Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The Long Night Is at Its Deepest, a Glimmer of Light for the Crypto Market Is Near

marsbit2026-02-03 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-02-03 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer asserts that the crypto market has been in a severe winter since January 2025, though its end is likely nearer than its beginning. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 39% and 53% from their October 2025 peaks, respectively, many other assets have fallen even more sharply. This isn't a typical bull market pullback but a full-scale crypto winter, driven by over-leverage and large-scale profit-taking by early investors. Despite positive developments in adoption and regulation, prices continue to fall because bear markets often ignore good news. Historically, crypto winters last around 13 months. However, the current downturn may have started earlier than perceived, as massive inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with crypto treasury products (DATs), masked underlying weakness in the broader market. These institutional purchases, totaling approximately $75 billion in Bitcoin alone, provided crucial support floor—without which declines could have been much steeper. The market is now categorized into three groups: assets with strong institutional support (like BTC and ETH) saw milder declines; those with recent ETF approvals fell more significantly; and assets without such backing experienced severe drops. The current climate feels hopeless, but the fundamental strengths of crypto—regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and real-world utility—remain intact. These positive factors are accumulating potential that is likely to trigger...

The bad news is: We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. The good news is: We are likely closer to the end of the winter than to its beginning.

I want to state something obvious, because I believe it will help you make beneficial decisions in the coming months: We are in a full-blown crypto winter.

I find that few people online or in the mainstream media are talking about this, but it is an indisputable fact. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, Ethereum is down 53%, and many other crypto assets have fallen even more.

It's important to recognize it for what it is. This is not a bull market correction, nor a dip. This is a full-blown, harsh winter comparable to 2022, as brutal as what Leonardo DiCaprio endured in *The Revenant*. The causes of this winter range from excessive leverage to large-scale profit-taking by early players.

For me, acknowledging and accepting this has made everything incredibly clear.

Why are crypto prices falling despite continuous positive news in areas like adoption and regulation? Because we are in the deep end of the crypto winter. Why is the new Fed Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone? Because we are in a crypto winter.

Those who experienced the past winters of 2018 or 2022 will remember that in the depths of winter, positive news means nothing. We won't see a rebound just because Wall Street is hiring aggressively or Morgan Stanley is increasing its crypto exposure. These things are important in the long term, but not now. Crypto winter doesn't end in euphoria; it ends in exhaustion.

So, when will the winter end? The good news is: I believe we are nearing the end.

The Historical Pattern of Crypto Winters

Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018; it peaked in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.

By this cycle's logic, we still have a difficult period ahead. After all, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, so wouldn't we have to wait until November 2026? I don't think so.

After further analysis of the current winter, I've become increasingly aware that it actually started in January 2025. We just couldn't see it because inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) masked the truth.

ETF and DAT Flows Masked the 2025 Winter

Take a close look at this chart of the performance of the components of the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index since January 1, 2025.

They clearly fall into three categories:

· First-category assets (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%

· Second-category assets (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%

· Third-category assets (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%

The core difference between these three categories essentially boils down to whether institutions have channels to invest in them. First-category assets received massive support from ETF/DAT inflows throughout the year; second-category assets had ETFs approved in 2025; third-category assets never did. (Note: XRP is an exception. It didn't have an ETF at the start of 2025 but performed well. The reason might be that XRP faced a life-or-death lawsuit from the U.S. SEC at the start of 2025, which was dropped in early 2025, leading to a significant rally for the asset.)

The scale of institutional support is staggering. For example, during the period shown in the chart, ETFs and DATs cumulatively bought 744,417 Bitcoin, worth approximately $75 billion. Imagine where Bitcoin would be without this $75 billion of support? I suspect it would be down about 60%.

The retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutional money just masked this fact for some assets for a while.

It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

What needs to be remembered right now is that there is a lot of tangible, positive development happening in crypto. Regulatory progress is real, institutional adoption is real, stablecoins and asset tokenization are real, and Wall Street's embrace is real.

In a bear market, positive news gets ignored, but it doesn't disappear. It gets stored as potential energy. Once the clouds part and market sentiment returns to normal, this pent-up energy is released in a vengeful manner. What can disperse the clouds? Strong economic growth triggering a broad risk-asset rally, positive signals from the Clarity Act, signs of sovereign nation Bitcoin adoption, or simply the passage of time.

