Has the Cryptocurrency Market Hit Bottom? Here's What Institutions Think

Foresight News2026-06-16 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-06-16 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

"Has the crypto market bottomed out? Major institutions are divided on the outlook, according to a recent analysis by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise. Three prominent research firms published in-depth reports on the topic with differing conclusions. Galaxy Digital argues Bitcoin has not yet found its bottom, pointing to only 4 out of 13 historical bottoming indicators being met. Their analysis suggests a potential bottom range of $30,000 to $54,000. NYDIG adopts a more cautious stance, noting that while metrics are close to historical bear market lows, a classic panic-selling capitulation event is missing. They acknowledge the possibility of a bottom but consider it unlikely, citing structural changes from institutional adoption. In contrast, Standard Chartered Bank asserts the bottom is already in at around $59,000. Their revised bullish view, predicting a year-end target of $100,000, hinges on anticipated reductions in ETF selling pressure linked to events like a potential SpaceX IPO. Despite the surface-level disagreement on the exact price floor, the reports share significant common ground crucial for long-term investors. All three institutions agree that a market bottom will likely form within the current year, that current prices are closer to the bottom than to previous cycle highs, and that Bitcoin is poised for another major bull cycle in the future. The core takeaway is that while the precise bottom level remains debated, the long-term value prop...


Authored by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise

Compiled by: Chopper, Foresight News


Over the past two weeks, three cryptocurrency research firms I have long followed—other than Bitwise—have published in-depth reports addressing the same issue: Has the cryptocurrency market reached its bottom?


  • Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has not bottomed yet; data points to a potential bottoming zone.
  • NYDIG: What factors are currently suppressing Bitcoin's price performance?
  • Standard Chartered: The market bottom has already occurred.


The three reports are detailed, containing a wealth of data and complete logical reasoning, and are worth reading in full. However, if you're looking for a simple, unified answer, you might be disappointed: the judgments given by these three authoritative institutions are completely different.


Has the Market Bottomed?


  • Galaxy Digital: No
  • NYDIG: Possibly, but not very likely
  • Standard Chartered: Yes


Below, we break down the core logic of each institution one by one.


Three Institutions, Three Views


Galaxy Digital


Galaxy Digital reviewed Bitcoin's full 17-year price history and summarized 13 indicators that typically appear simultaneously when the market truly bottoms out. These cover six dimensions: valuation, profit-taking, miner pressure, price trends, bull/bear cycles, and market sentiment. Long-term Bitcoin investors are familiar with these indicators, including the 200-week moving average, Fear & Greed Index, Mayer Multiple, etc.


Galaxy found that currently only 4 indicators fully meet the criteria, 2 are partially met, and the remaining 7 have not triggered a bottom signal. The report concludes that the bottom range for this Bitcoin cycle is between $30,000 and $54,000, with a neutral baseline bottom of $40,000 to $46,000.



NYDIG


NYDIG also adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive analysis framework, comparing the current market with historical cycles, assessing the market status from dimensions such as the duration of maximum drawdown and holder profit/loss (what Bitcoin users call 'MVRV,' or the market value to realized value ratio).


NYDIG believes that current indicators are very close to the extreme ranges of historical major bottoms, but the hallmark widespread panic selling seen in past major bear markets has not yet occurred. However, the report introduces a variable: the entry of institutional funds has fundamentally changed Bitcoin's cycle logic. The magnitude of this correction might be smaller than in historical bear markets. From this perspective, the bottom might also have already appeared.



Standard Chartered


Standard Chartered is not unwaveringly bullish on Bitcoin. Back in February when Bitcoin was at $67,000, the bank lowered its full-year price forecast, warning that the price could fall to $50,000, citing a weaker macroeconomic environment and sustained selling pressure from Bitcoin ETFs.


But last Friday, Standard Chartered updated its view, identifying $59,000 as the bottom of this cycle. The two main logics supporting this view are: a potential diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran, and the highly anticipated upcoming SpaceX IPO. Standard Chartered believes that the substantial selling by ETF holders was to raise funds for participating in the SpaceX listing, and this selling pressure will gradually subside. Standard Chartered's latest forecast is that Bitcoin will challenge $100,000 within the year.


