Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: The Long Night Is at Its Deepest, a Glimmer of Light for the Crypto Market Is Near

marsbit2026-02-03 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-02-03 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer asserts that the crypto market has been in a severe winter since January 2025, though its end is likely nearer than its beginning. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 39% and 53% from their October 2025 peaks, respectively, many other assets have fallen even more sharply. This isn't a typical bull market pullback but a full-scale crypto winter, driven by over-leverage and large-scale profit-taking by early investors. Despite positive developments in adoption and regulation, prices continue to fall because bear markets often ignore good news. Historically, crypto winters last around 13 months. However, the current downturn may have started earlier than perceived, as massive inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, along with crypto treasury products (DATs), masked underlying weakness in the broader market. These institutional purchases, totaling approximately $75 billion in Bitcoin alone, provided crucial support floor—without which declines could have been much steeper. The market is now categorized into three groups: assets with strong institutional support (like BTC and ETH) saw milder declines; those with recent ETF approvals fell more significantly; and assets without such backing experienced severe drops. The current climate feels hopeless, but the fundamental strengths of crypto—regulatory progress, institutional adoption, and real-world utility—remain intact. These positive factors are accumulating potential that is likely to trigger...

The bad news is: We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. The good news is: We are likely closer to the end of the winter than to its beginning.

I want to state something obvious, because I believe it will help you make beneficial decisions in the coming months: We are in a full-blown crypto winter.

I find that few people online or in the mainstream media are talking about this, but it is an indisputable fact. Bitcoin is down 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, Ethereum is down 53%, and many other crypto assets have fallen even more.

It's important to recognize it for what it is. This is not a bull market correction, nor a dip. This is a full-blown, harsh winter comparable to 2022, as brutal as what Leonardo DiCaprio endured in *The Revenant*. The causes of this winter range from excessive leverage to large-scale profit-taking by early players.

For me, acknowledging and accepting this has made everything incredibly clear.

Why are crypto prices falling despite continuous positive news in areas like adoption and regulation? Because we are in the deep end of the crypto winter. Why is the new Fed Chair a Bitcoin supporter, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone? Because we are in a crypto winter.

Those who experienced the past winters of 2018 or 2022 will remember that in the depths of winter, positive news means nothing. We won't see a rebound just because Wall Street is hiring aggressively or Morgan Stanley is increasing its crypto exposure. These things are important in the long term, but not now. Crypto winter doesn't end in euphoria; it ends in exhaustion.

So, when will the winter end? The good news is: I believe we are nearing the end.

The Historical Pattern of Crypto Winters

Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018; it peaked in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.

By this cycle's logic, we still have a difficult period ahead. After all, Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, so wouldn't we have to wait until November 2026? I don't think so.

After further analysis of the current winter, I've become increasingly aware that it actually started in January 2025. We just couldn't see it because inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) masked the truth.

ETF and DAT Flows Masked the 2025 Winter

Take a close look at this chart of the performance of the components of the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index since January 1, 2025.

They clearly fall into three categories:

· First-category assets (BTC, ETH, XRP) performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%

· Second-category assets (SOL, LTC, LINK) experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%

· Third-category assets (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%

The core difference between these three categories essentially boils down to whether institutions have channels to invest in them. First-category assets received massive support from ETF/DAT inflows throughout the year; second-category assets had ETFs approved in 2025; third-category assets never did. (Note: XRP is an exception. It didn't have an ETF at the start of 2025 but performed well. The reason might be that XRP faced a life-or-death lawsuit from the U.S. SEC at the start of 2025, which was dropped in early 2025, leading to a significant rally for the asset.)

The scale of institutional support is staggering. For example, during the period shown in the chart, ETFs and DATs cumulatively bought 744,417 Bitcoin, worth approximately $75 billion. Imagine where Bitcoin would be without this $75 billion of support? I suspect it would be down about 60%.

The retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025. Institutional money just masked this fact for some assets for a while.

It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

What needs to be remembered right now is that there is a lot of tangible, positive development happening in crypto. Regulatory progress is real, institutional adoption is real, stablecoins and asset tokenization are real, and Wall Street's embrace is real.

In a bear market, positive news gets ignored, but it doesn't disappear. It gets stored as potential energy. Once the clouds part and market sentiment returns to normal, this pent-up energy is released in a vengeful manner. What can disperse the clouds? Strong economic growth triggering a broad risk-asset rally, positive signals from the Clarity Act, signs of sovereign nation Bitcoin adoption, or simply the passage of time.

As a veteran who has lived through multiple crypto winters, I can tell you that the feeling right before the winter ends feels very much like this: despair, helplessness, gloom. But the current market pullback has done nothing to change the fundamentals of the crypto market.

I believe we will rebound faster and more violently. After all, the winter started in January 2025. Spring can't be far away.

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İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the Bitwise CIO, when did the crypto winter actually begin, and what masked its early signs?

AThe crypto winter actually began in January 2025, but its early signs were masked by massive inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs), which provided significant institutional buying support for certain assets like Bitcoin.

QWhat are the three categories of crypto asset performance since January 1, 2025, as described in the article, and what was the key differentiating factor?

AThe three categories are: 1) Assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP that performed relatively okay, down 10.3% to 19.9%. 2) Assets like SOL, LTC, and LINK that experienced a standard bear market, down 36.9% to 46.2%. 3) Assets like ADA, AVAX, SUI, and DOT that were decimated, down 61.9% to 74.7%. The key differentiating factor was whether the assets had a channel for institutional investment (via ETFs/DATs).

QWhy does the author believe that positive news in areas like adoption and regulation fails to boost crypto prices during a deep crypto winter?

AThe author states that during the depths of a crypto winter, positive news becomes meaningless for price action. The market ignores good news because sentiment is dominated by fear and exhaustion; the winter doesn't end in a frenzy of excitement but rather when the selling is exhausted.

QBased on historical patterns, how long do crypto winters typically last, and why does the author think the current one might end sooner than a simple pattern extrapolation would suggest?

AHistorically, crypto winters have lasted about 13 months. A simple extrapolation from the October 2025 peak would suggest a bottom around November 2026. However, the author believes it will end sooner because the analysis shows the winter actually began in January 2025, meaning the market has already been in a downturn for a significant period.

QWhat does the author conclude about the state of crypto fundamentals despite the current price downturn?

AThe author concludes that the current price downturn has not changed the strong fundamentals of the crypto market. Progress in regulation, institutional adoption, stablecoins, asset tokenization, and Wall Street's embrace are all real. This positive energy is being stored as potential energy and will be released in a powerful, retaliatory manner once market sentiment returns to normal.

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