypto Twitter (CT) political analysts, take note!
@0xatomist
Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZK) will become the core of global digital infrastructure; however, their application is not necessarily limited to "cryptocurrency" or blockchain. Instead, they will gradually permeate the traditional Web2 world to solve the current severe data accountability crisis—driving the adoption of privacy-preserving identity verification, secure logins, and verifiable AI technologies.
Whoever develops a "legitimate and widely accepted" on-chain transaction privacy technology will achieve great success. This is a prerequisite for the first real influx of corporate and institutional capital on-chain.
The market will gradually realize that crypto is the missing key link in robotics development. The humanoid robotics market is expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, but it faces a huge "data barrier" because it cannot be trained like simple Large Language Models (LLMs). The practices of 2025 have proven that Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Decentralized Physical AI (DePAI) are the only way to massively accelerate robot training. Through tokenized incentive mechanisms, global contributors can be mobilized to collect the unique motion and environmental data required for physical AI. Crypto is no longer just about finance; it will become the coordination layer for the machine economy.
@schizoxbt
By 2026, 80% of altcoins and blockchain projects will trend towards zero. The reason is simple: most have extremely poor Tokenomics and offer products with no market demand, making them unworthy investment assets. As for "Memecoins," they should also go the way of the dodo bird, as they are probably one of the most absurd things our industry has created.
However, I believe Decentralized Finance (DeFi) will experience an absolute renaissance in 2026. As institutional and traditional finance (TradFi) capital floods on-chain on a larger scale, DeFi protocols (the closest things our industry has to stocks or investable businesses) will be the biggest winners. Their Total Value Locked (TVL) is expected to grow significantly with the influx of institutional capital (hopefully, lol). If institutional capital pours in heavily, I wouldn't be surprised if DeFi TVL explodes and related tokens skyrocket.
Although the privacy sector had a small boom once, it later faded. However, I think privacy will make a comeback in 2026 and become a major industry narrative.
Furthermore, I also hope to see more discussion about Tokenomics and token holder rights in 2026, finding better solutions than the existing models. The current Tokenomics landscape is quite dim, with most designs being terrible. I'm very much looking forward to some innovation in this area in the future!
@noveleader
The crypto user base is gradually maturing; at least 2025 taught us one thing: interest in scams is waning. Additionally, core crypto users are starting to place more importance on key factors like revenue sources, token holder rights, and the returns they can get. Next year, we will see more discussion on these issues, and protocols will be forced to create value for token holders to remain competitive and relevant.
Perpetuals (Perps), Privacy, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Robotics will become even stronger next year. Although average users might not care much about privacy because they are already "pseudo-anonymous," institutions, protocols, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), and High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs) will value privacy-protected fund flows more. Perpetuals and on-chain spot trading will capture a larger market share from Centralized Exchanges (CEX) in 2026, and more financial activity will move on-chain.
DeFi user onboarding processes and capital flow patterns will undergo new changes. The current bootstrapping methods will experience significant shifts and be replaced by consumer-facing applications. Apps like Aave App, Worldcoin, etc., will become the first points of contact for new crypto users. This will also help new users better avoid hacks, and "low-risk DeFi" will become more prominent.
Prediction Markets will see the dawn of victory, but the major market share will be taken by Polymarket and Kalshi. Although other players will also contribute to innovation, they will have their own niche audiences. Besides, building on top of already mature applications will be highly advantageous. On Polymarket, trading bots will explode, and any mispricing in the market will be captured within seconds or even milliseconds, especially in markets with faster resolutions.
2. Castle Cap Community's 2026 Predictions
@0x_ultra - @Kalshi
2025 was the year prediction markets (PMs) transformed from applications into a financial layer, evolving from niche tools to a whole new way of trading. Over the past few years, our industry has long seen that the world is gradually financializing many aspects of life, including expertise. And now, people in other fields are starting to understand what the future of finance looks like through exposure to prediction markets. Everyone is an expert in some area, and they should have the tools to monetize that knowledge.
