I. Macro Economy and Traditional Financial Markets
1. Divergence in U.S. Stock Trends: Tech Sector Sees Volatile Swings, Major Indices Close Lower
U.S. stocks weakened across the board, with significant divergence among sectors and individual stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.26% to close at 52,498.64 points, showing relatively better resilience; the S&P 500 dropped 0.79% to 7,515.34 points; the Nasdaq Composite index saw an expanded decline of 1.55%, closing at 25,873.18 points, with growth and tech stocks being the main drag, while small-cap Russell 2000 also faced downward pressure. The semiconductor sector staged an extreme reversal; SK Hynix, which recently completed a massive $26.5 billion ADR listing at an issue price of $149 and surged 12.8% on its debut to close at $168.01, plummeted 9.3% on the second trading day, nearly erasing all its initial gains, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down sharply by 4.78%. Divergence intensified at the individual stock level, with AI hardware stocks broadly weak: NVIDIA fell 3.52% for the day, while AMD, ARM, and Micron all dropped over 4%. Apple bucked the trend, rising 0.71% against the market to hit a new record high; Microsoft and Amazon closed slightly higher; Google, Meta, and Palantir continued their declines. Capital is continuing to reassess valuations across the AI industry chain, beginning to avoid companies with potentially lengthy return periods for computing power investments.
2. Middle East Ceasefire Collapses: Oil Prices Surge 9.3%, Gold Unusually Falls
The ceasefire agreement formally collapsed this week. Following Iranian missile attacks on commercial oil tankers and military bases, the U.S. announced the termination of the ceasefire and launched retaliatory strikes. Brent crude oil surged 9.3% in response, rising from $69.56 to $76.01 per barrel, as market concerns over energy supply disruptions intensified rapidly. While oil gained about 4.56% for the week, it remains down 18.14% on a 30-day basis, with the current move seen as a short-term rebound driven by geopolitical risks.
In stark contrast, spot gold did not trigger the traditional safe-haven rally, instead falling 1.0% to $4,119 per ounce, opening at $4,174.96 and closing at $4,120.35, for a weekly decline of 1.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index opened at 99.54 and closed at 100.97, rising about 1.44% for the week. Not all safe-haven funds flowed into gold; they were dispersed among various defensive currencies. Traders appear to prioritize yield expectations amid hawkish central bank stances over war-related premiums.
3. Hawkish Fed June FOMC Minutes, Probability of Rate Hikes Increases Significantly
The June FOMC meeting minutes released on July 8 showed the Committee voted 11 to 1 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%—3.75%, but internal disagreements were apparent. The minutes noted that both core and overall inflation remain above the 2% target, primarily due to tariff impacts, supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and strong demand for certain goods and services; officials significantly removed explicit forward guidance, indicating a rising inclination toward rate hikes. U.S. Treasuries exhibited a bear-steepening structure: the 10-year yield rose 9 basis points to 4.56%, and the 30-year yield climbed 7 basis points, breaking through the key 5.06% level.
CME FedWatch data shows the market now assigns a 64.2% probability of no change in July, with a 35.8% chance of a 25 basis point hike; the implied probability of at least one rate hike by September has risen to 72.1%. Over the past month, the probability of holding rates steady has dropped from 32.5% to 14.6%, shifting market expectations from "holding" to "hiking 25-50 basis points." The VIX index fell to 15.03 during the same period, placing it only at the 10.7th percentile of its 252-day rolling range, indicating that equity market risk pricing remains notably low and not fully aligned with the movements in oil prices, long-term rates, and geopolitical uncertainty.
II. Cryptocurrency Market
1. Market Snapshot: BTC Sees Minor Recovery, Internal Divergence Among Altcoins Intensifies
BTC rose slightly by 0.2% this week, fluctuating between a low of $61,306 and a high of $64,700, closing around $64,000 over the weekend. ETH performed relatively better, gaining 1.2%, maintaining a range between $1,786 and $1,805; the ETH/BTC ratio increased by 0.93%. Market sentiment improved slightly from last week's 23 (Extreme Fear) to 28 (Fear), though it remains in the fearful zone. The total crypto market capitalization edged up 0.3%; excluding BTC and ETH, the market cap rose 1.2%, but the broader altcoin market, excluding the top 10 tokens, fell 1.6%, with gains concentrated in top-tier assets.