As a veteran who has lived through multiple crypto winters, I can tell you that the feeling right before the winter ends feels very much like this: despair, helplessness, gloom. But the current market pullback has done nothing to change the fundamentals of the crypto market.

I believe we will rebound faster and more violently. After all, the winter started in January 2025. Spring can't be far away.

Trend Kriptolar

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Velodrome FinanceVELODROME

BrevisBREV

ZRX（0X）ZRX

PancakeSwapCAKE

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the Bitwise CIO, when did the crypto winter actually begin, and what masked its early signs?

AThe crypto winter actually began in January 2025, but its early signs were masked by massive inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs), which provided significant institutional buying support for certain assets like Bitcoin.

QWhat are the three categories of crypto asset performance since January 1, 2025, as described in the article, and what was the key differentiating factor?

AThe three categories are: 1) Assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP that performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%. 2) Assets like SOL, LTC, and LINK that experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%. 3) Assets like ADA, AVAX, SUI, and DOT that were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%. The key differentiating factor was whether the assets had a channel for institutional investment (via ETFs/DATs).

QWhy does the author believe that positive news in areas like adoption and regulation fails to boost crypto prices during a deep crypto winter?

AThe author states that during the depths of a crypto winter, positive news becomes meaningless for price action. The market ignores good news because sentiment is dominated by fear and exhaustion; the winter doesn't end in a frenzy of excitement but rather when the selling is exhausted.

QBased on historical patterns, how long do crypto winters typically last, and why does the author think the current one might end sooner than a simple pattern extrapolation would suggest?

AHistorically, crypto winters have lasted about 13 months. A simple extrapolation from the October 2025 peak would suggest a bottom around November 2026. However, the author believes it will end sooner because the analysis shows the winter actually began in January 2025, meaning the market has already been in a downturn for a significant period.

QWhat does the author conclude about the state of crypto fundamentals despite the current price downturn?

AThe author concludes that the current price downturn has not changed the strong fundamentals of the crypto market. Progress in regulation, institutional adoption, stablecoins, asset tokenization, and Wall Street's embrace are all real. This positive energy is being stored as potential energy and will be released in a powerful, retaliatory manner once market sentiment returns to normal.

İlgili Okumalar

The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Title: The Shifting Landscape of Crypto Venture Capital The era of dedicated crypto venture capital funds is undergoing a significant transformation. Once essential for navigating the sector's complexity and high risk, these specialized funds are now facing an identity crisis as the market matures. This shift mirrors historical patterns in other specialized investment classes like cleantech and SPACs, where initial information advantages dissipate as technologies become mainstream and integrated into existing industry frameworks. The article argues that crypto is reaching a critical inflection point, transitioning from a "building phase" to an "integration phase." Major players like Stripe, BlackRock, and Visa now engage with crypto not for its novel mechanics but as a foundational financial infrastructure. Their needs—regulatory compliance, banking partnerships, distribution channels—align with traditional fintech, a domain easily understood by large, generalist funds like Sequoia and Founders Fund. This evolution creates a "barbell effect" within the VC landscape. On one end are massive, diversified platforms that can incorporate crypto as one vertical among many. On the other are small, nimble funds focused on niche, experimental projects. The middle ground—medium-sized dedicated crypto funds—is being squeezed out. Their typical fund size makes it impossible to generate sufficient returns solely from early-stage crypto bets, yet they cannot compete with giants for later-stage deals. Consequently, leading crypto-native firms like Paradigm and Framework Ventures are expanding into AI, robotics, and other sectors, driven partly by LP pressure for better returns amid a broader VC DPI crisis. Others, like Dragonfly and a16z, have narrowed their crypto focus predominantly to financial infrastructure like stablecoins, reframing the sector's core narrative. For crypto entrepreneurs, this consolidation presents challenges. While generalist funds offer larger checks and broader resources, crypto projects now compete fiercely with AI for attention and capital within these firms. Furthermore, the long-term, non-commercial foundational work that built the ecosystem—funded by dedicated crypto VCs—is less likely to attract generalist capital focused on direct returns. The conclusion is that "crypto investor" as a standalone category is becoming obsolete, akin to "internet investor." Crypto is becoming a baseline infrastructure layer. The future will see a barbell structure: large-scale growth financing handled by generalist funds, while pioneering, speculative projects are funded by small, specialized vehicles. The dedicated crypto funds of the 2017-2021 boom, which incubated core infrastructure, are giving way to this new, bifurcated reality.

