Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
After experiencing eight consecutive days of gains on the daily chart, BTC has once again turned downward, falling continuously from $76,000 and is currently trading at $69,200. The mainstream bottom-fishing indicators previously referenced within the industry, including Ahr999 (also known as the "9 God Index"), Weekly RSI, STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio), LTH (Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio), and MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score), have all shown a state of being "sometimes effective, sometimes not": many indicators are at low levels, yet the market continues to fall; some indicators are at high levels, but the market occasionally surges.
In view of this, this article will present 4 representative bottom-fishing indicators within the industry and combine them with data and real-life "implicit indicators" to construct new "bottom-fishing indicators," attempting to explore the downside potential of BTC. The following content is for learning and exchange purposes only, does not constitute investment advice, all investment risks are your own, please DYOR.
4 Classic Indicators for BTC Bottom-Fishing Timing: The Best Time Has Not Yet Come, BTC May Fall Below $60k
From the new high of $126,000 in October last year to the current oscillation around $70,000, BTC's price has been like a roller coaster in just a few months. In such a volatile crypto market environment, many industry indicators have already lost their reference value, including but not limited to the dynamic and flexible miner shutdown price, the industry Fear and Greed Index, Google search heat index, and the Rainbow Chart based on the early penetration stage of BTC.
The reason is none other than the fact that after the influx of BTC spot ETF funds, the increasing number of US DAT treasury companies, and the facilitation by US regulators, the evaluation system for BTC has undergone structural changes. Institutional holdings, derivative arbitrage, internal exchange settlements, US macro monetary policy, and even global geopolitics have become factors with higher weightings affecting BTC's price. In other words, past on-chain indicators and profit/loss can only serve as references and cannot lead to direct conclusions anymore.
Here, we use industry indicators that still have some representativeness to present data and analyze results, which may more intuitively illustrate the failure of the old indicators.
Indicator 1: MVRV Z-Score, Collective Deviation of the Anchored Value System
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As of March 18, the MRVR indicator was temporarily reported at 1.31; previously, in February, crypto researcher anıl pointed out, "When the MVRV Z-Score falls below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its price bottom. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin touched was +0.26, which means the classic 'green zone' has not yet been tested." (Figure 2 above) On March 14, Bitcoin News published an article stating that the MVRV Z Score had dropped to about 0.38, a level that previously indicated undervaluation. Other key support levels include the realized price near $54,000 and the 200-week moving average near $58,000. Bloomberg pointed out that the potential bottom range is between $45,000 and $55,000, but sustained recovery requires new demand support. (Figure 3 above)
Reason for failure: Large-scale holdings by ETF custodians and DAT companies have systematically raised the Realized Value (RV), significantly increasing the denominator (standard deviation) of the Z-Score, making the historically "extreme negative values" extremely difficult to reappear under the current structure.
Indicator 2: Ahr999 Index (9 God Index), The bottom-fishing zone below 0.45 has lasted for nearly 50 days
Since February 1st until now, the Ahr999 indicator has been below 0.45 for nearly 50 consecutive days. Historically, the number of days this indicator has been <0.45 is only 612 days, accounting for about 11% of the total time. On March 19, the Ahr999 accumulation indicator data was 0.37, still indicating a bottom-fishing zone, but it is difficult to provide more long-term guidance information.
Reason for failure: Since the major crash on October 11 last year, the market has been in a state of continuous oversold conditions. Coupled with Trump's volatile policies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, and international geopolitical turmoil, BTC's safe-haven属性 has greatly diminished. Therefore, even after falling below the $76,000 cost line of the largest BTC DAT listed company, Strategy, it awaits more liquidity repair. This indicator has gradually become a comfort index for "long-term value investors".
Indicator 3: SOPR, STH-SOPR consistently below 1, LTH-SOPR consistently between 0.75-1
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is typically used to measure the average profit/loss ratio of chips moved on-chain, with LTH-SOPR focusing on long-term holders who have held for more than 155 days. LTH-SOPR falling below 1 usually represents old chips starting to stop loss and sell, historically corresponding to the bottom of a deep bear market.
