Artemis: Why We Are Bullish on Circle?

marsbit2026-08-21 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-08-21 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Artemis argues that the market underestimates Circle (CRCL) due to three key drivers: 1) The stablecoin market is expected to grow at a 40% CAGR, reaching over $1 trillion by 2030 and has decoupled from crypto price cycles. 2) Winner-takes-most dynamics, driven by liquidity and network effects, protect incumbents like Circle (USDC) and Tether, making it difficult for new entrants like the Open Standard Alliance's OUSD to gain significant share. 3) The market misprices Circle as a mere "stablecoin issuer" reliant on interest income, rather than a "full-stack money platform" with growing payment network and blockchain revenue streams. The recent 17% drop in CRCL's price following the OUSD announcement represents a market overreaction, in Artemis's view. Historical precedent and the inherent challenges of large consortia suggest OUSD poses a limited threat to Circle's dominant position. Looking ahead, if USDC captures 20% of a $1T stablecoin market with a 2% interest rate, it could generate $4B in interest revenue. Combined with projected growth from the Circle Payments Network and the Arc blockchain, total revenue could reach ~$5B by 2030. As Circle diversifies its revenue away from pure interest dependence, its valuation multiple should expand from the current ~6.7x P/S to a more justified 10x, supporting a potential $50B market capitalization.

Author: Artemis

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: Last week, ARK Invest's Lorenzo Valente discussed in a podcast why the market is undervaluing Circle. This week, Artemis's Thesis pushes this logic to its conclusion: the market thinks Circle has a weak moat, that stablecoins are a commodity, and that the Open Standard alliance composed of over 140 companies will seize most of the market share. However, Artemis believes Circle's first-mover advantage and network effects are severely underestimated. Three core statements: stablecoins will grow at a 40% CAGR to exceed 1 trillion dollars by 2030; winner-takes-all liquidity makes it difficult for alliances to steal market share; the market mistakenly prices Circle as an 'issuer' rather than a 'full-stack money platform'. When the 'shock' from Open Standard pushed CRCL to historic lows, it might be the moment of greatest market mispricing.

Core Drivers

There are three core drivers supporting this view:

Stablecoins will expand at a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), surpassing 1 trillion dollars by 2030.
In a market dominated by liquidity and network effects, the winner takes all. Alliances like OUSD will struggle to capture significant share.
The market anchors Circle's valuation as a 'stablecoin issuer,' not a 'full-stack money platform.'

Why Now? The 'Shock' from Open Standard

Circle's second-worst trading day in history occurred precisely on the day Open Standard announced its formation. The launch of this alliance stablecoin project, backed by over 140 companies including giants like Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, and Google, sent Circle's stock price tumbling 17%. The market's reaction was telling: Stripe is restructuring the 'band' to overthrow the duopoly of Circle and Tether and distribute stablecoin revenue among members proportionally. This news pushed CRCL's stock price near its all-time low.

Stablecoin Growth: Decoupled from the Crypto Cycle

We believe many investors doubt stablecoins can reach 1 trillion dollars by 2030, pointing to stagnation in stablecoin growth. But for the first time ever, stablecoin supply has decoupled from crypto prices. While crypto assets are down 50%–70% from their highs, stablecoin supply remains steady, indicating it has become an independent asset class. If stablecoin supply continues its growth rate of the past 3 years, global supply will surpass 1 trillion dollars by 2030 (projected).

Winner Takes All: Deep Moats Built on Liquidity and Network Effects

Over the past few years, dozens of issuers have tried to dismantle the Circle and Tether duopoly. Despite hundreds of stablecoins being issued today, these two giants still control over 80% of the supply share. The first-mover advantage is extremely difficult to overcome—building cross-chain, cross-application, cross-exchange liquidity from scratch is a monumental task, and Circle has already left challengers far behind.

Can the OUSD Alliance Succeed?

Specifically regarding OUSD, the market clearly sees it as a major threat to Circle's business. However, history shows that alliances rarely succeed. A successful alliance requires:

Aligned Member Incentives — OUSD has this to some extent through interest income sharing;
Clear Governance — Open Standard appears weak here, with several 'announced partners' disclosing they were not consulted and their stance is unclear;
Existential Pressure — I believe most institutions do not yet view stablecoins as a matter of survival, although Stripe might.

Based on current information, Open Standard meets only about one-third of the necessary conditions.