Consensus Far Outweighs Differences in the Three Reports


You might wonder, what useful information can be extracted from three reports with seemingly opposing views? In fact, the underlying consensus in these three reports far outweighs the surface differences. For long-term investors, the conclusions they agree on are far more valuable than their disagreements:


  • All three judge that the market bottom for this cycle will occur within this year.
  • All three believe the current price is closer to the bottom than to the previous high.
  • All three unanimously remain bullish, expecting Bitcoin to usher in a new bull market in the future.


At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is trading around $67,000. One report claims the bottom at $59,000 has already occurred, one sees a potential drop to $50,000, and another a neutral baseline bottom of $43,000. But the core conclusion is highly unified: a bottom will definitely be reached within the year.


This is the key point long-term investors should focus on. Whether the bottom is at $40,000, $50,000, or $60,000, the difference is actually limited. What truly matters is whether Bitcoin can subsequently surge to $100,000, $200,000, or even $1 million. As long as it reaches those levels, entering and holding long-term at the current price offers considerable upside potential.


A rather ironic phenomenon in the current market is that everyone is obsessing over whether the market has bottomed, while overlooking a more important question—has the top already appeared? In my view, as long as the peak has not arrived, Bitcoin retains its long-term allocation value.


The core logic supporting Bitcoin's long-term value has not only persisted but continues to strengthen: government debt continues to accumulate worldwide with no effective resolution in sight; inflation constantly erodes the real purchasing power of wealth; public trust in centralized institutions like governments and banks continues to decline; the global digitalization process keeps accelerating; Bitcoin's trading and investment channels are constantly improving; and the early crypto-native demographic is aging, with their assets and industry influence growing simultaneously.


Of course, potential risks remain in the market, including threats from quantum computing and tightening global regulation. However, on balance, the current situation looks better than in any previous crypto winter.

İlgili Sorular

QWhat are the three major research institutions mentioned in the article and their respective views on whether the crypto market has bottomed?

AThe three institutions are Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered. Their views are: Galaxy Digital believes the market has not bottomed yet. NYDIG considers it possible but unlikely that the bottom has been reached. Standard Chartered asserts that the bottom has already appeared at $59,000.

QAccording to Galaxy Digital, how many out of its 13 identified bottoming indicators are currently signaling a market bottom?

AAccording to Galaxy Digital's analysis, only 4 of the 13 indicators are fully met, 2 are partially met, and 7 have not yet signaled a bottom.

QWhat is the core consensus shared by the three research reports despite their differing views on the exact bottom price?

AThe core consensus is threefold: 1) The market bottom will occur within this year. 2) The current price is closer to the bottom than to the previous all-time high. 3) All three institutions are optimistic that Bitcoin will experience a new bull market in the future.

QWhat two specific reasons did Standard Chartered give for revising its view and declaring that the market bottomed at $59,000?

AStandard Chartered based its revised view on two primary reasons: 1) A potential diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran. 2) The upcoming, highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, which they believe led to ETF selling pressure as investors raised funds to participate, and this pressure is expected to subside.

QWhat does Matt Hougan, the author and Bitwise CIO, suggest is a more important question for long-term investors than whether the market has bottomed?

AMatt Hougan suggests that a more important question for long-term investors is whether the market top has already appeared. He argues that as long as the peak has not been reached, Bitcoin retains its value as a long-term investment.

