从繁华到复兴:Arbitrum的三支箭,能否再造L2荣耀?

marsbit2025-11-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-11-13 tarihinde güncellendi

虽然Optimism是第一个TGE的L2,但Arbitrum是L2 浪潮真正的开山怪。23年H1那会儿,韩国巨鲸在GMX上直播炒合约,DeFi Degen们用GLP乐高组合Yield Farming、草根社区抱团炒作远古猫狗Meme币, Arbitrum是23年春季行情最亮眼的板块之一。

但这场如繁花着锦般的生态繁荣,在Arbitrum原生代币ARB史诗级的盛大TGE和空投之后,却黯然落幕。

站在25年11月这个时间点复盘的话,导致这一情况出现的原因主要有三个:

--Arbitrum的史诗级空投产生的巨大正外部性,被友商ZkSync、Starknet、Linea攫取;

--当时天王级L2的核心商业模式,并不是自然有机的,也不是良性自维持的,而是高度依赖空投农民产业化制造的虚假繁荣;

--空投分配给生态开发者给得太多,而这些开发者大部分是伪装得很好的高级空投农民。而拿到空投之后,这些开发者大部分躺平,一部分利用手里大量的ARB在DAO治理中投票给自己分配更多的ARB。

面对以上问题最好的解决方案,只能是时间。

而在经历差不多30个月的沉淀之后,Arbitrum基金会认为时机已经成熟,推出DeFi文艺复兴激励计划(DRIP),重新激活Arbitrum生态活力。

Arbitrum基金会的第一只箭,是利用DRIP第一季的ARB激励补贴生态DeFi借贷协议(Aave, Morpho, Fluid, Euler, Dolomite, Silo等)的Yield收益,以真金白银吸引链上用户使用。

根据Dune看板数据(https://dune.com/entropy_advisors/drip-season-1-lending-protocols),DRIP第一季将DeFi的可借贷资金余额从$1.38B拉升到了$1.67B,贷款余额从$967.52M拉升到了$1.17b。

然而在以上DeFi借贷协议的L2市场份额比例中,Arbitrum的市场份额只从3.09%提升至3.75%。作为对比,同期Base的从市场份额从5.04%提升至6.64%。

这可以看出,就对于链上DeFi借贷Degen们的吸引力而言,真金白银的补贴在有着暴击可能性的空投预期面前,还是有所逊色。

Arbitrum基金会的第二只箭,是孵化新的、与生态耦合度高的PerpDEX Variational Protocol 和 Ethereal Perps。

Arbitrum与当今PerpDEX的Hyperliquid有着英美特殊关系般的好关系,Hyperliquid为Arbitrum桥入了$4.59B USDC,占Arbitrum USDC总供给的69.08%。

但这$4.59B USDC对Arbitrum收入的贡献形式只有转账Gas费,产生其他高价值的收入和正外部性均被Hyperliquid捕获。

在这个得PerpDEX得天下的新版本环境里,Arbitrum生态得有"自己"的PerpDEX。而Variational Protocol的OLP机制,有重现当年GMX的GLP荣光的潜力。

Arbitrum基金会的第三只箭,是与Robinhood深度绑定猛搞美股代币化。

目前Arbitrum RWA资产规模为$1,026.53M,主要构成为美债代币化、欧债代币化以及代币化美股EXOD。RWA资产数量上有615个,主要是Robinhood发行的代币化美股。

由于当前监管限制,代币化美股的结构是由链下SPV托管+CEX/DEX流动性池组成。这导致这个阶段的代币化美股,存在流动性不足、法律地位不清、清结算依赖中心化实体等问题。

但不管是Arbitrum x Robinhood的美股代币化急行军还是Solana的ICM新叙事,它们都指向一个SEC Project Crypto设定的未来愿景:全球金融基础设施的完全区块链化。

总结一下,Arbitrum基金会的三支箭-DRIP计划、孵化Variational、押注美股代币化,既着眼于当下,又指向未来。

Arbitrum基金会,这次是真的在搞事情了。

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