Foresight News5 dk önce

The Changing Landscape: What Are Crypto VCs Experiencing?

Foresight News5 dk önce

As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

Title: As Consensus Forms Faster, What Are Young Investors Betting On? In the rapid evolution of tech investment, a new generation of young investors is navigating a landscape where AI, robotics, commercial aerospace, and quantum computing are advancing simultaneously. Traditional investment logic based on financial models is giving way to a need for deep technical understanding and the ability to act before industry consensus forms. An analysis of trends from the "WAIC FUTURE TECH" list of young investment leaders reveals key shifts in focus. The first major trend is the movement of AI from the digital screen into the physical world. Investment is shifting from large language models and chatbots towards embodied AI, robotics, AI hardware, and edge computing. While demonstrations generate excitement, the real challenge lies in achieving scalable, reliable, and cost-effective delivery in complex real-world environments like factories and logistics. Success depends not just on algorithms but on the integration of sensors, actuators, and control systems. Second, the competitive focus for large models is moving beyond raw capability toward building an "intelligence flywheel." The goal is to create self-reinforcing systems where user interaction generates data, improving the model, which in turn enhances the user experience and attracts more engagement. Companies that successfully embed AI into workflows to create these closed-loop systems can build lasting value that isn't easily erased by the next model upgrade. Third, facing a potential bottleneck in high-quality human-generated data, investors are looking at new underlying technologies. Reinforcement learning and self-play, as demonstrated by AlphaGo Zero, offer paths for AI to generate its own experience. Scientific foundation models, which aim to build general AI capabilities for fields like life sciences and materials discovery, represent a non-consensus direction that could unlock new frontiers of knowledge and data. Finally, in deep-tech areas like quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and space-based infrastructure, patient capital is essential. These fields have long, uncertain development and validation cycles involving complex engineering, supply chains, and regulations. Investment here requires a long-term view, focusing on foundational team capabilities and the eventual emergence of market demand, even if commercial returns are distant. Collectively, these trends illustrate how young investors are adapting to a new era. They are learning to make earlier, technically-informed judgments, balance hype with real-world viability, and provide the patient capital needed to build the deep-tech foundations of the future.

marsbit33 dk önce

As Consensus Accelerates, What Are Young Investors Betting On?

marsbit33 dk önce

Unlocking $100 Million in Liquidity? Pump.fun's New Policy Tests the 5-Minute Pump Technique

Foresight News, July 21 – Pump.fun has launched its new "BOOST" mode as the standard launch mechanism for new tokens. The core of BOOST is to address the issue of "dead liquidity." Historically, when a token migrates from its bonding curve to a liquidity pool, roughly 20% of its liquidity becomes permanently locked and unusable, a problem the platform estimates costs over $100 million annually. The new mechanism redirects this 20% of funds, which would have been locked, to instead be used for a 5-minute Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) buyback of the token immediately after migration. The purchased tokens are then permanently burned. For example, this means reserving 17.6 SOL for SOL pairs or about $2516 for USDC pairs at migration. This creates a short-term buying pressure and reduces the token's supply. The goal is to improve the immediate post-launch performance of memecoins, potentially increasing trader retention and transaction volume on the platform. However, critics warn this could lower the bar for token launches, encouraging low-quality projects, and that the brief 5-minute buy pressure might lead to sharper price crashes once it ends if followed by large sell-offs.

Foresight News43 dk önce

Unlocking $100 Million in Liquidity? Pump.fun's New Policy Tests the 5-Minute Pump Technique

Foresight News43 dk önce

What Signals Can Be Read from the Trading Data of India's Largest Asset Manager SBI's IPO?

India's largest asset manager, SBI Funds Management, successfully listed on July 21 with a nearly $10 billion IPO, attracting approximately 42 times subscription. However, the first-day closing price rose only about 6.3%, falling short of the 16% premium anticipated in the grey market. This signals robust demand for core Indian financial assets but also disciplined pricing, indicating the IPO market is selectively open for strong brands with clear growth narratives. The low reported underwriting fees, which led some global banks to reduce participation, highlight a shift in pricing power towards powerful issuers like SBI. Its strong brand, banking parent, and stable cash flows reduced reliance on traditional investment banking sales channels, with local brokers playing a larger role. This fee dynamic may not be replicable for weaker issuers. SBI's performance is seen as a key test for India's IPO pipeline, including potential future large listings like Reliance Jio and NSE. Its success with tempered gains sets a new price anchor: high-quality assets can launch, but excessive valuation premiums are constrained. The true measure of a sustained market reopening will be whether subsequent major offerings can proceed smoothly at reasonable valuations.

marsbit1 saat önce

What Signals Can Be Read from the Trading Data of India's Largest Asset Manager SBI's IPO?

marsbit1 saat önce

Can Japan Buy Growth with AI? Will the Bond Market Believe It?