İlgili Okumalar

Dalio's Latest Warning: Don't Get Carried Away by AI, Real Returns on US Stocks in the Next 5-10 Years Could Be -5% to -10%

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns investors against excessive concentration in AI stocks. He argues the current market, dominated by a few AI giants, mirrors historical patterns where revolutionary new technologies lead to high risk, volatility, and uncertainty. While acknowledging AI's transformative potential, Dalio emphasizes that most investors fail at this stage of the cycle by over-concentrating in a handful of leading companies. He cites inherent risks: companies cannot accurately forecast investment needs or external shocks (e.g., monetary policy, geopolitics, taxes), face potential disruption from future technologies and international competition (notably from China), and experience significant price swings. Dalio's core advice is diversification, calling it his "Holy Grail of Investing." He presents a mathematical case that a well-diversified portfolio of 15-20 uncorrelated, good bets offers a superior risk-adjusted return compared to a concentrated position. Dalio also offers a cautious outlook, suggesting U.S. stocks may deliver real returns of -5% to -10% over the next 5-10 years based on valuation and bubble indicators. He concludes that in the face of high uncertainty, the prudent strategy is not to avoid betting entirely, but to avoid large, concentrated bets where one lacks sufficient informational edge. Instead, investors should build a strategically balanced, diversified portfolio.

marsbit22 dk önce

Dalio's Latest Warning: Don't Get Carried Away by AI, Real Returns on US Stocks in the Next 5-10 Years Could Be -5% to -10%

marsbit22 dk önce

Rain Valuation Approaches $20 Billion: The Battle for U-Cards Extends to Rewards Systems

Rain, a stablecoin payments infrastructure company, is shifting the competitive focus for U Cards from simple issuance to user retention and repeated usage. On June 15, Rain launched "Rain Rewards," an embedded loyalty program capability within its card-issuing infrastructure. This allows partner businesses—like fintech platforms and neobanks—to configure branded loyalty points, earning rules, redemptions, and merchant promotions directly within their card products. The system, built from the 2025 acquisition of Uptop, ensures points are only issued upon final transaction settlement, preventing liabilities from refunds. Trials, such as with Avalanche Card, reportedly boosted spending by 25% among enrolled users. Founded by Farooq Malik and Charles Yoo-Naut, Rain evolved from a tool for managing Web3 company expenses into a full-stack enterprise platform. It is a Principal Member of Visa and Mastercard, enabling partners to issue stablecoin-backed cards and wallets while leveraging traditional payment networks. Notably, the popular U Card Plasma One is issued by Rain under Visa's authority. Rain also integrates with Visa's stablecoin settlement pilot, using USDC for network settlement. Rain's rapid funding reflects growing institutional interest in stablecoin payment infrastructure. It raised a $245 million Series A in March 2025, a $58 million Series B in August 2025, and a $250 million Series C in January of this year, reaching a $19.5 billion valuation. Annualized transaction volume exceeds $3 billion, serving over 200 partners including Western Union and Nuvei. Beyond cards, Rain is expanding into programmable payments. Its June 2026 "Agent Control Layer" allows businesses to set spending rules—like merchant categories, amounts, and frequency—for AI agents before transactions occur. This positions Rain not as a single product but as an operating system for stablecoin payments, handling everything from card issuance and wallet management to rewards, on/off-ramps, and automated compliance. The goal is to enable seamless, often invisible, real-world spending of on-chain assets.

Foresight News25 dk önce

Rain Valuation Approaches $20 Billion: The Battle for U-Cards Extends to Rewards Systems

Foresight News25 dk önce

Historical Bottom Signal Reappears? Messari Valued at $300 Million Sells for $10 Million

Messari, a major crypto data and research platform once valued at $300 million, was sold to rival Blockworks for just over $10 million in June 2026. This sale marks a broader, quiet contraction in the crypto industry. Data platforms like DappRadar and Parsec have shut down, media outlets like CoinDesk have been sold at steep discounts, and companies across the sector are laying off staff or pivoting to AI, which is disrupting traditional research and data business models. Venture capital investment in crypto has plummeted, with funding in Q1 2026 at its lowest since 2020, as capital and talent shift aggressively toward AI. Prominent crypto investors are leaving the space, and many funds are struggling. However, these extreme pessimism signals may historically indicate a market bottom. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its 2026 high, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in "extreme fear" for months, and long-term Bitcoin holders control a near-record 80% of the supply. Similar combinations of deeply negative signals—including low VC activity and distressed asset sales—preceded major bull markets in 2018, 2020, and 2022. While Messari's downfall symbolizes a tough period, it also aligns with patterns seen at cycle lows.

