12月17日：BTC、ETH、SOL、PTB、IR行情分析

金色财经2025-12-17 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-12-17 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

昨晚非农数据多空抵消，市场更关注1月降息预期。比特币弱势调整，未现止跌信号，需待19日日本加息后观察。BTC日线趋势破位，MACD死叉，建议反弹压力位做空。月线支撑参考77250-78800，若跌破7.7万则关注75000-74600区间抄底机会。 ETH处于月线回调阶段，MACD快线近零轴或加速下跌。短期支撑2228，若跌破EMA52（2752）则下看2112。阶段性底部区间关注2222-2112。 SOL当前位于多周期布林下轨114-102区间，月线EMA52支撑109.5。100关口为关键位，若破位可能下探86-85。 PTB风险极高，波动剧烈，易出现暴涨暴跌，不建议参与。 IR代币初始流通20.5%，池子价0.1。利好包括知名投资背景和现有协议收入，但利空为收入持续萎缩及代币经济未公开。建议观望，避免开盘接盘。整体市场谨慎，建议等待暴跌后布局机会。

昨晚非农相关数据一个利好一个利空刚好抵消,华尔街目前真正关注的的是1月份的数据,因为涉及到1月是否降息,昨晚非农数据公布后预测市场关于1月降息有所拉升,但是幅度并不大。

比特币过去4小时级别继续弱势调整,目前并没有有效的止跌或者获得支撑的信号,19号等日本加息之后再看市场反应。

BTC

目前从日线级别形看态,BTC跌破趋线势,macd死,叉有进步一下跌的能可,日线别级还是空头形,反弹到压力位做空。

btc月线boll中轨88800这周跌穿,现在已经变成压力,所以再看45日线boll中轨,对应77250。所以这月抄底78800-77250先进个头仓。

而20日线级别走出圆弧顶,下跌动能呈增强趋势,它的支撑点是boll下轨80250和ema52(75000附近)。所以7.7w跌破后在75000-74600就是本次重点抄底范围。

ETH

当前处于月线调整周期中的10-15日线级别回调阶段。10日线回调未结束,MACD快线即将归零,触零轴时或加速下跌;EMA7/30/52全破,短期支撑仅布林下轨2228。

20日线死叉后现5连阴,价位在中轨略下,距下轨较远;首要支撑EMA52(2752),若跌穿则低点看6月低点2112(等距回调到位,右侧调整结束)。月线中轨已破,但下轨1620太远无效;有效支撑为EMA52(2508)。

本轮阶段性底部区间:2222-2112。其中2752-2680有一定支撑,无大利空极端下探时,可作为短线抄底点。

SOL

目前运行在10、15、20日和月线boll中下轨之间,它们的boll下轨均在114-102,这个范围可以作为抄底的参考之一。同时10、15、20日EMA7-30全部被跌穿,没有支撑。

月线EMA52的价格是109.5。所以100关口不破前的抄底范围就是114-102之间。

考虑到极端情况下扎大针可能会让100虚破,100虚破后的点位是96.25-95.65。如果跌破95就属于实破,那么就要考虑最低到86.25-84.85附近。

PTB

PTB这种币根本不敢碰,单机币一样,做多做空都容易挨打,性价比非常低,可能跑的快能舔一口,但跑的慢肯定要挨打的,总之只要贪了最终都要还回去的,先起飞然后一根针直接跌幅40%以上。

总量 10 亿,初始流通 20.5%,池子价 0.1

利好:1. 融资背景很好,Yzi Lab 投了,Bera 的联创 2. 今年协议收入了八百多万刀,TVL 还有 210M 3. 池子价不贵,0.1,100M 4. 空投在 CEX 里面,有参与的朋友说空投不多

利空:1. 协议收入因为熊链不太行了一直在下降,巅峰不发币现在来发币了,三月份巅峰一个月 281 万,这个月到现在只有一万多 2. Tokenomics 没公布,社区也没啥讨论度

项目方唯一的机会就是大家砸盘的时候收集筹码,然后反撸社区,实现控筹,全力拿到合约位,这样还能通过合约来赚一波,不然基本上没啥机会开盘不想接,等砸完能走稳再说,随着前面几个项目的赚钱效应,市场注意力回到ALPHA上,最近的项目都开始了收割,猥琐一点吧。

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