@proofofjake_ - @ripdotfun
I generally believe the collectibles space will see exponential growth in the coming year. Especially with the upcoming Pokémon 30th Anniversary and the One Piece 30th Anniversary in 2027. Over the past year, many on-chain Real World Asset (RWA) and on-chain collectibles projects have shown strong Product-Market Fit (PMF) indicators, such as Courtyard's exceptional growth and the potential shown by other projects (like Dune analytics).
@kirbyongeo - @hypurr_co
Hyperliquid will become the liquidity layer for all finance.
The HIP-3 proposal will drive 10x trading volume growth, and new deployers will focus on long-tail assets. We will see unique Perpetuals (Perps) and innovative models powered by Hyperliquid.
Builder Codes are already empowering existing applications (like Phantom and Metamask) and generating revenue for them. Where capital flows, attention follows, and we will see more applications developed via Builder Codes.
Ultimately, the technological boundaries will be blurred and abstracted away; people won't even realize they are trading using Hyperliquid's infrastructure.
Building a blockchain that can host all finance is an ambitious goal, and the road ahead may be tough and challenging. But when you see 100x potential, you drop everything and go all-in to achieve it.
@mattdotfi- @backedFi
Tokenization grants traditional assets composability and modularity, creating a more inclusive financial ecosystem for institutional investors and retail users. The explosive growth of tokenized stocks in 2025 shows market demand exists, and by adding new use cases in DeFi and beyond, this demand will only continue to rise.
@ericonomic - @try_supercexy
Perpetuals (Perps) are gradually breaking out of the Crypto Twitter (CT) echo chamber and becoming truly mainstream, largely thanks to Hyperliquid's success. Its rise has made many traders realize that most Centralized Exchanges (CEX) operate with opacity, often prioritizing their own interests, while decentralized platforms have developed into genuine alternatives. These platforms can now offer a user experience similar to CEX while avoiding structural conflicts of interest.
I expect that by 2026, Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Perpetuals volume will reach 50% of CEX volume, and might practically surpass it, as many CEX report inflated or even fabricated volume. As this trend develops, many regional and smaller CEXs will gradually migrate to Hyperliquid's infrastructure, transforming via Builder Codes.
@dandefied - @ryskfinance
2026 will be a decisive year for DeFi.
Infrastructure has finally matured, products that have weathered this cycle are battle-tested, and institutional players are starting to move meaningful capital on-chain. This gives DeFi a real chance to prove it's more than a niche or "casino," but a cleaner, safer, more efficient alternative to traditional finance.
Trading will still be dominated by Perpetuals, and Hyperliquid will continue to expand its lead.
Perpetuals remain the dominant product for on-chain trading. Liquidity, User Experience (UX), and execution quality will determine the winners, and Hyperliquid is far ahead. The emergence of new perpetual markets (like stock perps) is a promising experiment, but attracting new users and new liquidity from TradFi will be the main challenge and growth opportunity.
2026 will also be the year options truly take off in DeFi, but not as trading instruments—that space is already taken by perps. The real opportunity lies in using options for specific use cases, such as generating yield from volatility or building yield structures that don't require users to touch the underlying complexity.
Capital is already shifting towards products that use options under the hood, rather than as a venue for trading, and 2026 will make this trend even more pronounced.
@reisnertobias
2025-2026: The Future of Hyperliquid
The coming year will be crucial for Hyperliquid to realize its vision of "becoming the blockchain that hosts all finance." Recently, we've seen more teams launch HIP-3 markets on Hyperliquid, covering forex, precious metals, and even Pokémon cards. Besides pushing more advanced technology, Hyperliquid has recently faced competition from other perpetual DEXs. Market growth is positive overall, and the future competitive landscape is worth watching.
@insomniac988 - @thetanutsfi
InfoFi is not dead!
Although InfoFi faced many challenges in 2025, such as being accused of fueling AI junk content, rewarding failed projects, and questions about incentives and content quality, this does not mean InfoFi is dead.
