Author: brother bing / Bing Xiong
8:00am: Woke up to a phone notification with news of the United States and Israel jointly declaring war on Iran.
Perhaps I've been in Dubai for too long; I've become somewhat indifferent to the conflicts in this region. Although Dubai is located in a powder keg, the UAE has always been, in my mind, a neutral and safe "Little Switzerland of the Middle East."
After all, money from both legitimate and illegitimate sources flows here. I thought to myself, Iran wouldn't destroy its own little treasury.
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9:30am: A colleague came to discuss some matters, so we went downstairs for coffee and brunch. He was flying back to the UK from Abu Dhabi today; his flight wasn't canceled, and there were no changes to his ticket. Everything seemed completely normal.
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12:00pm: I went home at noon to start working. Then I saw that Iran had decided to attack the surrounding Gulf countries. I still didn't take it seriously. It wasn't until I saw photos of missiles posted by a friend in Abu Dhabi on Instagram that I realized the situation might be more serious than I thought.
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1-3:00pm: Throughout the afternoon, there were constant posts on X from people living near me saying they heard the sound of missile explosions. Since I didn't hear anything myself, I assumed these accounts were spreading false information.
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4:30pm: While I was working intently at my computer, a relatively strong explosion suddenly erupted overhead, causing my half-open balcony door to vibrate. I went out to the balcony and, sure enough, the air was filled with the smell of gunpowder.
Because I had a 5:00 pm Pilates class scheduled, or perhaps my brain hadn't fully processed it yet, I closed the balcony door and went downstairs to class. Out on the street, it was still a scene of peace and tranquility. People were walking their babies as usual, walking their dogs as usual.
The café next to the yoga studio was packed. Influencers were still happily taking selfies.
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6:00pm: After exercising and returning home, the explosive sounds became more frequent. I saw online that a hotel on the Palm Jumeirah had been hit, and smoke was rising over City Walk.
The funny thing was, I was in the middle of discussing company matters with my co-founder on the phone while hearing explosions outside. I found myself wondering: are those missiles or Ramadan fireworks? A few times, I interrupted the call to go to the balcony and check if anything was falling from the sky.
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7:30pm: After finishing the work call, I went downstairs for a walk. The street lights were on, shops were open, and there was no obvious panic among the crowds. Except for the delivery times being a bit longer.
I thought the night would pass quietly, waiting for Khamenei to be captured, the Iranian people to be liberated, and everyone to go home.
But then...
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12:30am: I was eating Japanese ramen delivery at home in the middle of the night when I received alerts on all my phones and computers about missile attacks. At that moment, loud, rumbling explosions erupted outside my window. I quickly grabbed my passport, cards, and phone, rushed out the door, took the elevator down to the parking garage. In the elevator were a Ukrainian man and an Indian couple holding their sleeping child.
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1:30am: I stayed in the garage for over an hour. During this time, I saw on X that Khamenei had died, but also that Dubai Airport had been completely destroyed. While I was trying to figure it out, building staff came over and told us to go back upstairs to our homes.
When I got home, I saw a message from a friend saying Iran was unlikely to bomb the UAE for now and had turned to attack Israel instead.
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The next morning, 8:00am: 24 hours have passed. Apart from the Burj Al Arab hotel being hit last night, there don't seem to be mass casualties. In my area, explosive sounds can be heard intermittently.
Iran says it will continue attacks on the Gulf today to pressure the US to stop its attacks on Iran.
Finally, let's talk about the impact of this attack on Dubai and the UAE.
Many people are comparing this event to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is utterly absurd and shows a lack of thought. Aerial bombardment is one thing; ground warfare is another. The possibility of the UAE's mainland being occupied is extremely low. It's highly unlikely this country will descend into prolonged war.
The real impact is that it violently tears apart the narrative of Dubai as the "gold rush dream" and the "successful case of Middle Eastern reform and opening up." As a global node for tourism and capital flow, Dubai will undoubtedly face short-term shocks. The first to feel the pressure will be the tourism industry. The second will likely be the short-term property speculators.
More long-term, and more dangerous, is a significant reduction in foreign immigration. An economy reliant on foreign population and capital inflow is extremely dependent on a sense of "stability." Many Europeans come to Dubai for job opportunities or tax avoidance; after a few missiles, they might turn to Singapore or other Asian countries.
Of course, the UAE is a highly efficient monarchy. Plus, it's not poor. This black swan event also came at a rather timely moment, serving as a wake-up call for everyone. Next time, please build a bomb shelter in my building.
Enough talk, I'm going downstairs for a coffee.
