【重磅解读】BTC长期投资者终于出逃，多头爆仓暗示市场暴跌

火币资讯2022-10-21 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-10-24 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

多头持续爆仓占比占多数，预示着行情向下变盘。

1、BTC缩量回撤延续

BTC 的周K线图中显示，成交量连续2周出现萎缩迹象，预示着行情处在调整阶段，BTC价格或将在本周出现收盘价新低。从成交量上看，周K线对应的成交量较低，本周成交量萎缩的可能性较大。因此，判断BTC仍然处在弱势运行阶段，一旦破位下跌将看到前期1.4万美元低点。

2、BTC主力获利出逃

BTC主力大量获利出逃，从数值上来看，长期投资者的获利出逃出现在10月18日。图中显示的10月18日的SOPR占比达到了1.436，意味着持币获利43%的长期投资者大量换手BTC，意味着近期BTC价格有向下选择方向的迹象出现。交易方面，BTC虽然短线波动强度维持低水平，但是目前仍然在酝酿收盘价回撤走势。

3、ETH表现为向上突破

日K线方面，ETH价格维持低水平波动，突破仍然没有出现，但是横盘整理却延续下来。成交量方面，ETH从10月1日开始缩量运行以后，目前成交量明显要低于不同周期的等量线。至少目前来看，ETH投资者没能扩大交易量，低波动调整的时间已经超预期延续，横盘整理期间仍然可能可能出现价格回落表现。

4、整体市场多头爆仓数量增长

ETH的投资者爆仓量小幅增长，并且多头近期的爆仓量明显高于空头。从10月18日到10月20日，ETH空头的爆仓数量整体为 1695万美元、1194万美元和1451万美元，而多头爆仓分别达到了4871万美元、4197万美元和4608万美元。相比空头爆仓规模，多头爆仓累计可高达9336万美元。也就是说，多头连续出现明显高于空头的爆仓量以后，目前整体市场出现破位下跌的前夕。

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