What will tomorrow’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting mean for Bitcoin and crypto?

Key Takeaways

What could the Fed’s decision mean for Bitcoin?

A 25 bps rate cut could inject liquidity and push Bitcoin toward a new ATH.

Are traders confident ahead of the FOMC?

Whales are making big moves – one mystery whale made $48 million in leveraged BTC and ETH bets.

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The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on the 29th of October could be the catalyst that sets the tone for the broader crypto market.

With traders bracing for a possible rate cut, big players are already readying themselves for what could be Bitcoin’s [BTC] next major move.

Fed’s first post-shutdown decision

The Federal Reserve’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting kicks off on the 29th of October, with markets focused on whether policymakers will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut.

This is the first Fed gathering since the U.S. government shutdown, triggered by partisan gridlock over health insurance funding.

Investors are largely pricing in a rate reduction, which would bring the federal funds rate down from 4%-4.25%, the level set after the previous 25 bps cut on the 17th of September.

A move to ease policy could inject fresh liquidity into the crypto market. David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto,

“Over recent months, markets have rotated sharply between gold, equities, and crypto as Trump’s tariff pivots continue to shape investor behavior.”

He added,

“Gold catches bids during geopolitical stress, equities rally on dip-buying and policy optimism, and Bitcoin outperforms when risk appetite returns in strength.”

More upside for Bitcoin

Following rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, analysts view Bitcoin’s recent breakout as a key turning point.

Market expert Michael van de Poppe called the $112,000 mark a “crucial resistance zone.” Once Bitcoin broke through it, he said, the bull market was clearly still intact.

Moreover, he expected a short pullback before the FOMC meeting, after which Bitcoin could aim for a new all-time high in November.

Adding to the optimism, on-chain data showed that whale 0x960B deposited 3.72 million USDC into Hyperliquid [HYPE] in the past nine hours. Afterward, the whale opened 15x leveraged longs.

This involves $27.7 million invested in 240 BTC and $20.3 million in 4,874 Ethereum [ETH], signaling a surge in investor confidence ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision.

Hernandez noted, 

“The combination of expected Fed easing and renewed optimism around U.S.-China trade talks has supported Bitcoin’s latest rebound. If the Fed signals additional cuts and trade progress deepens, risk assets could see a fresh wave of speculative inflows, especially Bitcoin.”

Looking ahead, Hernandez expects Bitcoin to potentially surpass its previous $125,000 high by year-end, driven by growing institutional demand and improving macroeconomic conditions.