Can Solana reverse its ‘worst quarter’ since 2023 as fees drop 78%?

Solana on-chain activity has dropped to a level never seen since late 2023, further underscoring the structural factor that could derail a strong price recovery.

According to a recent DeFi Report, the Solana network did $51M in total fees in Q2 2026, marking a 43% drop from Q1 and 78% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. Compared to past quarters, this was the lowest fees since Q4 2024.

Since fees track the value paid by users transacting on the chain, it meant the network activity had dropped too. This was not surprising given the broader crypto market downturn since last October.

With the downturn, Solana’s traction as a ‘homebase for speculation’ also contracted over the period. But the report projected that the bear market bottom may have bottomed out in Q2, citing stablecoin growth, tokenization, and perpetual volume surge.

However, it looks like this may have bottomed in Q2. We’re now beginning to see some green shoots within the ‘trenches.’

Despite the said recovery in new narratives, capital inflows into the SOL token were still at a two-year low.

Solana: Assessing SOL’s price recovery

According to Glassnode, SOL’s Realized Cap, which tracks on-chain capital inflows into the SOL market, has dropped from a record $97B last year to $73B in 2026. This was the lowest level the metric has dropped since late 2024.

In other words, SOL saw $24B in capital outflows in the past few months. The bearish trend is yet to reverse despite the recent 28% relief recovery.

During the broader recovery in early June, SOL bounced from $60 to $84, effectively reclaiming its 2026 range-low of $75 (orange channel). Since February, SOL has been range-bound between $98 and $75.

It broke below the range after broader market risk-off triggered by Strategy’s BTC sale in early June. If the recent momentum holds, bulls could defend $75 and eye the mid-range level at $88 or the upside target at $92 (200-day Moving Average, blue line).

If so, that would imply a 13% to 20% upside potential assuming BTC does not post more losses in early Q3.

Separately, Web3 researcher Zach XBT reported that an early Solana whale has been exploited and 180.9K SOL ($14.2M) stolen. Should the hacker cash out the funds, it could trigger a short-term sell-off and test the $75 support.

Final Summary

• Solana fees plunged 78% YoY to $51M, the worst since late 2023
• SOL reclaimed the 2026 price range, but $75 support could be tested if $14M stolen funds hit the market