Bitcoin surged above $65,000 after military clashes between the US and Iran subsided for the second consecutive day. This also positively impacted altcoins: Ethereum rose more than 4% in the last 24 hours, surpassing $1,960, while major altcoins like Solana and XRP gained 1-2%. At the same time, international oil prices fell by about 5%.
This week will be decisive for $BTC and altcoins, as the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision on Wednesday.
At this stage, whether $BTC's uptrend will continue depends on further developments, with one analyst noting that $BTC has entered an area below its current value but still lacks upward momentum.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated in his report that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score, a benchmark for value assessment, has fallen to a multi-year low but still remains above the negative zone.
At this stage, the analyst stated that Bitcoin has entered a price zone historically considered below its true value, but a full-scale capitulation seen at the lows of previous bear markets has not yet occurred.
According to the analyst, data shows that the MVRV Z-Score of $BTC is currently around 0.42, significantly below its historical average of 1.7, but has not yet entered the negative zone, which indicates mass selling.
Furthermore, the analyst noted that the seven-day trend of realized profit and loss for $BTC has changed from negative to positive. This indicates reduced selling pressure on the blockchain. However, in the analyst's opinion, this alone is insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull cycle.
In conclusion, analyst Axel Adler noted that while the recovery in profit/loss indicates reduced selling pressure, the MVRV Z-Score has not yet dropped below zero to trigger capitulation selling. In the analyst's view, this means Bitcoin is currently closer to a "phase of stabilizing undervalued Bitcoin" than to a confirmed cycle low.
In conclusion, according to the analyst, for a market bottom to form and a sustainable uptrend to begin, merely reduced selling pressure or market value falling below its nominal value is insufficient. Additionally, strong on-chain demand, increased profitability, and aggressive accumulation of assets by long-term investors are necessary.
*This is not investment advice.
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