The typical altcoin rally is likely to wane next year, with only “blue chip” cryptocurrencies seeing the lion’s share of liquidity, says CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko.
“Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko told Cointelegraph. “We predict no traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”
Ko anticipated “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” tempered by divergent central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin's historical sensitivity to the M2 money supply growth “has softened since the 2024 ETF launches, with correlation diminishing.”
He added that the company’s “base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026.”
However, not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting another long, drawn-out bear market.
Bitcoin to next peak in 2029
Brandt, a veteran futures trader, said on Tuesday that in 15 years, Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale followed by at least 80% declines, but the “current cycle is not done yet.”
However, when asked about the bottom of this cycle, he “projected the next bull market high to occur in September 2029.”
The prediction would line up perfectly with the four-year cycle theory and the peak coming a year after the halving event, which is due around April 2028. However, an 80% decline as seen in previous cycles could send BTC crashing back to $25,000 before that happens.
Is the four-year cycle dead?
Historically, the fourth quarter of the year has often been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. Eight of the past 12 fourth quarters have seen Bitcoin's biggest quarterly gains, and only one of them was a single-digit gain, according to Coinglass.
Related: Bitcoin's apparent demand shrinks, signals new bear market: Analysts
However, Bitcoin is down more than 22% over the current quarter, marking its second-worst fourth quarter in history so far.
Macro investing feed Milk Road said on Monday that “this usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning.”
“So for 2026, it doesn’t automatically guarantee upside, but historically, cycles that finish with a heavy reset tend to have better conditions to build strength.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high.
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