Биткоин может упасть до $100 000

cryptonews.ru2025-08-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-10-13 tarihinde güncellendi

Наверное, все мы слышали эту фразу: «Один раз — случайность, два раза — совпадение, три раза — закономерность».

Старая поговорка как нельзя лучше подходит для описания ситуации на рынке биткоина BTC$114 828,82, где обвал в пятницу стал третьим случаем, когда быкам не удалось удержать рост выше критической линии тренда, проведённой по максимумам 2017 и 2021 годов, что повышает вероятность более глубокого падения до $100 000 или ниже.

Эта повторяющаяся неспособность удержаться выше этого уровня свидетельствует о постоянном сопротивлении, что говорит о том, что линия тренда теперь является ключевым полем битвы, определяющим пределы бычьей силы в этом цикле. Месяц назад CoinDesk обратил внимание на сопротивление линии тренда, отметив, что быкам дважды не удалось удержать рост выше этого уровня.

Длинные фитили на июльских, августовских и октябрьских свечах сигнализируют об усталости быков выше линии тренда.

В то же время гистограмма MACD на месячном графике, хотя и остаётся положительной, находится ниже, чем во время декабрьско-январского ралли, когда BTC впервые преодолел отметку в 100 000 долларов, что указывает на ослабление восходящего импульса. MACD, индикатор на основе скользящих средних, широко используется для определения смены тренда и его силы.

Резкий разворот от сопротивления расширяющегося канала в сочетании с отрицательными значениями как на стандартной (12, 26, 9), так и на долгосрочной (50, 100, 9) гистограммах MACD указывает на то, что путь наименьшего сопротивления лежит вниз.

Гистограмма с более длительным периодом, в которой для сглаживания сигнала используются 50- и 100-дневные экспоненциальные скользящие средние, а также 9-дневная экспоненциальная скользящая средняя, работает значительно медленнее и менее чувствительна, чем настройки по умолчанию, но лучше подходит для фильтрации краткосрочных рыночных шумов.

В совокупности месячные и дневные графики указывают на возможность падения до уровня ниже 100 000 долларов, что станет проверкой нижней границы расширяющегося треугольника. На пути вниз 200-дневная простая скользящая средняя на уровне 107 000 долларов также может стать поддержкой.

Быкам нужно будет пробить отметку в 121 800 долларов, чтобы аннулировать серию более низких максимумов и изменить медвежий прогноз. На момент публикации BTC торговался по цене 114 800 долларов, согласно данным CoinDesk.

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