Looking back over the past year, since the launch of Kaito Yaps, InfoFi has proven its value and will continue to develop. We've seen positive changes, like cracking down on bot behavior, using on-chain history to build better participant profiles, and improvements in measuring mindshare and reward mechanisms.
I believe 2026 will be a year of further maturation for InfoFi, with better mechanisms, more simplified incentives, and outcomes more aligned with user and project expectations.
InfoFi is currently in a metamorphosis stage, and I am personally very interested in how this stage develops.
@CryptoPadawan55
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will continue to maintain its high popularity and remain a major driver of stock returns, but signs of bubbleization will gradually appear. For example, overvalued AI startups in TradFi, the internal循环 of financial promises, and long-term loan rates being 100 basis points higher than treasury yields.
Fundamentally, crypto and AI will flourish in sub-sectors like Provenance and automation. Models that work in Web2 also apply to Web3, but in Web3, technologies like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKPs) can more efficiently maintain data provenance to distinguish what is real from what is AI-generated in specific scenarios.
We will not see the first mainstream consumer app using Large Language Models (LLMs) with over 500 million Monthly Active Users (MAU) in 2026. 95% of AI's value to humanity will come from consumer apps utilizing the best LLMs. However, the competition at the "LLM Frontier" needs to be prioritized first, which will take at least 3 to 5 years.
A "hallucinatory" ChatGPT misinterpretation or completely fabricated provenance and data does not create real fundamental value.
The current apps with the highest MAU are mainly in generative voice, text, video, and audio. As profit margins and competition intensify, AI slop and bot problems will worsen in 2026. Platforms will more strictly distinguish generated content from human-created content. The more AI slop and bot networks, the stronger the user backlash and the louder the calls for change.
@0xmars_- @moonpay
2025 marked a significant turning point for fintech's migration on-chain. Financial applications are no longer just integrating cryptocurrency; they are rebuilding their tech stack directly on blockchain.
This shift is thanks to the simultaneous maturation of two key infrastructure pieces:
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On/Off Ramps: Evolved from infrastructure to scalable, UX-focused on-ramps to on-chain finance that anyone can easily use.
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Stablecoins: Have become the default way to hold and transfer value on-chain. This is not just the emergence of new infrastructure but the base layer for global capital flows, a world where value can flow as freely as information on the internet.
2025 became a key node for fintech moving towards blockchain. Financial applications are no longer simply integrating cryptocurrency but rebuilding their technology stack on blockchain infrastructure. This shift benefits from the synchronous maturation of two major foundational modules: on one hand, the channels between fiat and cryptocurrency (on/off ramps) have developed from infrastructure into a user-experience-focused, scalable entry layer, making on-chain finance more accessible to anyone; on the other hand, stablecoins have become the default method for on-chain value storage and circulation.
This is not just the rise of new infrastructure but the construction of a foundational layer for global value circulation. In this new world, the flow of value will be as free and unobstructed as internet information.
@sakshimiishra - @a1research__
The US dollar's share of global reserves is declining, indicating capital is shifting from the dollar (the fiat global reserve currency) to hard assets like gold. However, since gold is a physical asset, it comes with its own set of problems, making Bitcoin an ideal asset for parking capital. Many countries have already started considering adding Bitcoin to their reserves, and more are likely to follow.
Tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA) is also developing rapidly, and institutional adoption and on-chain operations of tokenized assets will become more aggressive. In 2025, institutions mainly invested in crypto through Digital Asset Trusts (DATs), but by 2026, these institutions will be directly operating on-chain.
However, once institutions enter the on-chain environment, transparency will become a challenge, so many blockchains will adopt a "Privacy as a Service" operational model. This means that on currently popular blockchains, users will be able to choose to set their activities to private mode.
I expect market volatility to continue into Q1 2025, but Bitcoin prices will see strong performance in Q2, followed by some altcoins (altcoins) catching up. But as we've observed in this cycle, there are few ultimate winners, so investment positioning needs to be cautious.
