Altcoins have trended lower lately as market liquidity gradually dried up. This downturn has affected different segments unevenly, with the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector recording one of its steepest losses so far.
This move could mark the early phase of a broader market decline as investors reassess risk ahead of the close of the 2025 trading year.
Is an AI bubble building?
Concerns are growing across the market that artificial intelligence tokens and stocks may be forming a bubble, driven largely by rising unemployment risks.
Employment data has historically shown a close relationship with U.S equities, particularly macro assets such as the S&P 500 Index. Rising employment has typically supported these assets, while employment declines have often coincided with market weakness.
Insights from Alphractal recently revealed a growing divergence between employment data and equity performance. In fact, while employment participation stood at 59.4% at press time, a sharp drop from its October 1999 peak of 64.6%, the S&P 500 has continued to climb, posting year-to-date gains of 17.81%.
Alphractal attributed this divergence to the sustained outperformance of AI-driven assets, which have continued to push equity markets higher despite deteriorating labour conditions.
“What makes the current environment clearer is that these critical labor metrics continue to deteriorate despite the ongoing divergence: fewer formal jobs alongside an S&P 500 increasingly driven by artificial intelligence, a sector that generates relatively few formal jobs.”
The firm also noted that while markets have entered a bearish phase, press time conditions resemble those seen during previous market bubbles. However, the timeline for a full correction remains uncertain so far.
It concluded by suggesting,
“It is likely that by 2026, a major signal of weakness may emerge, and many analysts may characterize it as a potential AI bubble.”
AI tokens take a hit
The latest market decline has closely tracked losses in AI-related stocks, reflecting a long-standing correlation between equities and the crypto market.
Curvo data confirmed that this relationship extends as far back as 2011 through 2024, using Bitcoin as a benchmark. Historically, rallies in the S&P 500 have coincided with sharper gains in Bitcoin, while downturns have produced similar declines across both markets.
This same dynamic is now playing out across AI stocks and AI tokens. Over the past month alone, Artemis found that AI tokens dropped by 24.9%, while year-to-date losses stood at 74.6%.
These losses have aligned with broader market weakness and could deepen further if AI-related equities continue to decline.
Market momentum currently offers little support for a rebound. Trading volume has fallen by 20% to $3.48 billion too. A simultaneous decline in both price and volume typically signals weakening investor conviction and fading market sentiment.
If projections for sustained weakness in AI stock performances hold, the pressure on AI tokens could intensify further.
Altcoin woes
The pressure on AI tokens is a sign of broader weakness across the altcoin market.
Economic underperformance in the U.S could worsen conditions. Especially as lower capital flows into risk assets are often accompanied by greater outflows from these markets.
At the time of writing, data revealed that altcoins were down 34%, with the total market capitalization falling to $1.16 trillion from a peak of $1.77 trillion.
If downward pressure persists, the altcoin market could slip even further. A further deterioration in sentiment would raise the possibility of a decline towards the $1 trillion-mark – A level last seen on 22 April 2025.
Final Thoughts
- A weakening labour market and rising unemployment, alongside sustained AI adoption, pose risks to any sustained rally.
- AI tokens have been among the worst-performing segments of the crypto market over the past month.
