Bitwise files for prediction market ETF: Election bets to go mainstream?

ambcrypto2026-02-18 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-02-18 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Bitwise has filed for a prediction market ETF called "PredictionShares," focusing on event contracts tied to U.S. election outcomes in 2026 and 2028. This move follows a similar filing by Roundhill Investments, signaling growing interest from TradFi in crypto-based prediction markets. Analysts expect more players to enter the space, citing the "ETF-ization of everything." The segment saw record growth, reaching $12.4 billion in monthly volume in January. However, regulatory uncertainty persists: the CFTC supports these markets as hedging tools, while many states view them as gambling and seek stricter oversight.

After stablecoins went mainstream with TradFi support last year, prediction markets seem poised to become the next success in crypto. Top players are positioning themselves for the potential growth despite regulatory uncertainty.

Prediction market ETF race heats up

Digital asset manager Bitwise filed for a prediction market-backed ETF under the brand ‘PredictionShares,’ noted Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

The filing was event contracts eyeing election outcomes in 2026 and 2028 across the House, Senate, and presidential candidates.

Interestingly, the move echoed its 2026 outlook. Bitwise projected that prediction site Polymarket would hit a record high in open interest ahead of the 2026 midterms.

“With U.S. midterms approaching and politics coming back into the frame, the platform will be firing on all cylinders in 2026.”

The update also comes a few days after Roundhill Investments made the first move on the prediction market ETF race. And Seyffart expected more players would join the race.

“This is not the first filing of this kind, and I think it’s extremely unlikely that these will be the last. The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues.”

Now Bitwise has made its move, and another firm, GraniteShares, has also shown interest in the prediction markets within the political segment.

Besides, top trading firms such as Susquehanna (SIG) are also positioning for the market boom.

CFTC clashes with states

Prediction markets or event contracts are derivatives that allow users to speculate on future outcomes.

For supporters, they involve users putting money on the line, which makes prediction markets’ data (odds and probability figures) more robust in risk management and hedging than that from traditional surveys.

As such, major players, especially from the crypto industry, are rallying behind Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) chair Mike Selig to defend the federal regulator’s oversight in the segment.

According to supporters, these are useful hedging tools that should be allowed to flourish, blaming states for overreach.

However, most local states view prediction markets as gambling, no different from sports betting, and call for strict regulation and oversight. It remains to be seen whether CFTC will have the sole jurisdiction in the space.

That said, the segment has recorded significant growth since the 2024 U.S. elections. In January 2026, the segment reached a new all-time monthly volume of $12.4 billion, surpassing $10 billion for the first time.

Final Summary

  • TradFi players are positioning for the prediction markets boom, with ETF issuers eyeing the 2026 midterms.
  • The segment crossed $10 billion of monthly volume for the first time in January.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat is the main focus of Bitwise's newly filed ETF under the 'PredictionShares' brand?

ABitwise filed for a prediction market-backed ETF focused on event contracts tied to election outcomes in 2026 and 2028, covering the House, Senate, and presidential candidates.

QWhich other investment firm was mentioned as making the first move in the prediction market ETF race before Bitwise?

ARoundhill Investments was the first to make a move in the prediction market ETF race before Bitwise filed its application.

QWhat is the key regulatory challenge facing prediction markets according to the article?

APrediction markets face regulatory uncertainty as most U.S. states view them as gambling and call for strict regulation, while supporters argue they are useful hedging tools and advocate for CFTC oversight instead of state-level restrictions.

QWhat significant milestone did the prediction market segment achieve in January 2026?

AIn January 2026, the prediction market segment reached a record monthly volume of $12.4 billion, surpassing $10 billion for the first time.

QWhich major trading firm is mentioned as positioning itself for the prediction market boom?

ASusquehanna (SIG), a top trading firm, is positioning itself for the expected growth in prediction markets.

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