期权交易所 Cboe 入局预测市场,主攻金融与经济事件

深潮2025-11-13 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-11-14 tarihinde güncellendi

期权市场交易先锋 Cboe 宣布进军预测市场,不追体育风口,坚定走金融稳健路线,计划推出与金融结果和经济事件挂钩的自有产品。

来源:金十数据

据外媒报道,芝加哥期权交易所全球市场公司(Cboe Global Markets Inc.)计划在数月内推出自有的预测市场业务,但与部分竞争对手不同的是,该公司暂时不会涉足体育相关产品,而是专注于金融和经济事件。

这家总部位于芝加哥的衍生品交易所运营商,成为最新进入预测市场这一新兴且迅速发展的行业的交易所公司之一。该行业提供由联邦监管的事件合约,其形式类似于传统博彩产品。

Cboe 首席执行官克雷格·多诺休(Craig Donohue)在接受采访时表示,与其他与预测市场初创公司或体育博彩企业合作的金融机构不同,Cboe 计划推出与金融结果和经济事件挂钩的自有产品。

目前,美国的预测市场主要通过 Kalshi、Polymarket 等平台,将不同的事件(如政府关门时长、美联储降息概率、经济数据公布、商品价格等)转化为可交易合约,为拥有判断力或研究能力的用户提供交易机会。

「这一领域发展很快,但我认为仍处于早期阶段,」多诺休在采访中表示,「我们目前的重点是自身的有机发展,希望在未来几个月能看到成果。」

就在周三,Cboe 的竞争对手芝加哥商品交易所集团公司(CME Group Inc.)宣布,将与 Flutter Entertainment Plc 旗下的在线体育博彩部门 FanDuel 合作,推出一款以预测市场为核心的消费者应用程序。

自去年赢得联邦法院裁决以来,预测市场交易所 Kalshi 利用事件合约绕开了各州关于在线博彩的监管规定。而其竞争对手 Polymarket 则在周三表示,经过此前的法律纠纷导致业务外迁后,正在重启面向美国客户的服务。

虽然体育博彩是预测市场业务增长最快的板块,但多诺休表示,由于法律的不确定性,Cboe 将避开该领域。「我知道那可能有可观的利润空间,」他说,

「但那也伴随着大量诉讼和监管风险,那是别人的战场。对 Cboe 而言,我们将继续专注于具有金融和经济影响的领域。」

过去几年里,Cboe 调整了扩张策略,转而注重内部增长,而非通过并购实现扩张。

「我认为,我们最好的增长机会依然来自核心的大型业务,」多诺休在另一场采访中表示,「近年来,我们持续看到散户客户的强劲增长。」随着个人投资者投机倾向增强,美国资本市场也变得更加全球化。

多诺休认为,预测市场将吸引一批新的受众,他们未来可能会接触到 Cboe 的其他产品,例如短期期权合约。但他同时指出,体育相关交易的风险过高。

「你最不想做的事,就是从那些无法在市场中长期获利的人身上赚大钱,」他说。

Cboe 的股价今年已上涨约 30%,表现领先于竞争对手 CME 集团和洲际交易所公司,并在本周一创下历史新高。

Cboe 以上世纪 70 年代开创期权市场而闻名,已从传统的交易大厅转型为电子交易平台。公司于 2017 年收购 Bats Global Markets,以扩展至股票、交易型基金和外汇交易领域。多诺休表示,预测市场为公司提供了进一步拓展的机会,

「我们知道,市场上存在着大量投资者希望表达对指数走势、股票市场波动、单只股票期权和证券价格变动的看法。」

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