@darrencamas- @ipor_io
With the US midterm elections approaching, sustained interest rate cuts have triggered a risk-on market rally, Treasury yields have fallen, and DeFi stablecoin lending optimizers offer good risk-reward. Ethena's rates have rebounded, the return of native DeFi yield-bearing stablecoins and their looping strategies has created many carry trade opportunities for new types of Real World Asset (RWA) collateral entering the market.
In the three areas of lending optimization, leverage looping strategies, and carry trades, DeFi Fusion is developing comprehensively.
@route2fi
I am optimistic about the overall prospects of the crypto industry but not bullish on altcoins. I think the altcoin market is nearing saturation; in the past three months, we've witnessed countless ICO projects drop 50%-70% within 24 hours of their Token Generation Event (TGE).
The crypto industry is constantly evolving, and I believe we are transitioning from a stage of "fanatically promoting altcoins" to one of "focusing on the actual use cases of protocols." In my view, this is a positive change because we don't need more tokens without practical utility.
Looking ahead to 2026, I think we will see more dominance from Traditional Finance (TradFi). KYC-gated products like stocks (including spot/perpetuals) and leveraged products in prediction markets will rise. Furthermore, I believe TradFi will dominate this industry. People like us will no longer be hired based on what we post on Twitter in the future. That said, I think we still have a 2-5 year window.
unexployed - VC Fund
"'Spray and pray' venture capital is dead. Nowadays, projects prefer to validate their product through a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) and then raise funds through public offerings. Many VC firms have shut down and turned to providing services, consulting, market making, and Over-The-Counter (OTC) trading, trying to maintain a private edge over retail investors. However, many will realize they have no advantage in these areas either. The closure of these funds is an inevitable and healthy shakeout process for this industry. Some brave VCs are turning to liquid markets, entering this arena as equal competitors."
@defipleb - Chad memecoin trader
In crypto trading, the market often swings rapidly between extreme greed and extreme fear. Eventually, we will return to a state of extreme greed—altcoins will recover, and everything will stabilize.
Pay attention to emerging narratives like robotics and prediction markets; these areas are attracting significant capital and might offer the most promising opportunities in the future.
@0xasrequired - @lifiprotocol
The four-year cycle seems to still hold, so I expect the market to trend downward for most of 2026, and there might even be a "black swan event" (will more "10/10" events emerge?). However, due to the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), this time it might not be as bad as 2022 and 2018.
I think orderbook DEXs will continue to capture market mind share, and their Token Generation Events (TGEs) will perform better relative to the market because they are the "cash cows" of crypto. Although the tokens and revenue data of some perpetual DEXs might be inflated by token emissions, I don't think it's a bubble (these might be "famous last words") because I don't believe airdrop incentives are unsustainable. In crypto, we are used to similar narratives eventually turning into "euthanasia coasters," but I think we are witnessing genuine market growth.
Hyperliquid currently still has 42.888% of the HYPE token supply allocated for airdrops, and there have been no clear incentives since November 2024. I believe HYPE's airdrops can last for over a decade, while other perpetual DEXs might try to replicate Hyperliquid's (expected) model of multiple airdrops to avoid exhausting resources overnight and losing most users. Besides the DEXs themselves, I also expect most builder applications, including non-Hyperliquid builders and HIP-3 DEXs, to conduct multiple airdrops. Even if they don't, there will be no shortage of new airdrop projects emerging.
3. Predictions from Castle Friends
@joshuacheong - @mantle_official
Real World Assets (RWAs) are moving from experimentation to scaling—from the current market size of about $36 billion, they are expected to move towards the trillion-dollar target within this decade. Fixed-income assets first proved market demand, and the over 100x growth of tokenized stocks in one year revealed the next growth driver. In 2026, the utilization of assets will be more important than issuance volume: assets that can be collateralized for loans, traded 24/7, and reused in DeFi will dominate. Institutional adoption will deepen through infrastructure like on-chain settlement and messaging layers, rather than relying on retail-facing brands.
