【重磅解读】 BTC低迷中酝酿小反弹,XRP主力减仓

火必2022-09-26 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-09-27 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

BTC投资者持币重心不断下降,低迷中酝酿小反弹。

1、BTC成交量出现萎缩迹象

BTC价格波动空间不断收窄的过程中,虽然累计跌幅并未显著扩大,但是行情处在变盘的前夜。随着交易量从2年内的最高位置回撤,短线交易量萎缩,意味着BTC将在收盘价下移的过程中出现变盘走势。从收盘点位来看,BTC近期每个交易日的收盘价都在不断的下降,显然已经有效跌破了6月18日的最低收盘价18970美元。同时,BTC投资者持币重心明显回撤,目前量价并不支持BTC快速上涨。

2、ETH发送地址数反弹

ETH的活跃地址数变化不大,小幅反弹期间,主要是发送地址数增长所致。从数值上看,9月24日发送地址数回升到了32.1万的短线高位,数值虽然上行,但是低于9月17日的42.5万。这表明,投资者发送ETH的数量是逐步减少的。从8月26日的79.9万逐步回落,意味着行情处在调整期间。

3、ETH接收地址数异常低迷

ETH的接收地址数异常低迷,意味着有更少的调整参与ETH的短线转账或是交易。与发送地址数不同的是,ETH的接收地址数减少,9月25日回落到1年内最低13.1万,意味着场外投资者入市交易继续降低,行情调整预期不变。与BTC走势一致的是,ETH近期振幅虽然较小但是收盘价不断回撤,调整预期不变。

4、XRP价格短线调整

4小时K线图中,XRP价格短线回撤期间,价格在布林线下轨明显获得支撑反弹。而交易量方面,短线连续下跌期间成交量维持稳定,抛售压力有效释放,目前为短线回撤的低吸为主。从近期价格走势判断,抛压释放期间0.45和0.4美元的支撑可适当关注。消息面上,XRP

消息显示,瑞波币与SEC的诉讼将可能在12月裁决。同时,近期市场预期普遍对XRP的判决预期乐观,使得XRP价格近期出现了较强势的波动。

9 月 18 日,Ripple 的辩护律师 James K. Filan 在推特上表示,Ripple Labs 首席执行官布拉德·加林豪斯 (Brad Garlinghouse) 已提前提出即决判决动议。

第二天,商品期货交易委员会委员 Caroline D. Pham 与 Brad Garlinghouse 进行了交谈。此前有报道称 Ripple 和 SEC 已要求法院解决他们正在进行的法律纠纷。

加密社区对妥协的可能性持乐观态度,因为 Ripple Labs 声称不存在投资合同。因此,简易判决动议被视为一种谨慎的策略,可能会导致与 SEC 达成和解。

5、XRP主力持币发散

持币方面,近期鲸鱼地址持币数量持续了明确的下降趋势,而同期XRP价格冲高回落,预示着持币发散对价格上涨并不构成支撑。XRP持币TOP10、TOP20和TOP50的数值西红寺,持币地址数从8月28日的73%、75%、78%下降到72%、74%和77%,持币发散趋势明确。因此,交易方面,除了关注整体市场强弱和XRP诉讼结果外,近期低吸买入注意调整风险。

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