Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark, even dipping under $76,000 at one point, representing a pullback of approximately 40% from its 2025 high. Market concerns are evolving from price adjustments to a loss of confidence.
The latest round of decline occurred during the weekend trading session with typically weaker liquidity. Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000 before weakly fluctuating between $77,000 and $79,000, returning to the price range seen after the previous "Liberation Day" tariff shock.
What makes the market even more uneasy is the lack of a clear trigger for this pullback. There were no cascading liquidations or systemic shocks observed; the selling pressure seems more shaped by a lack of buy-side interest, fading momentum, and weakening conviction, making the price decline more sustained.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin has shown a muted response to common drivers such as geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and rebounds in risk assets. Funds have also not significantly rotated into crypto assets amid the recent sharp fluctuations in gold and silver, reinforcing the narrative of its阶段性 "decoupling" and declining marginal influence.
Longest Streak of Monthly Declines Since 2018
Bitcoin fell below $76,000 over the weekend. The sharp decline that began in October has evolved into sustained selling. This time, it's not driven by panic, but shaped by a absence of buyers, momentum, and belief.
The nearly 11% drop in January marks the fourth consecutive month of decline for Bitcoin, its longest losing streak since 2018.
Unlike the pullback in October, this decline lacks an obvious catalyst, chain of liquidations, or systemic shock. Bitcoin can be observed decoupling from other mainstream financial markets, with demand waning and liquidity thinning.
More notably, there is a relative lack of optimism on social media, with Bitcoin's fall hardly sparking any bottom-fishing enthusiasm.
Market Depth Shrinks Over 30%, Liquidity Dries Up
According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin's market depth has fallen more than 30% from its October peak. The last time liquidity was this low was following the collapse of FTX in 2022.
"From the 2017 peak to the 2018-2019 bear market, we saw spot exchange volumes decline by 60% to 70%," said Kaiko analyst Laurens Fraussen. In comparison, the contraction in trading volume was more moderate, between 30% and 40%, during the 2021-2023 correction.
"In terms of where we are in the current cycle, perhaps about 25% through it," Fraussen said, "From a cyclical perspective, we typically see the most severe drawdowns around the 50% mark."
He estimates it could take another 6 to 9 months for a meaningful recovery to emerge, and volumes will likely remain subdued during the later stages of correction and re-accumulation.
Regulatory Wins Fail to Mask Weak Demand
Despite a series of regulatory victories brought by the Trump administration's shift towards supporting cryptocurrency and a surge in institutional investment, none of this has stopped Bitcoin's decline. Many investors say the optimism was already priced in early, with prices rising prematurely and then stagnating.
Meanwhile, persistent outflows from spot ETFs indicate weakening conviction among mainstream buyers, many of whom are currently underwater after buying near the highs.
Digital asset treasury companies have also slowed their purchasing pace after their own stock price bubbles burst last year, further weakening the market's buying power.
"I don't think we will see Bitcoin make new highs in 2026," said Paul Howard, Director at market maker Wincent.
Intensifying Capital Competition, Bleak Recovery Prospects
After the 2021 peak, it took Bitcoin 28 months to recover. Following the 2017 ICO boom, it took nearly three years. By these standards, the current downturn might still be in its early stages.
Some see a more fundamental challenge: competition for capital. Richard Hodges, founder of the Ferro BTC Volatility Fund, said he has warned large Bitcoin holders to be patient.
He pointed to the revival of AI-related stocks and precious metals, which are attracting macro and momentum traders. "Bitcoin is news from three years ago, not today," Hodges said, "AI stocks, gold, silver are all rallying hard."
Data shows Bitcoin's volatility currently lags behind that of gold and silver, further undermining its appeal as both a risk hedge and a speculative vehicle.