Market Misjudgment: Circle is Not an Issuer, but a Full-Stack Money Platform

The market views Circle merely as the issuer of USDC, because almost all its revenue comes from interest income dictated by the Federal Reserve, leading to a discounted valuation.

In reality, Circle is building a full-stack suite of monetary products for the future of the internet; at its core, it is a technology company.

A comparison of Circle's valuation with its payment peers clearly shows the valuation gap between card networks and other players. If Circle truly builds the next-generation full-stack payment system, its market cap and valuation should align more closely with card networks—charging fees based on transaction volume (bps), not profiting from float spreads.

Imagining a $50 Billion Circle

Currently, Circle's revenue run rate is approximately $2.8 billion, with a market cap of about $18 billion, giving it a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of only 6.7x. This is far below payment networks (14x) and high-growth fintech companies like HOOD (17x).

Its multiple is almost identical to Coinbase's—which the market primarily views as a crypto exchange.

The market prices Circle as a business correlated with the crypto cycle and sensitive to interest rates. But Circle will outperform both of these labels and those fragile revenue sources, earning a higher multiple—10x is conservative and reasonable.

If our judgment is correct, and liquidity and network effects are indeed solid moats, then under a scenario where stablecoin supply reaches 1 trillion dollars by 2030, USDC holds a 20% share, and interest rates are at 2%, CRCL could generate approximately $4 billion in interest income.

Regarding revenue diversification, Circle is already seeing results from key growth products like the Circle Payments Network. Despite ongoing pressure on crypto prices and flat stablecoin supply, transaction volume on the Circle Payments Network is exploding—latest disclosure as of end-July 2026 shows an annualized scale of $23 billion, a 6.8x year-over-year increase (albeit from a small base) and a 70% quarter-over-quarter growth. If growth maintains a 60%–65% CAGR, transaction volume could approach $200 billion by 2030; at a 20 basis point take rate, this would contribute an additional $400 million in revenue.

Looking at the Arc blockchain: if it can achieve the scale of another stablecoin-focused chain like Tron, Arc could generate around $500 million in fee revenue.

The above calculations push CRCL's revenue to roughly $5 billion, with 20% coming from rapidly growing payment/settlement-related business lines. Investors can fully understand and assign a higher multiple to such a mix. Combining revenue growth and multiple expansion, we get $5 billion × 10 = $50 billion. A $50 billion CRCL is not far-fetched.

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the article, what is the primary reason the market undervalues Circle, and how does the author counter this perception?

AThe market undervalues Circle because it views it as a mere stablecoin issuer whose revenue is tied to interest rates, giving it a discounted valuation. The author counters this by arguing that Circle is actually building a full-stack monetary platform for the internet's future, positioning it as a technology company with a more sustainable and diversified revenue model akin to a payment network.

QWhat key event led to a significant drop in Circle's stock price, and what does this market reaction signify according to the analysis?

ACircle's stock price dropped 17% following the announcement of the Open Standard Alliance (OUSD), backed by over 140 companies. This market reaction signifies that investors perceived OUSD as a serious threat capable of disrupting the Circle/Tether duopoly by redistributing stablecoin revenue among its members, pushing CRCL to near its historical lows.

QThe article presents two main structural advantages for incumbent stablecoins like Circle's USDC. What are they?

AThe two main structural advantages are network effects and liquidity. The article argues that these create a winner-takes-most dynamic, making it extremely difficult for new entrants to compete because building cross-chain, cross-application, and cross-exchange liquidity from scratch is a formidable barrier.

QBased on the author's 2030 projections, what are the three main sources of Circle's potential $5 billion revenue?

AThe three main sources are: 1) Approximately $4 billion in interest income from USDC (assuming a 1 trillion stablecoin market, 20% USDC share, and 2% interest rate). 2) Around $4 billion in revenue from the Circle Payments Network (projecting ~$2 trillion in transaction volume with a 20 bps take rate). 3) Approximately $5 billion in fee revenue from the Arc blockchain (if it scales to the size of the Tron network).

QWhat does the author point out about the recent relationship between stablecoin supply and cryptocurrency prices to support the growth thesis?

AThe author points out that stablecoin supply has decoupled from cryptocurrency prices for the first time. While crypto asset prices fell 50-70% from their highs, stablecoin supply remained steady. This indicates stablecoins have become an independent asset class, and if the supply continues its growth rate of the past three years, it is projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2030.

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