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Over the past few days, bitcoin has shown a sharp rise, reaching almost $80 thousand per coin. At the end of the working week, it is trading around $77 thousand. Experts told "RBC-Crypto" what to expect from the leading cryptocurrency over the coming weekend.
Why bitcoin has risen so sharply
The fundamental driver of bitcoin's current momentum has been a radical revision of investor expectations regarding dollar liquidity, said Dmitry Tsarkov, director of the trading operations department at GBIG Holdings. He explained that the recent decision by the U.S. Treasury to at least double the volume of long-term treasury bond buybacks provoked a sharp drop in their yields, forcing 30-year securities to retreat from multi-year highs.
According to him, this macroeconomic shift led to a large-scale cascade of forced closures of leveraged short positions. This provided the fuel for the cryptocurrency's vertical price surge of tens of percent in recent days, the expert clarified.
Lead analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets, Alexander Krayko, agreed, noting that the rise looked logical after a long period of sideways movement, and the breakout to the upside triggered a cascade of liquidations for short-sellers, further accelerating the movement.
Krayko also pointed out that after a long silence, U.S. President Donald Trump once again spoke positively about cryptocurrencies. The analyst noted as an interesting point that the active growth began after Trump's meeting with crypto industry representatives at the White House on Wednesday. Perhaps, ahead of the autumn midterm elections, government representatives are interested in supporting the crypto market, the expert suggested.
What will happen to the cryptocurrency over the weekend
Ahead of the weekend days, the market structure looks locally overheated, though it maintains obvious strategic confidence, Tsarkov said. He added that current on-chain metrics indicate that demand has recovered both in the spot market and in the perpetual derivatives segment, and consistent inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to effectively absorb the available supply.
"However, the specificity of trading on Saturday and Sunday lies in the reduced activity of large funds and a drop in overall order book density. Under conditions of reduced liquidity, price formation completely shifts to the control of the retail sector and market makers, and extreme funding rate values create an ideal environment for local manipulations. The substantial unrealized profit accumulated by speculators increases the likelihood of sharp impulsive movements aimed at taking out the stop-losses of late buyers," the expert warned.
Based on an analysis of open interest and liquidity zones, he considers two key scenarios for the next two days:
- The baseline scenario involves the asset transitioning into a phase of flat consolidation with cautious attempts to test the psychological threshold of $80 thousand, where a dense cluster of sell limit orders is currently formed. If the market manages to hold quotes above the strong support level of $74-75 thousand without aggressive profit-taking, this will form a reliable base for continuing the uptrend with the opening of the American trading session on Monday.
- An alternative scenario is a logical technical correction, triggered by speculators closing positions after a non-stop rally. In this case, we could see a sharp movement of quotes into the $70-71 thousand zone, where the nearest major liquidation zones for longs are located, which would allow overbought indicators to be relieved before a new impulse.
Summarizing the picture ahead of the weekend, Tsarkov expects that the global sentiment has finally shifted towards accumulation, and the actions of the American regulator within the framework of monetary policy are forming a fairly solid floor for any deep drawdowns. Nevertheless, he said, for aggressively increasing positions from current levels directly over the weekend, the risk-to-reward ratio does not look mathematically justified.
"A serious claim for a trend change"
Overall, such strong movement is no longer very characteristic of a bear market and looks like a serious claim for a trend change for at least several months, said Krayko. He noted that bitcoin is now rising almost without stopping, and the movement continues regardless of trading sessions - American, Asian, and others.
Nevertheless, after such a rapid rise, most likely over the weekend there will be a slowdown in movement and a transition into a sideways trend, Krayko confirmed. He clarified that the market needs to consolidate at current levels and form a new base for further growth.
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