2. ETF Flows: BTC ETFs End Eight-Week Net Outflow Streak, Institutional Funds Show Signs of Stabilization
Spot BTC ETFs this week ended an eight-week streak of net outflows, recording net inflows of $197.4 million; net inflows on July 10 alone were $90.44 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $86.83 million and VanEck's HODL adding $3.61 million. Total assets under management (AUM) for all spot BTC ETFs reached $77.42 billion. Spot ETH ETFs also saw net inflows of $84.40 million, indicating a simultaneous recovery in demand.
The halt in ETF outflows is a key reason BTC managed to stabilize around $61,000 and climb back near $64,000. However, judging by price action, ETF inflows have not yet been sufficient to push BTC decisively above $65,000; institutional buying appears more like stabilization and repair rather than a full-fledged return. The maximum drawdown for fund flows is currently recorded at 18.98%, with the current drawdown at 18.32%. The key near-term resistance for BTC remains $65,000; a sustained break above this level with volume is needed to shift rebound targets higher.
3. On-chain Data: Limited Stablecoin Growth, Robinhood Chain TVL Surpasses $132 Million One Week Post-Launch
The total stablecoin supply temporarily halted its continuous contraction, but growth remains limited, insufficient to indicate a clear liquidity expansion phase for the crypto market. USDT's market share held steady at a high of 58.98%; USDC's market cap reached $73.417 billion, up 0.51% week-over-week. The supply of USDe fell approximately 11.2% over the week, while the tokenized money market product BUIDL grew about 21%, indicating overall capital still favors high-certainty dollar-denominated instruments.
Within two weeks of its launch, Robinhood Chain's Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassed $132 million, with daily active users hitting a record high of 217,000. On-chain liquidity is primarily contributed by Morpho and Uniswap. Notably, the core driver behind the TVL surge was not Meme coin trading but Ethena injecting approximately $50 million in stablecoins into the USDG pool on Morpho, directly causing TVL to jump over 160% in a single day. The Meme coin CASHCAT brought genuine trading volume and user activity to the chain, but the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) business currently holds a volume of only about $12.8 million, indicating the core sector is still in its early, slow-growth stages.
4. Industry Narratives: MicroStrategy's First Large-Scale BTC Sale, Accelerated Institutional-Grade Infrastructure Deployment
MicroStrategy announced this week the sale of 3,588 BTC for $216 million to pay Q2 dividends for STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, and the full June monthly dividend for STRC, marking its first large-scale sale following a previous symbolic sale of 32 BTC. As of July 6, its BTC holdings stood at 84,3775 BTC, with dollar reserves at $2.55 billion. STRC has traded below its $100 face value for the seventh consecutive week, around $87, with weekly volume of $453 million, accounting for 79.8% of the total trading volume of Bitcoin reserve priority securities, while Strive's SATA accounted for 8.9%. Michael Saylor explained that if BTC appreciates at an annualized rate exceeding 3.3%, it can support STRC dividends indefinitely; even with 0% annual BTC growth, there is sufficient funding for dividends for 31 years.
Regarding institutional-grade infrastructure, Swift, in collaboration with 17 global banks, launched a blockchain-based shared ledger, initiating a pilot for tokenized deposits, marking a substantial step in institutional-grade settlement infrastructure development. Korean fintech firm Toss partnered with Optimism to pilot infrastructure for a Korean Won-pegged stablecoin, accelerating the deployment of compliant stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region. Gauntlet completed a $125 million funding round led by SBI Holdings to expand its institutional-grade DeFi treasury business, reflecting continued institutional capital commitment to the on-chain asset management sector.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risks; please fully assess your own risk tolerance and implement strict risk management before trading.
