The United States Senate postponed deliberation on the Clarity Act to September due to the legislative priority of other business before the recess. The House passed the cryptocurrency market structure bill, and it now awaits Senate approval. Time pressure caused the postponement, not an official withdrawal of the bill. After the decision was announced, the prediction markets decreased the probability of passing the bill into law in 2026.
Senate Prioritizes Funding, Sanctions, and Nominations Before Recess
As reported by Politico, Senate leader John Thune explained a tight legislative agenda prior to members departing Washington, D.C., for the summer break. The Senate was concentrating on issues relating to the budget bill, Russia sanctions, confirmation of judges, budget resolution, and other procedural votes prior to debating the cryptocurrency bills. Thune conceded some confusion regarding many issues.
“I would expect that would be in whatever the final tranche of votes [is].”
Thune also described ongoing negotiations with Democratic lawmakers regarding remaining legislative priorities.
“We’ve been having these conversations with Democrats trying to figure out what’s the path – so we’ve tried to set up a series of votes to deal with all the unfinished business with one exception, so anyway we’ll see how it goes.”
Though there was much industry interest in the Clarity Act, it did not appear on the Senate’s immediate legislative agenda. This legislation is intended to address the issue of regulatory oversight responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC. However, lawmakers decided to focus their attention on appropriations, sanctions, nominations, and other important issues before entering their summer break.
Market Expectations Decline in the Wake of Legislative Delay
The prediction market swiftly responded upon confirmation that the Senate would postpone the voting on the Clarity Act until September. Prediction markets lowered the probability of the law being enacted before the end of 2026 to 15.5%, from 18% the previous day and 30% a week earlier. This was due to lower expectations in terms of regulatory developments in the near future, despite the continued interest of Congress in digital currencies. Moving forward, analysts will pay attention to the timing of legislation by the Senate following the recess of Congress.
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