Retail participation will accelerate as the minimum investment threshold drops from millions of dollars to a few dollars, while liquidity remains open on weekends. The huge gap between the current 0.01% tokenization penetration rate and the real market size is where the potential opportunity lies. Liquidity fragmentation remains a limiting factor, and interoperability will be the release valve. By 2026, the benchmark for RWA will not be the total value of assets on-chain, but how frequently those assets move.
@dabit3- @eigencloud
Three things saw breakthrough progress in 2025:
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Cryptocurrency gained real legitimacy in traditional finance;
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AI agents achieved real product-market fit with crypto primitives;
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x402 opened a new chapter for massive internet-native payments. In the past, people often asked "Why use crypto for this?" Now, we have a clear answer: "Why not use crypto?"
@sukiorlove- @chaoslabs
DeFi will only get more complex. Over the past year, market activity has focused on advanced looping strategies like those of Ethena and Pendle, and projects like Maple have started following similar trading structures.
Yield-bearing stablecoins will diversify significantly: more risk tranches, more source diversity, and products designed around predictable risk/return models, rather than just chasing the highest (unadjusted risk) yield.
DeFi is also showing more layering. Assets are starting to behave like L1s, lending protocols like L2s, and Vaults like L3s—each layer packaging risk, liquidity, and composability differently. This "stacked abstraction" will significantly improve market efficiency, especially as more quantitatively sophisticated participants enter the market, bringing tighter pricing, faster arbitrage, and more efficient capital allocation.
The narrative debate around liquidity fragmentation vs. risk isolation will continue. Until Total Value Locked (TVL) grows by orders of magnitude, there will be no clear "winner."
@Oxwizzdom
Privacy technology will become a moat and, while maturing, will be deeply integrated into emerging crypto fields, from prediction markets to stablecoins; projects like MiragePrivacy have already shown early cases of this fusion.
New forms of prediction markets also began to emerge at the end of 2025, such as projects like Bentodotfun, Predictdotfun, and 42space.
Furthermore, Solana's x402 activity will increase rapidly, mainly from projects like Tempo, Arc, etc. Most businesses will prefer Solana's neutrality, which will also drive network activity growth.
At the same time, the release speed of new L2 protocols may slow down, as investors, institutions, and users increasingly value product-market fit and practical application value over pure Transactions Per Second (TPS).
@xbteneighty - @theblock__
The high fragmentation of the entire ecosystem (L1s/L2s/DeFi) leads to increased reliance on interoperability protocols and intent systems.
Stablecoins, Perpetuals (Perps), and privacy technology become the focus for institutions and new entrants.
User Experience (UX) has improved across the tech stack, and non-native users (i.e., average users outside crypto) will become the new primary target audience.
@litocoen - @socketprotocol
I think we have long been in a bear market; accepting this reality and stopping comparing your portfolio to All-Time Highs (ATH) will make you happier and more successful. Why are we in a bear market? In one word: Uncertainty. I don't need to list all the factors; just look at the state of the world today. As key issues are gradually resolved (like tariffs, war, quantum computing, etc.) or priced in by the market, this uncertainty will improve over time. But for now, it hangs over us like the sword of Damocles.
Besides being in a bear market, the crypto industry is also experiencing a "changing of the guard." The "bubble years" are over, Wall Street and Silicon Valley are entering, bringing their Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios, Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), and Unit Economics. I am personally excited about this new phase. I think we will see an unprecedented acceleration in product development and utility in crypto. Over the past two years,
Hyperliquid and Ethena's two exceptional founders scaled their products at an astonishing speed into multi-billion dollar businesses and built better products than the crypto industry had in the past decade.
I don't have a clear summary yet on how to prepare for this new phase of the crypto industry, other than paying close attention to market dynamics and deeply understanding founders' capabilities. I will share more as my thoughts become clearer. By the way, this doesn't mean only banks and Wall Street will benefit from the next era. Far from it. Crypto-native market strategies (e.g., token incentives, globalization, highly active user bases, etc.) still have advantages, and cyberpunk ideas like privacy have more Product-Market Fit (PMF) than ever. I just think the deck will be reshuffled. Some DeFi founders who can't adapt to this new phase will be eliminated; others will thrive, and new players will emerge.