In February, Bitfinex published an analysis report pointing out that on-chain indicators showed the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) had fallen to the 0.92–0.94 range, reflecting that most coins were transferred at a loss, and structural pressure still existed.
On March 14, the Glassnode weekly report also pointed out that the 7-day moving average of STH-SOPR was at 0.985, having been continuously below 1 for a period exceeding that since October 2025—this is a typical bear market regime characteristic. This is a significant feature of the bear market cycle. At the same time, the net position change of LTH shows that old chips are still decreasing, but the speed has significantly slowed down, switching from aggressive distribution in Q3/Q4 2025 to a more moderate profit-taking mode.
Manifestation of failure: A decline without the surrender of old chips does not constitute a traditional cycle bottom. STH-SOPR consistently below 1 confirms a bear market, but the inflection point of LTH-SOPR is the true leading indicator of the bottom.
Indicator 4: BTC Mayer Multiple, Below 0.8 for nearly 50 days
As an industry indicator derived simply by comparing BTC's current price to its 200-day moving average, the BTC Mayer Multiple, similar to the Nine God Index, has been below 0.8 for nearly 50 days. In the past, typically < 0.8 indicated a historically undervalued price range. Therefore, although this index is based only on simple price moving averages and does not rely on on-chain transaction data, being relatively less affected by institutionalization, it still struggles to constitute a sustained bottom-fishing indicator.
3 Indicators That May Reveal the Bear Market Bottom-Fishing Range: CVDD Iron Bottom, NUPL Negative Value, Stablecoin Exchange Inflow
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed): An Analyst's Personal Iron Bottom Model
This indicator was developed by crypto analyst Willy Woo to track the cumulative holding weight of BTC at different price ranges, constructing a "historical iron bottom" curve.
It is worth mentioning that this curve approached the BTC market price twice, in December 2018 and November 2022, but has never fallen below this curve to date.
Currently, the CVDD model shows the current BTC iron bottom is approximately $45,000.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): BTC Network Net Profit/Loss Value
This indicator is mainly used to measure the net value of unrealized profit and loss across the entire network. The general judgment criteria are as follows:
High NUPL (>50%): Peak driven by greed; ideal for profit-taking.
Low NUPL (<0%): Fear or capitulation; potential bottom.
It is worth mentioning that the NUPL indicator last fell into negative territory during the period from June 2022 to January 2023.
Currently, the NUPL indicator remains around 0.2.
Stablecoin Exchange Netflow: Stablecoin Net Inflow to Exchanges
This indicator is mainly used to judge whether stablecoins are flowing back to exchanges, which is a precursor signal for market buying pressure. Historically, a sustained回升 in stablecoin inflow often precedes a substantial rebound in BTC price by 2-4 weeks.
The logic behind this indicator's effectiveness is that a price rebound without stablecoin回流 is just a technically driven bounce with very low sustainability.
Currently, USDT and USDC, which account for about 80% of the stablecoin market share, are still experiencing continuous outflows, indicating that the BTC bottom is still quite some distance away.
Conclusion: Buy When No One Cares, Sell When Everyone is Boisterous
At the end of the article, we must emphasize that the various indicators above are for reference only. Specific trading and investment strategies vary depending on each individual's or institution's different risk preferences, capital size, and even holding周期.
However, compared to bottom-fishing indicators, perhaps the escape indicators in the加密 industry are more flexible—just like the gold and silver that surged to everyone's attention some time ago. Once the discussion fever of BTC spreads to those around you, whether it's the grocery-shopping auntie on the subway or the hairdresser Tony, when they all start asking you about BTC, Crypto, cryptocurrency-related investments, perhaps timely selling will be the only best choice.
Hope each of us can wait for that day and start "a great retreat of our own".
