Bitcoin is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.
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The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to an extent never seen before.
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Stock-to-Flow sets grim new record
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With BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.
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This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.
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Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing strain — and criticism.
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Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth through the years.
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S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “up only” — but even accounting for these, current targets are far higher than spot price.
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According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on Nov. 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.
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On Nov. 10, the multiple reached -1.5 — a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime — as the FTX impact hit the market.
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Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Multiple chart. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter
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PlanB: "Feels like the world has ended"
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An alternative iteration of S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.
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“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” its creator, Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post.
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“Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”
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Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter
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Nonetheless, PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation — and now, defense — of S2F, remains cool on its utility.
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“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.
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PlanB has fielded increasingly strong accusations over the model in 2022, these including claims that its basis is fraudulent.
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In response to the increasing deviation between target and spot price, he maintained that even a comparatively wide range for price to act within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.
