Since 2019, BTC has never experienced four consecutive months of declines. Now, this pattern seems to be holding. After falling in October this year, BTC continued to decline for three months, dropping to near $80,000 at its lowest point.

Starting January 1, Bitcoin’s daily chart showed five consecutive days of gains, even breaking through $93,000 on January 5. ETH also surged strongly past $3,200. Meme coins like PEPE, BONK, PENGU, and BOME have recently taken turns topping the gainers list.

Coinglass data shows that total open interest liquidations reached $216 million in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for $168 million in liquidations.

After more than three months of sustained低迷, the Fear and Greed Index today罕见地 rose to 42, returning to a neutral market sentiment.

Global risk asset markets saw broad gains today, with Japanese and South Korean stock markets leading the rise. South Korea's KOSPI index rose over 2.27% in early trading, breaking through 4,400 points for the first time to hit a record high. Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged over 1,100 points in early trading, coming within 2% of its all-time high. China's Shanghai Composite Index opened up 0.46%, approaching 4,000 points. The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.09%.

In U.S. stocks, S&P 500 futures rose 0.46%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.26%, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.58%. Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold breaking through $4,420 per ounce, up over 2% in 24 hours, and spot silver breaking through $76 per ounce, surging 4.5%.

Is the altcoin rebound here?

Fed Injects $16 Billion in Liquidity at End of 2025

Cryptocurrencies, led by BTC, are closely tied to global market liquidity. Prices struggle to rise significantly when liquidity is low but can sustain a recovery when liquidity is ample.

On December 30, 2025, according to Barchart data, the Fed injected $16 billion into the U.S. banking system via overnight repurchase agreements, the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 pandemic.

This move is often seen by the market as a signal of the Fed's support in addressing potential bank liquidity shortages or financial stress. Although the chart shows a recent spike in injections, the overall trend reflects a shift towards looser monetary policy. In the cryptocurrency market, such liquidity injections often stimulate risk appetite, as cheap money tends to flow into high-risk asset classes, driving up crypto prices. Investors may interpret this as the Fed's unwillingness to let the economy hard-land, thereby boosting market confidence and averting more severe recession risks.

On December 31, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that crypto market liquidity may have bottomed in November and is slowly recovering, and it's time for cryptocurrencies to start rising.

Jens Naervig Pedersen, a foreign exchange and interest rate strategist at Danske Bank, said in a report that global market liquidity is expected to remain thin this week but could pick up next week. The strategist noted: "Looking ahead, market liquidity should improve next week with the release of more economic data." Key data next week includes important U.S. labor market figures, such as the December non-farm payrolls report and ISM survey due on January 9. During the year-end period, many market participants are on holiday or closing positions, which typically leads to lower liquidity.

BTC and ETH Spot ETFs See Large Net Inflows at Start of Year

After months of sluggish performance, Bitcoin spot ETF data showed a net inflow of $355 million on December 30, and another net inflow of $471.14 million on January 2.

The magnitude and momentum of this sudden growth in net inflows are relatively significant.

For ETH spot ETFs, net inflows were $67.84 million on December 30 and reached $174.43 million on January 2, setting a new high for single-day net inflows since last year December.

The current ETF data performance for both still requires continued observation, but the strong net inflow performance at the start of the year has a significant positive effect on boosting coin prices.

What's Next for the Market?

On January 3, Liquid Capital founder JackYi tweeted, "Before the 2026 bull market, shorts closing early lose small, those closing later will lose big and惨. Those still bearish now are either all talk or cannon fodder. After more than a month of consolidation, the longs will surely扬眉吐气. The pessimist is always 'right,' the optimist always moves forward."

On the same day, 10x Research also published an article hinting at potential structural rebound opportunities in the market. "Beneath the surface of the crypto market, important changes are happening. As Bitcoin's dominance begins to decline, our models are detecting key turning signals that historically mark a shift from defense to opportunity. This cycle's focus isn't on a single token or narrative, but the broad协同 validation格局 forming between major coins and selected altcoins. Momentum effects, relative performance, and market participation are beginning to resonate, something traders cannot ignore.

10x Research stated that the current environment is not a broad-based rally, nor is it suitable for passive waiting. The next phase will test discipline, strategic rules, and active position management more; clear risk control will be key to distinguishing profit-takers from market noise. While most investors wait for headlines to guide direction, traders should focus on market structure and signal validation.

Analysts from the blockchain analytics platform Santiment pointed out that cryptocurrency market participants showed strong sentiment on social media at the start of the year but warned that further market gains depend on whether retail investors can stay rational. "We need retail to maintain a certain level of caution, a certain level of pessimism, and a certain level of impatience," Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan said in a YouTube video released on Saturday. Although other crypto sentiment indicators show fear among market participants, Quinlivan said Santiment's social media data points in the opposite direction. "The current sentiment is very positive," he said, "which is usually somewhat concerning, but this time it might just be a normal rebound after the holidays." Quinlivan said he isn't overly worried about "a lot of FOMO sentiment emerging" but added that if Bitcoin quickly climbs to $92,000, such sentiment could flood the market.

However, data charts also show some pessimistic sentiment in the market.

glassnode recently tweeted that the slowdown in fund inflows coincides with long-term holders increasing their realized losses. This situation is gradually emerging as BTC price fluctuates within a narrow range. This reflects growing investor fatigue over time, a common feature of prolonged bear market phases.