Key Takeaways
Why is the current SOL’s loss an opportunity?
Per DFDV CIO, Solana will capture more value as digital assets grow into 2030; hence, current levels are a discount.
Why has the SOL price plunged despite ETF inflows?
Overall capital outflows ($3B) have surpassed current demand.
Several digital asset treasuries (DATs) are underwater amid an extended market correction.
In particular, Solana [SOL] treasuries have experienced a massive devaluation, led by Forward Industries (FORD) and DeFi Development Corporations (DFDV).
The SOL price has dropped 45% from $253 to $135, wiping out millions of dollars in value from the DATs’ holdings.
Source: Blockworks
An opportunity or capitulation?
DFDV’s holdings value slipped from $507 million to $310 million amid the correction. However, DFDV’s CIO, Parker White, viewed the market rout and volatility as an opportunity to scale accumulation. He added,
“Solana is going to go up bigly over the next decade, at least to $10k, because the world is going more digital (not less) and Solana is going to capture a huge slice of the global digital value transfer pie.”
He expected more volatility heading into 2028 and noted,
“Between now and Dec 2028, I’m hoping for maximum volatility. It creates lots of opportunities for (a) the company to grow SPS (SOL per share) and (b) long-term believers to accumulate at favorable prices.”
That said, the aggregated net asset value for all SOL treasury firms has dropped from $3.5 billion $2.1 billion – A 40% devaluation across the ecosystem.
And the mNAV, or market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV), is either at parity (1) or below. This could accelerate SOL holdings’ sell-off to buy back its stock, to boost the mNAV.
Parker agreed that they’ll balance and boost mNAV even during tough markets, without disclosing whether this means the automatic selling of part of its SOL holdings (2.1 million SOL).
Treasury inflows fade
Meanwhile, SOL DAT inflows have faded in Q4. In the second week of November, SOL saw zero treasury inflows.
Source: DeFiLlama
In contrast, U.S. spot SOL ETFs saw $46.3 million in weekly inflows, yet the SOL price continued to decline.
The capital outflows from the SOL market were further evidenced by the slump in the realized cap. About $3 billion has left SOL markets since the 10th of October.
Source: Glassnode
A rebound in the Realized Cap would be a telltale sign of renewed capital inflows and a potential price boost for SOL’s recovery.