marsbit1 saat önce

Historical Bottom Signal Reappears? Messari Valued at $300 Million Sells for $10 Million

marsbit1 saat önce

Google TPU Shipments Revised Up by 50%

Recent industry research indicates a significant upward revision in the shipments of Google's TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips. Previous expectations for 2027 were set at around 10 million units, but new estimates now point to 15 million units, a 50% increase. This substantial boost directly translates to higher demand across the entire supporting supply chain. Google's TPU clusters utilize a standardized all-optical interconnect architecture. Consequently, key hardware components are deeply integrated and scaled in fixed ratios with the chips. The 15 million TPU target will drive corresponding demand increases for NPO optical engines (roughly a 1:1 match), 1.6T optical modules, OCS optical switches, high-end server power supplies, fiber optics & MPO connectors, and liquid cooling solutions. Among these, liquid cooling is highlighted as the sector experiencing the most significant transformation and offering the most stable potential for excess returns. As next-generation TPU chips reach power levels where traditional air cooling is insufficient, liquid cooling becomes essential. 2026 is forecasted as the first year of substantial adoption for Google's liquid cooling solutions. This shift, coupled with delivery and capacity bottlenecks faced by incumbent overseas manufacturers, is creating a prime window for domestic Chinese suppliers to enter and secure Google's core supply chain. The market size for Google-specific liquid cooling is projected to potentially triple from a baseline of hundreds of billions to around 300 billion units by 2028. The logic for the fiber optic sector is also being rewritten. Once considered a cyclical commodity tied to telecom operator procurement, fiber is now a strategic and scarce resource for AI Data Centers (AIDC). A severe supply-demand imbalance, driven by the long lead time for preform production (18-24 months) and surging demand from cloud giants, is supporting strong performance. Chinese fiber manufacturers are well-positioned to capture a significant share of global AIDC demand, with exports potentially reaching 200-300 million core kilometers in 2026. Overall, the investment focus within the AI computing industry is shifting from pure "chip performance speculation" towards the more certain incremental growth in computing infrastructure and its supporting ecosystem. The upward revision in Google TPU shipments, along with the potential for further doubling by 2028, is seen as solidifying performance visibility for the entire supporting supply chain over the next two years.

marsbit2 saat önce

Google TPU Shipments Revised Up by 50%

marsbit2 saat önce

What Wall Street Really Wants After the Crypto Story Recedes

The tide of speculative crypto narratives has receded, revealing Wall Street's true objective: building a controlled, yield-generating, and compliant financial pipeline on distributed ledgers. They are migrating core functions onto blockchains, not for decentralization, but for efficiency and new revenue streams. Key developments include BlackRock's BUIDL fund, a tokenized treasury fund acting as a foundational reserve asset, and the rise of Securitize, which is going public and partnering with the NYSE to build a 24/7 digital securities trading and settlement system. This signals a major shift of securities clearing to blockchain technology. To make volatile assets like Bitcoin palatable for institutional investors, firms like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are creating "covered call" ETFs (e.g., BITA). These products systematically sell options on Bitcoin holdings, transforming price volatility into stable monthly income, effectively repackaging crypto as a yield-bearing asset. Stablecoins are being positioned not as speculative tools but as efficient payment rails. Companies like Stripe and Mastercard are integrating them for instant, low-cost merchant settlements and cross-border card payments, respectively. Critically, new legislation like the GENIUS Act shapes them as non-interest-bearing, heavily regulated extensions of the US dollar system. In summary, Wall Street is quietly constructing a parallel, blockchain-based financial infrastructure featuring tokenized traditional assets, structured crypto yields, and programmable dollar pipelines—all under its control and fully integrated with existing regulatory and credit frameworks.

marsbit2 saat önce

What Wall Street Really Wants After the Crypto Story Recedes

marsbit2 saat önce

İşlemler

Spot
Futures
活动图片