[Анализ рынка от Huobi] Курс биткоина (BTC) отскочил от 19 000 долл., но до полноценного разворота еще далеко

HTX News2022-09-08 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-09-08 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

15 августа биткоин достиг максимума на $25 211. Отсюда цена совершила разворот и направилась на юг. Уже 26 августа курс BTC совершил медвежий прорыв из восходящего параллельного канала, в котором он торговался с 18 июня — момента формирования основания.

1. BTC отскочил от 19 000 долл. США

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Биткоин (BTC) заметно укрепился в среду и демонстрирует робкие признаки потенциального бычьего разворота. После медвежьего прорыва рынок продолжил снижение и 7 сентября достиг минимума на 18 510 долл. США. Он был сформирован чуть ниже области поддержки 19 000 долл. США (область минимумов июня). Впрочем, вскоре цена совершила отскок и восстановилась над этой областью. Это сопровождалось соответствующим ростом объемом торгов, что хорошо видно на ТФ 4 часа.

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2. Объем торгов растёт, инвесторы ждут решения ФРС

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7 сентября объем торгов достиг максимума в 5,355 млн BTC, что значительно превысило средний объем торгов за последние два месяца. Поскольку ожидается, что Федеральная резервная система США может сильнее повысить базовую ставку – ещё на 75 базисных пунктов в сентябре –BTC в ближайшем будущем будет испытывать большое давление. Чем более агрессивную позицию занимает ФРС, тем больше инвесторов рассматривают возможность продажи своих монет. Поэтому следующая неделя может стать для BTC очень значимой.

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3. Количество USDT на биржах растёт

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Доля USDT на биржевых кошельках выросла с 0,149 до 0,172, с возможным последующим движением ещё выше. Увеличение количества сделок с usdt также говорит о том, что всё больше инвесторов держат средства наготове.

Так, в недавнем интервью Bloomberg президент Ava Labs Джон Ву заявил, что полагает, что даже несмотря на резкий спад на рынке криптовалют, данный сектор продолжает укрепляться на фундаментальном уровне. Он ожидает, что держатели стейблкоинов будут реинвестировать свои активы, ожидая получить значительную прибыль в будущем.

«Это говорит о том, что многие люди просто отсиживаются в них, и ждут подходящего момента», — заявил Джон Ву.

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4. ETH перекуплен

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После небольшого отскока Ethereum не дотянул всё же до локального максимума 1660 долларов. Что касается объема торгов, то на 4-часовом графике видно, что отскок сопровождался высоким объемом, однако затем он сократился, что означает, что на данном уровне цена встретила существенное сопротивление. В то же время RSI подает сигналы медвежьей дивергенции, показывая, что возможно актив перекуплен.

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5. Давление медведей на эфир растёт

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Количество эфира, поступающего на биржевые кошельки, значительно возросло. 7 сентября на биржи завели 7590 ETH, что эквивалентно примерно 12 млн долларов США. Это было самое высокое значение с 27 июля. Это показывает, что давление со стороны основной силы действительно продолжает расти, а это значит, что скоро цена, вероятно, уйдёт в нисходящий тренд.

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