Author: Claude, Shenchao TechFlow
Shenchao Insights: Bitcoin has fallen from its October high of 126K to the 60K range, a drop exceeding 50%. Doctor Profit, the well-known trader who accurately shorted this decline, has announced fully closing all short positions and entering long at 64,000 USD, claiming structural variables have rewritten the four-year cycle script. On-chain analyst gumsays points out that a weekly bullish divergence has persisted for 147 days, close to the 161 days before the 2022 bottom. However, cycle researcher Jake Pahor, examining common features of every bear market bottom since 2014, finds that this cycle has met zero out of three conditions regarding time span, extreme fear days, and price falling below the realized price. The market is torn between "positioning early" and "waiting for confirmation signals".
Bitcoin has dropped from its historical high of around 126K last October to the 60K range, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 54%. This bear market has lasted nine months, and the debate is shifting from "how much further will it fall" to "has the bottom been reached".
On July 19th, the renowned crypto trader Doctor Profit, who accurately shorted this decline, posted a lengthy thread on platform X, announcing the full closure of all short positions and starting to buy Bitcoin spot at 64,000 USD. This post garnered over 2.13 million views, quickly becoming a focal topic in the crypto community. On the same day, cycle researcher Jake Pahor provided a completely opposite judgment in his Substack column CryptoSuperHub: reviewing 5279 days of data since 2012, he found that every bear market bottom since 2014 met three specific conditions, none of which have been met in this cycle.
Doctor Profit Fully Closes Shorts, Claims Four-Year Cycle Bottom Will Arrive Early
Doctor Profit called this his "Century Report". He disclosed that all short positions established since September 2025 have been closed: Bitcoin shorts in the 115K-125K range, shorts in the 79K-82K range, and over 100 altcoin short positions, all locking in profits.
He entered long buying Bitcoin spot at 64,000 USD, with a strategy of structured accumulation: as long as Bitcoin is in the 54,000 to 64,000 USD range, invest 5% of allocated funds daily to buy spot. Buy at 58,000, continue buying at 56,000, increase buying intensity if it falls below 54,000.
The core logic for turning bullish is not technical but fundamental. Doctor Profit believes the market mainstream is still waiting for a "four-year cycle bottom" in September or October, but this consensus itself is a danger signal. "The market doesn't reward those who memorize calendars. When everyone is waiting for the same date, the bottom tends to arrive early."
He listed several variables changing Bitcoin's market structure: The CLARITY Act may pass the Senate before August 10th; BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and the New York Stock Exchange have joined DTCC's security tokenization pilot, with Microsoft stock, SPY, QQQ, and US Treasuries being tested as tokenized securities, official launch scheduled for October; Citadel just invested 400 million USD in Crypto.com, valuing it at 20 billion USD.
His judgment is: Trillions in institutional capital are waiting on the sidelines to enter, the tokenization revolution and regulatory legislation are advancing simultaneously. Retail investors on X are shouting about waiting for 40K-50K to build positions, but the largest capital is already in motion. "I won't stand behind the herd, begging the market for chips at the same price as everyone else. I'll run ahead."
Doctor Profit simultaneously maintains all S&P 500 short positions unchanged. He believes the crypto bear market started in October 2025, months ahead of the stock market, and has already undergone repricing. If a stock market crash triggers capital flow from overvalued assets to the already undervalued crypto market, it could serve as a catalyst.
gumsays: Weekly Bullish Divergence Has Lasted 147 Days, Nearing Last Cycle Bottom Level
On-chain analyst gumsays posted on the same day, providing supporting technical arguments.
His observation is: Bitcoin's weekly chart shows high similarity to the 2022 cycle bottom. In the 2022 cycle, the weekly bullish divergence lasted 161 days before Bitcoin made a new low and confirmed the cycle bottom; in the 2026 cycle, this divergence has lasted 147 days, only about two weeks short of the 2022 duration.
gumsays' conclusion is moderate but clear: "Trying to wait for the absolute bottom when you already have a good price makes no sense. If you buy between 60K-64K and then add at 45K, your average price will still be excellent in the next bull run." But he added a risk note: "You have no guarantee it will drop to 45K."
Three Bottoming Conditions, None Met This Cycle
Jake Pahor provided the most systematic counter-argument in his July 19th CryptoSuperHub weekly report.
Reviewing 5279 days of CSH Risk Score data since February 2012, he outlined three common features of every bear market bottom since 2014:
First, time span. Bear market cycles since 2014 took about 12 months from peak to trough. This cycle's peak was October 2025, with the 12-month window pointing to Q4 this year. Only 9 months have passed so far.
Second, duration of extreme fear. The CSH Risk Score fell below 20 before every bear market bottom and remained there for a considerable time. The 2014-2015 bear spent 275 days below 20, 2018 spent 52 days, 2022 spent 123 days. This cycle has not had a single day below 20, with the lowest point being 21.5 on July 1st.
Third, price falling below realized price. The realized price is the weighted average price of all Bitcoins at their last on-chain move, representing the market's collective cost basis, currently around 53,000 USD. In previous bear market bottoms, price fell below this level. The June low of 57,000 USD was close but didn't breach it.
Zero out of three conditions met. This is why Jake Pahor refuses to join the "bottom is in" camp.
However, he is not purely bearish.
He acknowledges the bull camp's rationale in his article: This cycle's drawdown is shallower than at similar past stages; ETFs, a non-existent buying force in 2018 and 2022, may provide higher bottom support this cycle; at the June low, over half of Bitcoin was in loss (a condition historically correlating highly with bottoming zones).
Jake Pahor's operation reflects his stance: Weekly DCA continues as usual (in the Score 20-30 range, current location), but larger buy orders are placed to trigger only if the score falls below 20. "If the bottom is in, my DCA at scores in the 20s will perform well. If the bottom isn't in, my larger buy orders below 20 are waiting, funds ready. The plan covers both outcomes, prediction only covers one."
He also provided a set of historical backtest data: Buying Bitcoin in the CSH Score 20-30 range (current location) yielded a median return of +132% after 12 months, with only 6% of trading days recording losses; buying at scores above 60 yielded negative median returns.
Two Key Time Windows and One Data Anchor
From the views of multiple traders and analysts, the core divergence between the two camps boils down to one question: Are the two structural variables—ETF buying and regulatory legislation—sufficient to make this cycle deviate from the historical template?
Doctor Profit believes the answer is yes, betting on an early bottom, going all-in long. Jake Pahor believes the evidence isn't enough to overturn historical patterns, opting for systematic accumulation while reserving larger positions for more extreme signals.
As of July 19th, Bitcoin is quoted around 64,800 USD, with the 200-week moving average near 63,000 USD, price sitting right above this long-term support line. The Fear & Greed Index is at 25 (Extreme Fear).