Japan's cabinet has introduced the 2026 Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform, shifting its primary fiscal target. The new framework moves away from the traditional annual primary balance goal and instead prioritizes a stable reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio. This change is tied to a strategy of increased "responsible proactive fiscal" spending, aiming to boost long-term growth through investments in strategic sectors like AI, semiconductors, energy, and robotics. The government estimates total public and private investment in 62 key technologies could exceed 370 trillion yen by 2040. The market reaction has been mixed and cautious. While equity markets may respond to policy signals, bond markets are focused on fiscal credibility. Concerns center on whether the weakening of the clear primary balance anchor could lead to looser fiscal discipline. If investors doubt that these strategic investments will generate sufficient productivity gains, tax revenue, and nominal growth to outpace rising interest costs, they may demand higher yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). Recent volatility in the yen and JGB yields, with the 10-year yield briefly reaching 2.9%, reflects this skepticism. The success of this new framework hinges on two factors: whether Japan can achieve a nominal growth rate consistently higher than its long-term interest rates, and whether future budgets demonstrate disciplined control over bond issuance. The government's narrative is that strategic investment is essential to break Japan's cycle of low growth, aging, and labor shortages. However, the bond market will continuously assess the credibility of this plan, pricing the risk that it may represent fiscal expansion rather than a viable growth strategy.

marsbit1 saat önce

Can Japan Buy Growth with AI? Will the Bond Market Believe It?

marsbit1 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot

Popüler Makaleler

NIGHT Nasıl Satın Alınır

HTX.com’a hoş geldiniz! Midnight (NIGHT) satın alma işlemlerini basit ve kullanışlı bir hâle getirdik. Adım adım açıkladığımız rehberimizi takip ederek kripto yolculuğunuza başlayın. 1. Adım: HTX Hesabınızı OluşturunHTX'te ücretsiz bir hesap açmak için e-posta adresinizi veya telefon numaranızı kullanın. Sorunsuzca kaydolun ve tüm özelliklerin kilidini açın. Hesabımı Aç2. Adım: Kripto Satın Al Bölümüne Gidin ve Ödeme Yönteminizi SeçinKredi/Banka Kartı: Visa veya Mastercard'ınızı kullanarak anında Midnight (NIGHT) satın alın.Bakiye: Sorunsuz bir şekilde işlem yapmak için HTX hesap bakiyenizdeki fonları kullanın.Üçüncü Taraflar: Kullanımı kolaylaştırmak için Google Pay ve Apple Pay gibi popüler ödeme yöntemlerini ekledik.P2P: HTX'teki diğer kullanıcılarla doğrudan işlem yapın.Borsa Dışı (OTC): Yatırımcılar için kişiye özel hizmetler ve rekabetçi döviz kurları sunuyoruz.3. Adım: Midnight (NIGHT) Varlıklarınızı SaklayınMidnight (NIGHT) satın aldıktan sonra HTX hesabınızda saklayın. Alternatif olarak, blok zinciri transferi yoluyla başka bir yere gönderebilir veya diğer kripto para birimlerini takas etmek için kullanabilirsiniz.4. Adım: Midnight (NIGHT) Varlıklarınızla İşlem YapınHTX'in spot piyasasında Midnight (NIGHT) ile kolayca işlemler yapın.Hesabınıza erişin, işlem çiftinizi seçin, işlemlerinizi gerçekleştirin ve gerçek zamanlı olarak izleyin. Hem yeni başlayanlar hem de deneyimli yatırımcılar için kullanıcı dostu bir deneyim sunuyoruz.

343 Toplam GörüntülenmeYayınlanma 2025.12.08Güncellenme 2026.06.02

Tartışmalar

HTX Topluluğuna hoş geldiniz. Burada, en son platform gelişmeleri hakkında bilgi sahibi olabilir ve profesyonel piyasa görüşlerine erişebilirsiniz. Kullanıcıların NIGHT (NIGHT) fiyatı hakkındaki görüşleri aşağıda sunulmaktadır.