The Fear and Greed Index in the cryptocurrency world has reached a score of 81, hitting 'extreme greed' for the first time since December 17, 2024—a span of 616 days. Bitcoin has surged over 22% in the last 7 days. This metric is important for cryptocurrency holders today because it follows a period of sharp swings in sentiment that have preceded underlying data, and historically, this occurs just before corrections.
From the February Low of 5 Degrees to Sunday's 81 Degrees
This figure reflects how rapidly sentiment has shifted. A month ago, the same metric was at 36, and a week ago at 41, both values driven by fear. On Sunday, it hit 81 and has held there since, representing a 45-point jump in three decades that CoinMarketCap called the fastest mood shift this year—from one extreme to the other.
Looking further back, the contrast in this trajectory becomes obvious. The index hit a low of 5 on February 5th, the lowest point of 2026 and arguably the capitulation floor for this metric. The move from that level to 81 on Sunday is a full journey from panic selling to greed in six months.
Not everyone scores it identically. Alternative.me, which has tracked cryptocurrencies longer, still rates the sentiment as 'Greed' rather than 'Extreme Greed' (about 6% lower than the 81 mark). But both gauges are moving in the same direction.
The Price Surge Was Triggered by an Unexpected Treasury Statement, Not an ETF Headline
The sentiment shift followed a Bitcoin rally that began with a policy move few in crypto trading circles had heard of. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the Treasury's long-term bond buybacks, increasing each of the large operations to $2–4 billion. The next day, he told CNBC the final amount could be increased further.
The catch, however, is that none of this cash has been moved yet. They are part of a larger program that will only begin on September 9th and run through November 4th. The tone changed, not the structure. Long-term bond yields, which had neared a nearly two-decade high amid weak demand for 30-year bonds, plummeted within minutes as traders caught the signal of likely market support.
Cryptocurrency did not give back this gain as bond yields gradually rose on Thursday. Traders who had shorted Bitcoin, betting on tightening market conditions, were caught off guard on their long positions. The next day, about $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated, driving the market price higher with each forced buy.
Bitcoin's 24% Weekly Gain Leaves the Rest of the Market Behind
Bitcoin jumped about 24% for the week, posting its best weekly surge since 2024, and the entire market failed to keep up, ceding market dominance to Bitcoin. In a CryptoQuant report, it is stated that the rally changed the readings of the company's indicators: the Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 in a week, reaching its highest level since October 2025, and eight out of ten underlying signals now point to a bull trend.
CryptoQuant stated that the market has entered an early stage of a new bull market but refrained from an official announcement. The company's target is a weekly candle close above Bitcoin's 365-day moving average, which is currently around $83,000. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as a threshold, the breach of which would confirm for some that the cycle low is already behind and the path to $100,000 is open.
Why This Hype Worries Skeptics
Such a rapid rally is energizing both bulls and bears. Funding rates, the fee that leveraged traders pay to hold long positions, hit a 20-month high this week, and this has been characteristic of most of Bitcoin's sharper correction periods over the past two years, as it indicates the rally is being fueled by borrowed money.
Large investors have already begun selling their holdings amid the rise. According to CryptoQuant, short-term Bitcoin holders realized profits of about $1.2 billion between August 20th and 22nd, including a record $614 million on August 20th. Exchange inflows spiked to roughly 53,000 BTC, the highest since June, and there are more coins in a suitable place for selling them. Traders' unrealized profit reached 20.5%, and CryptoQuant noted that the last time this metric reached 19%, in early May, Bitcoin fell by about 30%.
