Miners May Never See the Next Bull Market Again
The Bitcoin mining industry is facing a structural shift as AI and high-performance computing (HPC) demand grows, but the core challenge lies in its deteriorating economics, not just competition from AI, according to Liang Wang, VP of Canaan. While Bitcoin may still experience future bull markets, mining profitability has significantly declined compared to five years ago due to halving cycles and stagnant Bitcoin prices relative to operational costs.
Miners now operate on thin margins, often continuing operations for revenue stability and their role in grid balancing, as mining rigs provide flexible load management for power systems—unlike continuous-run AI/HPC workloads. Wang emphasizes that AI and mining are complementary rather than zero-sum, with mining’s unique ability to absorb excess energy remaining valuable.
Looking ahead, post-2028, monetary gains may no longer drive the industry; instead, mining will likely persist through grid services, waste heat recovery, and leveraging stranded resources. Geopolitically, North America offers predictability, while regions like China remain complex and high-risk due to regulatory uncertainty. Despite AI’s growth, chip supply for miners is seen as a long-term collaboration issue rather than a direct threat.
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