Original Author: Jose Antonio Lanz
Translation: Chopper
Earnings expectations were lowered, but the stock price rose instead. Yesterday, shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) both gained about 3-4%. This followed a report from Chicago-based investment bank William Blair, which lowered its revenue and profit expectations for Coinbase but maintained its "Outperform" rating.
William Blair's core argument is that all current negative news has been priced into the stock, and investors should continue to hold Coinbase.
The firm lowered its revenue expectations for Coinbase by 12% for 2026 and 13% for 2027; its adjusted EBITDA expectations for both years were significantly reduced by 34%. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated that the company's earnings will bottom out in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027. They advise investors to continue holding Coinbase as spot cryptocurrency trading volume bottoms alongside Bitcoin.
William Blair predicts that Coinbase's total annual trading volume will decline by approximately 44% to $669 billion; trading volume in 2027 will rebound by over 32%.
The firm believes there are structural differences between this cycle and 2022. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continuous institutional capital inflow, and a maturing regulatory framework are all positive conditions that did not exist four years ago.
The report is also optimistic about Coinbase's Ethereum layer-2 network, Base, viewing it as a potential core profit growth driver. Derivatives and prediction markets further diversify revenue sources, making the business less reliant solely on spot trading. The retail derivatives business alone generated over $200 million in annualized revenue in the first quarter.
Not all institutions are bullish on COIN's short-term trend. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his price target for COIN from $170 to $155, maintaining a Neutral rating. He stated that the key points for Q2 are prediction markets and perpetual contracts, noting that the World Cup event drove a massive surge in the scale of prediction markets. He also warned that the market in Q3 will highly focus on the potential competitive impact from perpetual contracts.
Year-to-date, COIN's stock price has fallen nearly 30%, while Bitcoin has declined about 26%. Circle was listed on the NYSE in June 2025 with an IPO price of $31, and its stock price has retreated 20% since the beginning of the year.
"W" Bottom Pattern Forming: John Bollinger Predicts Bitcoin Set for Significant Rally
Optimistic signals are also emerging on the technical front. John Bollinger, creator of the globally used volatility indicator Bollinger Bands and a veteran technical analyst, has been consistently signaling since early July that Bitcoin's daily chart is forming a crucial bottom pattern.
On July 2nd, Bollinger posted on social platform X, pointing out that the chart shows a "W" double-bottom reversal structure: two lows forming a range with a bounce in between. Once the price breaks above the resistance level between the two lows, an uptrend is formally established.
He described the current price action as a standard fractal structure, with a small "W" bottom nested inside a larger pattern, a similar structure also visible on the weekly chart. However, he objectively noted the uncertainty: this bear market has seen multiple bullish patterns that were ultimately broken by selling pressure.
In his latest update, Bollinger stated that if this "W" bottom completes, it should be regarded as a clear signal of trend reversal, marking his most explicit bullish signal to date, suggesting the move is more than just a short-term rebound.
Earlier this year, Bollinger disclosed that his investment entity holds long Bitcoin positions, aligning his views with his holdings. From a broader technical perspective, Bitcoin's overall bearish structure has not yet reversed, but downward momentum is continuously diminishing.
Has Bitcoin's Bottom Arrived?
The latest weekly report from on-chain data firm Glassnode shows that the main source of selling pressure throughout the year—panic selling by long-term holders—peaked and began to decline two weeks ago. This metric, which filters out on-chain transfer noise to measure the actual selling volume by long-term holders, has shown a downward inflection point for the first time this cycle.
The price lows in June attracted significant buying interest, with Glassnode detecting collective accumulation across wallets of various sizes. The negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index has deepened further, while its linkage with US stocks continues to weaken. The sensitivity of Bitcoin's price to positive macro news has returned: Tuesday's weaker-than-expected inflation data saw Bitcoin significantly outperform major US stock indices.
For on-chain analysts and Wall Street institutions, a core question remains: sustained buying pressure has not yet appeared in the Bitcoin spot market, which is insufficient to confirm a reversal.
While derivative positions are being unwound, long-term selling pressure is gradually weakening, and the fear premium in the options market is narrowing, incremental funds have not entered the market on a large scale. William Blair judges the market inflection point to be in 2027, predicting that Coinbase's trading volume will fall 44% this year before rebounding 32% next year.
