Топтрейдер Polymarket поставил на двойное снижение ставки ФРС

cryptonews.ru2025-03-09 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-09-10 tarihinde güncellendi

Polymarket-трейдер поставил $15 000 на двойное снижение ставки ФРС.
Он ожидает агрессивного шага ФРС — ставка ниже на 50 базисных пунктов.
Слабая статистика по рынку труда США подпитывает соответствующий прогноз.

На децентрализованной платформе ставок Polymarket один из самых активных трейдеров, известный под ником JustWakingUp, поставил $15 000 на то, что Федеральная резервная система (ФРС) США на следующей неделе снизит процентную ставку сразу на 50 базисных пунктов — до уровня 3,75%.

Polymarket's most prolific trader (>$2m profit) bet $15k that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50+ bps this month.

They'll win $226k if they do. Smart bet? pic.twitter.com/DrdXnEuwDl
— Polymarket Whales (@PolyWhaleWatch) September 8, 2025

По данным Polymarket Whales, этот трейдер является крупнейшим на платформе: его общий торговый объем превышает $400 млн, а прибыль составляет более $2 млн.

Ставка на двойное снижение уже показывает прибыль в 3%, а в случае правильного прогноза JustWakingUp может заработать около $226 000.

Несмотря на это, рынок в целом ожидает более умеренного решения. Согласно инструменту CME FedWatch Tool, вероятность снижения ставки на 25 базисных пунктов оценивается в 91,8%.

В то же время шансы на агрессивное снижение в 50 базисных пунктов выросли почти до 10% после слабого августовского отчета о занятости в США.

Ситуацию подпитали и новые данные от Бюро трудовой статистики США, которое сообщило, что экономика создала на 911 000 меньше рабочих мест в период с марта 2024 по март 2025 года, чем считалось ранее. Это стало самым большим годовым снижением в пересмотре данных за всю историю наблюдений.

В Polymarket отметили, что на фоне таких сигналов ожидания более агрессивной монетарной политики растут. BlackRock и Standard Chartered также выступили за двойное снижение.

Согласно Polymarket, на момент написания материала показатели снижения в 50 базисных пунктов и 25 базисных пунктов составляют 14,2% и 82% соответственно.

Прогноз на платформе Polymarket относительно решения ФРС по процентной ставке в сентябре. Источник: Polymarket.

Теперь рынки внимательно следят за публикацией индекса цен производителей (PPI) в среду и индекса потребительских цен (CPI) в четверг. Если показатели окажутся слабее ожидаемых, это может усилить вероятность радикального решения ФРС и стать катализатором роста на фондовых и крипторынках.

Напомним, что протокол июльского заседания ФРС вызвал положительную реакцию крипторынка, поскольку два члена Комитета по открытым рынкам поддержали снижение процентной ставки.

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