【重磅解读】 BTC融资交易利率提升,ETH估计杠杆率反弹

火必研究院2022-08-09 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-08-10 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

BTC短线反弹,杠杆率回升,继续积累变盘能量。

1、 BTC小涨,并未超预期

日K线图中,BTC价格在一个交易日内触及短线高位2.4万美元,价格短线反弹期间,涨幅方面并未超预期。究其原因,BTC缩量2个交易日期间,交易热度持续降低信号,此时已经到了最佳变盘时点。

考虑到BTC合约方面多空分歧加大,空头合约数量增长。同时,中长期持币的投资者交易盈利扩大,抛售压力显现,调整预期也值得迹象关注。

2、长期投资者链上获利交易

BTC的链上转账盈利空间明显提升,特别是中长期持币的主力转账获利空间增加,意味着高抛交易的增多。8月6日,中长期持币的投资者的SOPR占比反弹至1.20,意味着主力整体获利20%的情况下转账BTC。调整阶段,主力获利转账表明抛压小幅增长,多头兑现收益对价格影响为负面。

3、 投资者BTC交易融资成本提升

近期BTC的整体融资成本持续明显反弹表现,数值上看,BTC融资成本不仅维持在0以上的水平,融资成本达到了1.0077,表明反弹阶段BTC的买入吸引力增长。目前来看,投资者融资买入BTC的力度不强,使得接下来价格表现机会较少。尽管如此,行情目前表现依然稳健,随着买盘维持在当前水平,BTC的反弹机会依然存在。

4、ETH交易量持续低迷

ETH的日K线走势相对稳健,价格缩量反弹至斐波那契61.8%对应的1910美元附近,价格迹象面临抛售压力,涨幅空间受限。接下来,ETH短线或将维持弱势整理,价格在涨幅上并未发出激进的拉盘信号,因此对涨幅表现需要谨慎对待。

5、ETH 估计杠杆率反弹

ETH估计杠杆率小幅反弹,数值上看,杠杆率已经达到了短线高位0.223.表明投资者对行情变盘的下注明显增加。回顾估计杠杆率的表现看,目前ETH继续表现为强波动预期。同时注意到,价格方面ETH面临较大突破压力,1800美元到1900美元区间的短线买卖机会可适当关注。

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