The crypto market is possibly setting its foot into the early stages of an elongated downturn. The analyst of Cantor Fitzgerald investment bank, Brett Knoblauch, says that this will hardly act as a preliminary stage to a more stable and institutional phase of industry development.
The analyst further mentions that the segment is in the initial stages of a winter after the recorded four-year Bitcoin cycle. Around 85 days have passed since the price peak, and it may be sustained for months.
The recent downturn is not the same as witnessed in the previous one because of the absence of mass liquidations and structural failures. The market is now mostly influenced by institutional players instead of retail traders.
The analyst also highlighted the increasing gap between token prices and real infrastructure advancement, majorly in the DeFi and RWA sectors.
Growth in Tokenisation and DeFi Infrastructure
In 2025, the volume of tokenised real-world assets witnessed a threefold increase, standing at $18.5 billion. The investment bank, Cantor, wants this figure to be pushed over $50 billion by 2026 as banks adopt on-chain settlements.
Decentralised exchanges will carry on to lay hold of market share from centralised platforms, even at the time of declining trading volumes. Knoblauch also highlighted the growth of prediction markets. The volume of bets in the sports segment passed $5.9 billion.
Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini have so far entered this niche, asking for more transparent mechanisms in contrast to traditional bookmakers. The main risk is the price of Bitcoin being only 17% over Strategy’s average purchase price.
A fall below this level could alert market participants; however, Knoblauch doubts the firm will initiate selling assets.
A Maturing Market Cycle
Cantor Fitzgerald cautioned that price recovery may remain limited through 2026. According to the bank, this crypto winter could serve as a foundation-building phase, positioning the industry for more sustainable and structurally sound growth in the years ahead.
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