Areas I'm bullish on include:
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Credit: Projects like USDai or Daylight, issuing credit for infrastructure expansion and financing based on data model investment underwriting.
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DeFi Innovation: For example, Fluid, improving capital efficiency by merging money markets and DEXs into one (I think DEX v2 will make them the #1 DEX), and protocols that make DeFi yield more accessible to the outside world (e.g., aggregation, tranching, interest rate swaps, etc.).
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Exchanges: The trend of "Perpification of Everything" is becoming more obvious, and the migration of perpetual trading on-chain is very clear. I think we will see a dynamic similar to Centralized Exchanges (CEX), eventually resulting in five major players. Currently, Hyperliquid is the leader, but Lighter, Extended, Ethereal, and Ostium are also strong contenders (Hyena is not a real competitor because it's built on Hyperliquid).
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Prediction Markets: The CFTC's decision to legitimize prediction markets is a major milestone for them. Although prediction markets are not an inherent part of crypto, as a completely new industry, it makes sense for all major players to use crypto tech (like stablecoins, smart contracts for market resolution, tokenization for composability). Polymarket and Kalshi will likely launch tokens, and we will also see upstream innovation (like lending markets, professional terminals like Fireplace.gg).
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Neobanks & SuperApps: Integrating all crypto primitives (perps, spot, stablecoins, yield) into one easy-to-use but non-custodial mobile app is still a huge potential opportunity, and the timing is right now.
Of course, there might be something completely new—that's not uncommon in this industry. We can't predict everything, but one thing is certain:
Crypto will win in the end.
Tim - DeFi Strategist
This year's market has been a rollercoaster. It started positively, ETH saw a significant correction due to politics, then hit ATHs due to Digital Asset Trust (DATs) buying and market confidence rebounding, but now the market is going down again. BTC's price range has stabilized due to the influx of TradFi capital.
Looking ahead to next year, I expect BTC's price to fluctuate between $75k and $140k, and ETH between $2k and $6k. The growth of Real World Assets (RWAs) and private credit will help diversify on-chain risk, while on-chain yields will decline further. DATs in 2026 will focus on moving assets into Vaults to generate additional yield for the underlying assets.
@crypto_linn
We've never had more tailwinds than now, but crypto seems to have lost its identity of "fighting against something." If you felt you were "fighting" against TradFi and banks, it was easier to bear market corrections, but when they participate, it gets complicated. With TradFi's entry comes their "TradFi games"... However, with a little patience, you will be rewarded. I expect 2026 to be a year of great action, especially for those who stuck with Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) during market volatility.
Also, no one can predict what surprises Pendle will bring in 2026.
@deankd_ - @rwa_xyz
Currently, the US is leading in tokenization, but Europe, especially Germany, is quickly grabbing market share. Germany's stablecoin market cap grew from about $500 million in 2025 to nearly $4 billion, largely driven by the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, attracting more institutional demand.
We will see traditional institutions and commercial banks launch a large number of tokenized money market funds. Existing institutions have realized that tokenization improves liquidity and reduces operational costs, making it an obvious direction for evolution.
The value of tokenized private credit could double, as issuers find that representing off-chain loans on-chain significantly improves operational efficiency.
In my opinion, 2026 will be the breakout year for tokenized US stocks. In contrast, corporate bonds might remain relatively subdued because the existing market structure is "good enough" for most issuers.
Overall, institutional interest has shifted from "Should we explore tokenization?" to "How quickly can we move?". I communicate with banks, regulators, and asset managers every day—it's clear that more liquidity is preparing to enter this space, especially in the first half of 2026.
Currently, most tokenized assets face Business-to-Business (B2B) go-to-market (GTM) problems, not technical issuance problems. I predict the biggest change in the tokenization space in 2026 will be in GTM strategies, not technology itself. Many people overlook basic growth principles, like being buyer-centric rather than asset-centric. Institutions won't buy any "tokenized asset"; they will only buy assets that fit their compliance and custody constraints.
