The chances of the CLARITY Act passing in the US in 2026 have decreased after the Senate postponed the vote to September, according to Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl. Despite this, the crypto industry will continue to develop without the new law thanks to the work of the SEC and other regulators. However, the lack of comprehensive rules may force some investors and developers to shift their activity outside the US.
What Will Change Without the CLARITY Act
The CLARITY bill was intended to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market in the United States. In particular, it provided for new rules for capital raising via blockchain, the development of the tokenized securities market, and oversight of crypto intermediaries.
The document also contained provisions for the protection of consumers, investors, and software developers.
According to Pandl's assessment, the failure of the bill will not have an immediate impact on the operation of major blockchains, the demand for Bitcoin as a store of value, or the development of stablecoin payments. The crypto industry has been operating in the US for nearly 17 years without comprehensive market structure legislation.
At the same time, the lack of clear rules may restrain new investment and business development within the country. Some entrepreneurs may choose jurisdictions with more favorable conditions for token issuance, developer protection, and digital asset operations.
Meanwhile, the bill has taken a formal step forward. According to entrepreneur Mark Chadwick, Senate leadership has filed a cloture petition for H.R. 3633, initiating the process of working with the bill on the floor.
"This is not the final vote on the bill, but it is the first step," Chadwick noted.
After the Senate returns in mid-September, the bill must pass a vote to end debate, which requires at least 60 votes. If successful, debates, a second procedural vote, and a final vote on passing the CLARITY Act will take place.
According to Chadwick's assessment, the bill remains unlikely due to the compressed calendar and the need to gain Democratic support.
Moreover, Digital Assets Executive Director Patrick Witt also supported this, stating that Congress has been working on crypto market structure legislation for years, and the Senate has been actively negotiating the CLARITY Act since last summer.
However, last week Chuck Schumer and "pro-crypto Democrats" did everything possible to block even a procedural vote on the bill before the recess, demanding yet another extension of deadlines.
Witt added:
"If they cannot reach an agreement by September 15th, they never will."
It is worth noting that Grayscale previously urged the Senate to bring the CLARITY Act to a vote before Congress's August recess. The company warned that delaying the process weakens the US's position in the global crypto industry.
SEC and CFTC May Fill the Gaps
Even without the CLARITY Act, the US crypto market has already seen a number of regulatory changes. These include, in particular, rules for the institutional custody of digital assets, expanded access for crypto companies to banking services, policies regarding staking, and the development of crypto exchange-traded products.
Grayscale expects the SEC and other regulators to continue filling regulatory gaps with their own rules, especially in the area of tokenized securities.
Analysts at Bernstein hold a similar position. They believe that if the CLARITY Act fails, the SEC and the CFTC could intensify rule-making for the crypto industry under Project Crypto. In particular, regulatory work could support the development of tokenization, DeFi, and RWA.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has also stated that the crypto market will continue to develop even without the CLARITY Act thanks to regulatory changes and institutional progress.
At the same time, the postponement of the vote already creates additional risks for the bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that consideration of the CLARITY Act will occur after the August recess. To advance the document, at least 60 votes are needed, which requires the support of some Democrats.
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