战争交易平仓｜TradeXYZ周末观察

marsbit2026-06-15 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-06-15 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

周末市场呈现显著的风险偏好回归，各大指数走强，科技与贵金属大幅上涨，而能源板块（尤其是原油）则因“战争结束”的明确信号而受挫。 6月14日，关于美伊谈判的消息反复影响油价。晚间特朗普宣布与伊朗协议完成，授权立即解除海上封锁并开放霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗方面也同步宣布多条战线停火。市场对此消息已提前定价，油价在消息正式公布前已跌至低位，标普500指数随后上涨。贵金属在协议达成时出现跳涨，黄金和白银快速拉升高位后企稳。个股方面，NBIS和RKLB因被纳入纳斯达克指数而表现强劲，NBIS还因其AI云业务高增长获上调目标价。LITE则因摩根大通给出高目标价受到关注。SpaceX概念ETF（SPCX）受马斯克关于公司营收前景的言论提振而快速上涨。总体来看，持续数月的战争对市场的冲击正在消解，但6月19日正式协议签署前，以色列的动向仍是变数。此外，本周美联储新主席的首秀及日本央行加息预期也将是市场关注重点。

周末的盘面几乎是一边倒的风险偏好回归。

各大指数全面走强,科技、贵金属大幅上涨;能源板块受到重挫(CL −1.79%、Brent −1.23%、NATGAS −0.7%),这正是「战争结束」叙事最直接的注脚。

原油 & 美股指数

6 月 14 日 07:31,Fars 通讯社引述接近谈判团队的消息源称:伊朗尚未就拟议中的谅解备忘录(MOU)做出最终决定。油价随即上涨至 82.6。

同日 19:51,YNET 进一步爆料:特朗普可能愿意立即解除对伊朗及霍尔木兹海峡的海上封锁,而非按当前约定逐步进行。

晚间 21:30,决定性的一刻到来。特朗普在 Truth Terminal 发消息表示:「与伊朗的协议已经完成」「授权立即解除美国海上封锁」「授权霍尔木兹海峡免费(toll free)开放」。伊朗副外长同步表态,将于当晚起宣布多条战线(含黎巴嫩)立即、永久停止军事行动。

值得一提的是此时原油价格已经跌至 TradeXYZ 的周末价格边界,市场「提前定价」了这条消息。

标普 500 指数随后触及 7530 美元。

在和平协议正式签署(19 日)之前,市场大概率仍要经历一段等待期。

贵金属

在 21:30 协议达成消息公布的同一时刻,黄金从约 4,221 直接跳升至 4,337 高点、白银从约 67.85 拉升至 70.83 高点,随后高位企稳。

个股 / ETF

NBIS、RKLB 和 LITE 等几只个股在周末表现强劲。

NBIS:6 月 12 日被纳入纳斯达克指数;Compass Point 上调目标价,理由是 AI 云业务增长强劲——Q1 2026 营收 3.99 亿美元,同比增长 683.9%。

RKLB:同样于 6 月 12 日被纳入纳斯达克指数,并受到 SpaceX 估值情绪外溢的提振。

LITE:JPMorgan 在 6 月 11 日的报告中给出 1,130 美元目标价.

SPCX 同样表现强势,马斯克在周末的一则推特回复中表示,「我认为 SpaceX 或许能在 2030 年实现约 1 万亿美元营收」,SPCX 在 TradeXYZ 上几分钟内上涨了 0.56%

综合来看,三个多月的战争给市场带来的冲击开始走向消解,协议要到 6 月 19 日才正式签署,期间以色列的动向是最大变数。

本周三 Warsh 的美联储首秀、日本央行的加息预期等因素也将对市场产生重要影响。

İlgili Sorular

Q根据文章，特朗普在哪个平台上宣布了与伊朗协议完成以及解除海上封锁的消息？

A特朗普在 Truth Terminal 上宣布了与伊朗的协议已经完成，并授权立即解除美国海上封锁以及霍尔木兹海峡免费开放。

Q文章中提到，特朗普宣布消息前，哪种商品的价格已经出现了市场“提前定价”？

A在特朗普宣布消息前，原油价格已经跌至 TradeXYZ 的周末价格边界，市场“提前定价”了和平协议达成的消息。

Q文章指出，导致贵金属（黄金、白银）在特定时刻大幅跳升的直接原因是什么？

A导致贵金属（黄金、白银）在21:30大幅跳升的直接原因是特朗普在Truth Terminal上宣布与伊朗的协议已经完成，以及伊朗副外长同步表态将宣布多条战线立即、永久停止军事行动。

Q除了地缘政治消息，文章还提到了哪些公司或ETF在周末有强劲表现，其背后的具体原因是什么？

A文章提到在周末表现强劲的包括： 1. NBIS：被纳入纳斯达克指数，且其AI云业务增长强劲，Q1 2026营收同比增长683.9%。 2. RKLB：被纳入纳斯达克指数，并受到SpaceX估值情绪外溢的提振。 3. LITE：摩根大通给出了1,130美元的目标价。 4. SPCX：因马斯克表示SpaceX或许能在2030年实现约1万亿美元营收的消息而上涨。

Q文章认为，在6月19日正式签署和平协议之前，市场面临的最大不确定性变数是什么？

A文章认为，在6月19日正式签署和平协议之前，以色列的动向是市场面临的最大不确定性变数。

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