@wajahat- @spreads_fi
General View on Yield (Stablecoins and Other Yield Assets):
Yield is gradually becoming commoditized overall, so simply offering a high Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is no longer enough for a business, protocol, or asset issuer to stand out. Nowadays, few yield products can build a real moat. Everything revolves around distribution capabilities.
However, there are some exceptions, such as yield categories usually completely inaccessible:
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Rysk (Options Yield)
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Yield Basis (AMM Yield, No Impermanent Loss)
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Neutrl (OTC Yield)
We will see various exotic and interesting yield products emerge from the Web2 space, like private credit and insurance yield.
DeFi yield comes entirely from speculation. If market demand for crypto leverage and speculative interest declines, then yield will crash to the level of Treasury Bill rates.
When people start speculating on BTC again, when BTC finally starts showing some upward trend (green candles), you can expect yields to rise again!
Expectations for DeFi in 2026:
2026 will welcome a huge ecosystem of tokenized stocks. Not just asset issuance, I think we will also see Automated Market Makers (AMMs), orderbooks, derivatives, yield products, etc., for almost every stock on-chain, operating as smoothly and simply as buying ETH on-chain today. (Spreads will also continue to develop deeply in this area.)
@blueclarityone- @layerzero_core
In 2025, marketing in the crypto industry matured more than any previous year. As the industry enters the early adoption phase, the role of marketing is shifting from proving relevance and attracting attention to winning trust. We've seen a clear divergence: on one hand, algorithm-driven short-term tactics aimed at virality; on the other, more long-term positioning and scaling brand strategies targeting audiences beyond the traditional DeFi core user base.
More and more large crypto brands are investing in traditional marketing channels, such as email, paid social media, research reports, and an increasingly active presence on LinkedIn. As crypto technology was effectively validated in 2025, institutional and financial service adoption accelerated, driving a lot of co-marketing (logo x logo) between brands seeking credibility and alignment with established brands outside DeFi. This momentum will continue into 2026.
At the same time, marketing messages are shifting from product-centric narratives to more emotionally resonant and identity-oriented directions, as audiences grow increasingly tired of superficial metrics, blockchain jargon, and marginal performance claims. Although attention-grabbing gimmicks are fading, brand mindshare remains a key indicator of brand relevance and share of voice, and that won't disappear in marketing.
What I'm most interested in is how user acquisition strategies will evolve next. For a new neobank powered by crypto technology, with the right execution, borrowing strategies from traditional banks, there is an opportunity to win significant market share.
@hufhaus9 - @pear_protocol
Core View for 2026: Intensified Divergence in Returns Between Quality and Junk Assets
Assets like BTC have structural buyers, such as ETF allocations. Additionally, TradFi firms' decisions to increase asset allocation from 1% to 3% could have a significant impact. Meanwhile, revenue-generating protocols can expand their product range into stocks and other Real World Assets (RWAs) previously inaccessible due to high regulatory barriers.
However, many top 100 projects still have large token unlocks pending, and this supply lacks marginal buyers. By 2026, BTC's market dominance (BTC.d) is expected to find a bottom around 60% and continue to rise throughout the year. The "Long BTC / Short Junk Assets" strategy will be validated in both bull and bear markets.
Other thematic long/short strategies I'm bullish on include:
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Long MNT / Short BNB: Worth watching as Bybit aggressively competes for CEX market share and integrates MNT's utility more deeply into its ecosystem.
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In the DEX space, competition is intensifying, and we will continue to see innovation around optimizing collateral and its yield.
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The combination of Central Limit Order Books (CLOBs) with DeFi tools is very interesting, and this trend will continue to evolve. Projects like Nado, Extended, and Hyperliquid are redefining the value proposition for users choosing these platforms for trading.
Overall, I am cautious about the macro environment, expecting BTC's price to find a bottom between $65k and $70k and gradually recover around the November 2026 midterm elections.
Hope you enjoyed these unfiltered thoughts and predictions for the coming year! Have a good rest over the holidays, and see you next year!
