[Анализ рынка от Huobi] BTC ждут значительные флуктуации в ближайшее время, ETH постепенно растёт

HTX News2022-09-06 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-09-06 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Биткоин (BTC) совершил медвежий прорыв из коррекционного паттерна и после этого не смог развить никакого отскока. Сейчас он торгуется внутри краткосрочного медвежьего паттерна.

1. Что ждёт биткоин?

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На ТФ 1 неделя K-line индикатор показывает, что значительное количество ордеров скопилось в ценовом диапазоне от 20000 до 24000 долларов США, при этом многие инвесторы пока заняли выжидательную позицию и не торопятся действовать дальше. Поэтому в ближайшее время не стоит ожидать, что биткоин покинет эту ценовую область.

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Отсутствие значимого отскока внутри этой области также ставит под сомнение потенциал разворота цены. Недельный RSI начал подавать сигналы бычьей дивергенции, однако они остаются неподтвержденными и могут быть нейтрализованы в случае дальнейшего снижения курса BTC.

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2. Основная часть BTC-трейдеров предпочитает продавать монету, как только видят прибыль

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Судя по торговым тенденциям долгосрочных инвесторов, последние торговые тенденции инвесторов, которые держат валюту в течение длительного времени, очень значительны. Среди показателей SOPR, которые часто достигают высоких уровней, пиковое значение сохраняется более 4 раз. Судя по этому, норма прибыли основной силы в последних сделках может достигать 20%, 62%, 53%, 39% и 118%. Другими словами, долгосрочные инвесторы могут не продавать BTC вплоть до падения цены до 10000 долл. США. Затяжной медвежий тренд безусловно подтачивает уверенность долгосрочных держателей BTC, и многие начинают продавать свои монеты.

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3. Медведи наступают

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Соотношение длинных и коротких позиций последнее время непрерывно колебалось, но вот уже 9 торговых дней подряд медведи побеждают. Если не произойдёт никаких особенных потрясений и биткоин продолжит боковое движение, то, можно будет ожидать всё большее превалирование коротких позиций и постепенное снижение цены. Первая криптовалюта также чувствительна к новостям о решениях Федеральной Резервной Системы США, которая, как ожидается, на следующем собрании ещё больше повысит базовую ставку, что также может негативно отразиться на цене BTC.

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4. ETH выходит из боковика

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Ethereum, судя по всему, скоро выйдет из бокового тренда. Уже в течение трёх дней подряд цена эфира постепенно растёт, таким образом, что достигла верхней границы полосы Боллинджера. Тем не менее, объём торгов невелик, и не исключён сценарий кратковременных ценовых шоков. По всей видимости, инвесторы пока заняли умеренно-осторожную позицию в ожидании грядущей процедуры «Слияния» Ethereum, в ходе которой предусматривается переход сети с алгоритма консенсуса Proof-of-Work (PoW, доказательство выполнения работы) на Proof-of-Stake (PoS, доказательство доли владения).

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5. Открытый интерес по эфиру растёт

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Открытый интерес по эфиру находится на высоком уровне, что отличается от показателей спот-торговли, указывая на то, что большое количество инвесторов не сильно снизили свой энтузиазм в отношении торговли ETH.

Открытый интерес определяется как количество открытых позиций (включая как длинные, так и короткие позиции) в настоящее время в торговых парах деривативов на биржах.

Увеличение открытого интереса (ОИ) свидетельствует о повышении ликвидности, волатильности и внимания к рынку деривативов. Тенденция роста открытого может поддержать текущий ценовой тренд.

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