Within three days, Bitcoin surged strongly towards $77,000, surpassing a host of bull market indicators like the EMA200; Ethereum soared 20% in a single day, closing in on $2,400. With BTC stabilizing and ETH beginning to catch up, expectations are heating up once again for capital to flow from major coins into high-volatility altcoins.
However, after experiencing a bull market dominated by BTC and a bear market clearing, this altcoin rally is unlikely to see "all coins rising together." The projects truly poised to attract overflow funds from major coins will be those with real users, stable protocol revenue, clear token value capture, and a relatively healthy token distribution structure.
High-Performance Public Chain Sector
Leader: SOL
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $51.88B / $56.28B
Last Three Days: +18.48%
On-chain Status: TVL ~$5.31B, Stablecoins ~$15.86B, 24h DEX Volume ~$2.8B
Unlocks: Circulating supply 583M, ~92.2% of total; No significant cliff unlocks, main risk from long-term PoS inflation.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses hold only 6.58%.
Market Outlook: Strictly speaking, SOL itself is a major coin, with the highest certainty in the public chain sector; but it is highly volatile and currently relatively weak compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, perhaps offering a chance to wait for a catch-up rally.
Potential Coin: SUI
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $3.03B / $7.44B
Last Three Days: +14.82%
On-chain Status: TVL ~$427M, Stablecoins ~$466M, 24h DEX Volume ~$39M
Unlocks: Currently only 40.75% released; ~13.5M tokens (~$9.93M) estimated to unlock on Sept 1, 2026, with subsequent releases continuing beyond 2030.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses hold ~13.55%, medium concentration.
Market Outlook: Performed well in the last bull cycle, with high volatility. However, the low circulating ratio is a concern; must pay attention to future unlock events.
Sector Conclusion: For a steady choice in the public chain sector, pick SOL, the current top choice for blockchain entrepreneurship with a strong ecosystem; for high volatility, pick SUI. However, since ETH already dominates this sector, it's suggested to have a medium position for SOL and a small position for SUI.
DeFi Lending Sector
Leader 1: UNI
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $2.384B / $3.406B
Last Three Days: +16.98%
On-chain Status: Combined TVL for Uniswap V2, V3, and V4 ~$3.1B; 30-day fees ~$79.2M, protocol revenue ~$6.12M
Unlocks: Original vesting schedule 100% complete, no clear large unlocks; ~62.4% of supply in circulation, rest mainly in community treasury, burn address, and protocol contracts.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses ~52.03%, primarily: Governance Timelock contract 26.72%, Burn address 10.91%, Major exchange addresses combined ~6.69%, Token Distributor 1.25%.
Market Outlook: One of Standard Chartered's recommended coins. After the implementation of the fee switch and buyback/burn mechanism, UNI is transitioning from a pure governance token to an asset with protocol value capture capability; its 30-day fee scale is significantly higher than AAVE's.
Leader 2: AAVE
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $1.535B / $1.592B
Last Three Days: +13.08%
On-chain Status: Aave V3 TVL ~$16.47B; 30-day fees ~$30.01M, protocol revenue ~$4.08M
Unlocks: ~97% already released.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses ~43.07%, but includes staking pool 15.32%, V3 contract 5.24%, ecosystem reserve 3.61%.
Market Outlook: One of Standard Chartered's recommended coins. Most balanced in terms of token circulation structure and revenue generation, but has already seen significant gains from the bottom.
Potential Coin: MORPHO
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $1.50B / $2.284B
Last Three Days: +8.65%
On-chain Status: Morpho Blue TVL ~$8.93B; 30-day fees ~$16.34M, but protocol layer revenue currently near 0.
Unlocks: Significant discrepancies in supply data, CoinGecko shows ~65.7% circulating, Tokenomist float/released ~34%; No clear next cliff unlock.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses ~64.4%, including wrapped contract 39.13%, seed round addresses 9.01%.
Market Outlook: Protocol growth is rapid, but token value capture is weaker than AAVE's, and supply statistics lack transparency.
Sector Conclusion: The DeFi sector is one of the few crypto sectors with actual revenue, a proven old sector tested by the market. It is recommended to allocate a certain portion of assets to DeFi.
Perp DEX Sector
Leader: HYPE
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $16.41B / $73.75B
Last Three Days: +24.89%
On-chain Status: Hyperliquid L1 TVL ~$1.45B, Stablecoins ~$6.57B, Bridge TVL ~$6.27B; 30-day fees ~$48.39M, revenue ~$34.52M.
Unlocks: Reported circulating supply ~222M, only ~23% of total; Whitepaper model predicts release of ~9.92M tokens on Sept 5-6, but historical team claim amounts are usually lower than the model.
Token Distribution: Future incentives 26.3%, Core contributors 25.4%, Foundation 6.4%, totaling 58.1%.
Market Outlook: Hype is the undisputed leader in the Perp DEX sector. However, after being boosted by Trump's endorsement, its current price rise and unlock structure make blind chasing risky.
Sector Conclusion: Perp DEX is already the hottest sector this cycle, but Hype's revenue and buybacks far outpace competitors. At the same time, Hype's price and market cap are already high, requiring cautious allocation.
RWA and On-Chain Financial Infra Sector
Leader: LINK
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $8.09B / $10.81B
Last Three Days: +15.78%
On-chain Status: Community staking pool ~40.88M LINK; Ondo tokenized stocks and ETFs already use Chainlink data feeds.
Unlocks: CoinGecko circulating rate ~74.8%, Tokenomist tradable float ~58.8%; No fixed large unlock dates.
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses ~30.5%, including ~20.2% non-circulating official wallets, 4.09% community staking pool.
Market Outlook: Can benefit simultaneously from RWA, stablecoins, cross-chain, and institutional finance on-chain, offering stronger certainty than single RWA projects.
Potential Coin: ONDO
Circulating Market Cap/FDV: Approximately $1.767B / $3.629B
Last Three Days: +10.19%
On-chain Status: Ondo Yield Assets TVL ~$2.51B, Global Markets ~$971M.
Unlocks: Currently ~49%-53% released; but ~1.94B tokens expected to unlock on Jan 18, 2027!
Token Distribution: Top 10 addresses ~70.41%, with a single official multi-sig address holding 54.79%.
Market Outlook: Strong business growth potential, but token value capture, high token concentration, and the 2027 mega-unlock are significant risks.
Sector Conclusion: LINK is suitable as the main position for the RWA sector; ONDO is only suitable for small positions driven by events, best after the 2027 unlock is fully priced in by the market.








