Robinhood收入结构巨变：预测市场收入已超过股票交易

marsbit2026-08-03 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-08-03 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Robinhood二季度财报显示，其预测市场业务收入同比暴增超十倍，达1.56亿美元，占交易总收入20%，首次超越股票和加密货币，成为仅次于期权的第二大业务。该业务年化收入已超6亿美元。分析师指出，预测市场以“是/否”形式押注真实事件（如体育、选举），其即时简单的特性高度契合Robinhood用户喜好，是加密货币的“完美替代品”。收入结构转变明显：2021年迷因股热潮后，加密货币曾为主导，而2024年底美国大选前后预测市场开始崛起，近期世界杯赛事更推动了季度收入高峰。业务模式上，Robinhood正从与Kalshi合作转向自建。6月，它与Susquehanna合资成立平台Rothera，逐步转移订单以掌控业务，与Kalshi的相互依赖度下降。行业格局中，Kalshi仍以约330亿美元月交易量居主导，但Robinhood增长迅猛。Coinbase等亦已入局。该领域面临监管不确定性，多州诉讼将其指为非法赌博，而美国商品期货交易委员会则主张将其作为金融衍生品监管。

这家以零佣金起家的券商,正在把赌球和押注大选变成一门大生意。

Robinhood 上周发布二季度财报,预测市场收入同比暴增逾十倍至 1.56 亿美元,占交易总收入的 20%,首次超越股票和加密货币,成为仅次于期权的第二大交易业务。这一变化距 Robinhood 正式进入预测市场不足两年。

这一数字意味着什么?按二季度数据折算,Robinhood 预测市场业务的年化收入已超过 6 亿美元。

Mizuho Securities 股票研究分析师 Dan Dolev 对此直言不讳:「Robinhood 上的用户就是喜欢赌,预测市场正中他们下怀。它是加密货币的完美替代品,因为它能更快地给大脑带来奖励感——你不需要等待。」

从炒股到押注世界杯:用户在追逐什么

预测市场的逻辑很简单:用户以「是 / 否」的形式押注真实世界事件的结果,包括世界杯比赛、选举乃至天气。这种即时、简单的玩法,与 Robinhood 的散户用户群高度契合。

时间线上,Robinhood 的交易收入结构一直随市场热点漂移。2021 年迷因股狂潮期间,股票和期权收入激增;随后加密货币接棒,狗狗币等迷因币带动加密交易收入飙升;直到 2024 年底,加密货币仍是 Robinhood 最大的交易收入来源。

转折点出现在 2024 年美国大选前后。预测市场人气骤升,大量资金涌入押注选举结果。Kalshi 当年获批在美国合法运营,为其他平台跟进铺路。

Robinhood 随即于 2024 年底推出首个事件合约,允许用户押注美国总统大选结果,随后陆续上线体育赛事等品类。

二季度的收入高峰,很大程度上得益于世界杯。Compass Point 股票研究分析师 Ed Engel 在研报中指出,这使得 6 月和 7 月的交易量「异常强劲」。不过他也提到,美国橄榄球赛季将于今秋开启,有望带来新一轮提振。

自建交易平台,与 Kalshi「分家」

Robinhood 最初并没有自己的预测市场交易平台,而是将用户订单导流至 Kalshi,双方按每份合约 2 美分的费用五五分成。

这一格局正在改变。今年 6 月,Robinhood 与 Susquehanna International Group 合资成立了预测市场交易平台 Rothera,并开始将部分订单(包括世界杯相关押注)转移至该平台执行。

费用结构也随之调整。Robinhood 目前向用户收取最高 1 美分 / 合约的费用,另加一笔因执行交易平台不同而有所差异的费用——若订单仍发往 Kalshi,Kalshi 另收 1 美分 / 合约。

结果是两家公司的相互依赖度明显下降。据 Artemis 数据,Robinhood 订单占 Kalshi 交易量的比例,已从去年同期的近 50% 降至今年二季度的 17.5%。

Dan Dolev 认为,使用 Rothera 将让 Robinhood「对预测市场业务拥有更多掌控权」。但他同时指出,由于 Robinhood 需要向用户提供激励,两种模式之间的利润率差异不会太大。

行业格局:Kalshi 仍是老大,竞争者涌入

尽管 Robinhood 势头强劲,Kalshi 在预测市场的主导地位目前仍无人撼动。据 Artemis 数据,Kalshi 今年 6 月的月度名义交易量约为 330 亿美元,Polymarket 为 140 亿美元,而 Rothera(同时为 Robinhood 及部分做市商执行交易)为 21 亿美元。

收入层面,Kalshi 今年 6 月的年化收入已突破 20 亿美元,较去年 11 月增长约三倍。相比之下,Polymarket 近期增速明显放缓。

入局者不止 Robinhood 一家。Coinbase 今年也进入预测市场,二季度该业务年化收入超过 1 亿美元,但具体季度数字未予披露,目前仍属较小玩家。

预测市场的繁荣伴随着监管层面的不确定性。多个州已对预测市场平台提起诉讼,指其以未经注册的赌博应用形式运营。

与此同时,联邦监管机构美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)主张对预测市场拥有监管权,将其定性为金融衍生品而非赌博。两种定性之间的法律张力,目前尚未厘清。

İlgili Sorular

Q根据文章，Robinhood第二季度财报中预测市场收入的表现如何？

ARobinhood第二季度财报显示，其预测市场收入同比暴增逾十倍，达到1.56亿美元，占交易总收入的20%，首次超越股票和加密货币业务，成为仅次于期权的第二大交易业务。

Q文章提到，是什么关键事件推动了Robinhood预测市场业务在2024年的转折点？

A2024年美国大选是关键的转折点。预测市场在此时人气骤升，大量资金涌入押注选举结果。同年，竞争对手Kalshi获得在美国合法运营的批准，为Robinhood等平台跟进预测市场业务铺平了道路。

QRobinhood为了在预测市场业务中获得更多控制权，采取了什么重要举措？

A为了获得更多控制权，Robinhood与Susquehanna International Group合资成立了名为Rothera的预测市场交易平台，并开始将部分订单（包括世界杯相关押注）从Kalshi转移至这个自建平台执行。

Q在当前的预测市场竞争格局中，根据文章数据，哪家平台在交易量上仍占据主导地位？

A尽管Robinhood增长迅猛，但Kalshi目前在预测市场交易量上仍占据主导地位。根据Artemis的数据，Kalshi今年6月的月度名义交易量约为330亿美元，远超Polymarket的140亿美元和Rothera的21亿美元。

Q文章指出了预测市场繁荣背后存在什么样的监管不确定性？

A预测市场的监管存在不确定性，主要体现为法律定性上的张力。一方面，美国多个州政府将其视为未经注册的赌博应用而提起诉讼；另一方面，联邦监管机构美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主张将其定性为应受其监管的金融衍生品。这两种不同的定性目前尚未厘清。

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