The highest activity is observed on Polymarket, where contracts concerning what price Bitcoin will reach by the end of 2026 accounted for nearly $59.7 million in volume. As the Bitcoin price has recently been trading above $75,000, traders assess the probability of reaching the $85,000 mark at 69%, while the chances of reaching $90,000 drop to 49%.
Interest in bets declines rapidly as target levels become higher. According to Polymarket, the probability of reaching the $100,000 mark is 29%, $110,000 is 20%, and $120,000 is 13%. The probability of a return to the $150,000 mark is estimated at just 4%, while "sky-high" target marks of $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million are estimated at 2%, 1%, and 1% respectively.
These percentage values are not Wall Street target figures taken from a spreadsheet. Contracts on the prediction market trade based on specific outcomes, and their prices show what participants are actually willing to risk on these events. Money flow in any direction constantly reassesses the implied probabilities.
Traders are putting real money on a Bitcoin price drop
This activity is hardly a one-sided bet on growth. Polymarket traders estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by year-end at 67%, and the probability of reaching $65,000 at 44%. The probability of a drop to $60,000 is 29%, to $50,000 is 17%, and to $40,000 is 8%.
Thus, instead of a clear optimistic consensus, an exceptionally wide battlefield is forming. Prediction market participants are willing to pay for a serious decline while maintaining hope for another surge into six-digit gains. More importantly, these contracts are settled upon reaching a specific threshold, not based on the level at which Bitcoin ends the year.
A separate Polymarket market dedicated to when Bitcoin will reach the $100,000 mark shows similar caution. Traders estimate the probability of reaching this mark by December 31, 2026 at 34%, by March 31, 2027 at 48%, by June 30 at 60%, and by the end of 2027 at 81%. However, with a trading volume of only $11,874, this market is significantly smaller than the larger pool of target prices.
Kalshi's Millions Build Another Barrier Wall at $100k
Those placing bets on Kalshi are sending a roughly similar warning. Trading volume on Kalshi's Bitcoin market with a $100,000 target mark was about $11.5 million, with the probability of reaching this mark being 7% by October, 22% by December, and 29% by January 2027.
Another Kalshi contract makes the bet even sharper: will Bitcoin crash to $50,000 before reaching $100,000? Traders currently estimate the probability of the "$50k first" scenario at approximately 21%. This bet will be lost if Bitcoin first reaches the $100,000 mark or if neither of these prices is reached before expiration.
The $150,000 target is even more challenging to reach. Kalshi's market at this level has attracted over $36 million in trading volume, yet traders estimate the probability of Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 mark by January 2027 at only 6%.
Bernstein Stands Out from Prediction Market Participants
The Wall Street analytics firm Bernstein is much more optimistic regarding the period after 2026. In a report published on Wednesday, Bernstein's lead analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts that Bitcoin will return to around $125,000 by year-end, reach a new high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and ultimately achieve a cycle peak of about $300,000 per coin by the end of 2029 in the firm's base case scenario.
Bernstein's reasoning relies on institutional ownership, ETF demand, and Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins, while governments grapple with massive sovereign debt and rising interest expenses. Speculators using prediction markets are primarily anticipating a much rockier path. The nearest resistance levels are at $85,000, $90,000, and $100,000, while $70,000 and the formidable support level at $60,000 remain the lower levels where traders are actively opening hedging positions.
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