Cantor Fitzgerald: Crypto Winter to Strengthen Institutions

TheNewsCrypto2025-12-30 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-12-30 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch suggests the crypto market is entering an early-stage downturn, or "crypto winter," which may last for months. Unlike previous cycles, this downturn lacks mass liquidations and structural failures, reflecting a market now dominated by institutional players rather than retail traders. The analyst notes a growing divergence between token prices and real infrastructure progress, particularly in DeFi and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Tokenized assets reached $18.5 billion in 2025 and are projected to exceed $50 billion by 2026 as banks adopt on-chain settlements. Decentralized exchanges continue gaining market share despite lower trading volumes, and prediction markets are growing, with sports betting volumes surpassing $5.9 billion. Platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini are entering this space, promoting transparency over traditional bookmakers. Cantor warns that Bitcoin's price, only 17% above Strategy’s average purchase price, could trigger concern if it falls further, though large-scale selling is unlikely. The bank views this period as a foundation-building phase, leading to more sustainable and structurally sound industry growth in the future.

The crypto market is possibly setting its foot into the early stages of an elongated downturn. The analyst of Cantor Fitzgerald investment bank, Brett Knoblauch, says that this will hardly act as a preliminary stage to a more stable and institutional phase of industry development.

The analyst further mentions that the segment is in the initial stages of a winter after the recorded four-year Bitcoin cycle. Around 85 days have passed since the price peak, and it may be sustained for months.

The recent downturn is not the same as witnessed in the previous one because of the absence of mass liquidations and structural failures. The market is now mostly influenced by institutional players instead of retail traders.

The analyst also highlighted the increasing gap between token prices and real infrastructure advancement, majorly in the DeFi and RWA sectors.

Growth in Tokenisation and DeFi Infrastructure

In 2025, the volume of tokenised real-world assets witnessed a threefold increase, standing at $18.5 billion. The investment bank, Cantor, wants this figure to be pushed over $50 billion by 2026 as banks adopt on-chain settlements.

Decentralised exchanges will carry on to lay hold of market share from centralised platforms, even at the time of declining trading volumes. Knoblauch also highlighted the growth of prediction markets. The volume of bets in the sports segment passed $5.9 billion.

Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini have so far entered this niche, asking for more transparent mechanisms in contrast to traditional bookmakers. The main risk is the price of Bitcoin being only 17% over Strategy’s average purchase price.

A fall below this level could alert market participants; however, Knoblauch doubts the firm will initiate selling assets.

A Maturing Market Cycle

Cantor Fitzgerald cautioned that price recovery may remain limited through 2026. According to the bank, this crypto winter could serve as a foundation-building phase, positioning the industry for more sustainable and structurally sound growth in the years ahead.

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İlgili Sorular

QAccording to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brett Knoblauch, what is the current state of the crypto market and how long might it last?

AThe crypto market is in the initial stages of an elongated downturn, or 'crypto winter,' which may be sustained for months.

QHow does the current market downturn differ from previous ones, as noted in the article?

AThe current downturn differs due to the absence of mass liquidations and structural failures, and the market is now mostly influenced by institutional players instead of retail traders.

QWhat significant growth was witnessed in the tokenisation of real-world assets (RWA) in 2025, and what is the target for 2026?

AThe volume of tokenised real-world assets witnessed a threefold increase in 2025, standing at $18.5 billion, and Cantor Fitzgerald wants this figure to be pushed over $50 billion by 2026.

QWhat trend does the article highlight regarding decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and centralized platforms?

ADecentralised exchanges (DEXs) will continue to gain market share from centralised platforms, even during a period of declining trading volumes.

QWhat is the main risk mentioned concerning Bitcoin's price, and what is the specific threshold?

AThe main risk is the price of Bitcoin being only 17% above Strategy’s average purchase price. A fall below this level could alert market participants.

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