牛市中的加密风投：募资难，难于上青天

深潮2025-08-24 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-08-25 tarihinde güncellendi

尽管当前处于加密货币牛市，但加密风投基金的募资环境却异常艰难。

撰文：Yogita Khatri

编译：Tim，PANews

上一期内容中，我谈到「数字资产财库（DAT）之夏」吸引走了传统初创企业融资轮的注意力和资金。当时，一些风投机构还提出了另一个问题：有限合伙人（LP）对投资加密基金变得非常谨慎。因此在本期内容中，我将深入探讨为何募集加密风投基金变得更加困难，即便是在牛市也不例外，以及这对未来发展道路意味着什么。

数位风险投资人士告诉我，Terra（LUNA）和 FTX 在 2022 年崩盘后，融资明显变得更加困难，这不仅侵蚀了 LP 的信任，更让整个行业声誉受损。Lattice Fund 联合创始人 Regan Bozman 表示：「虽然对加密市场的看法已大幅改善，但这并未抵消人们对风险投资业绩的普遍担忧。如今加密风险投资面临的新挑战是，需要与 ETF 和 DAT 争夺资金。」

Neoclassic Capital 联合创始人 Michael Bucella 表示，如今只有具备明显优势或拥有亮眼历史业绩的基金才能持续获得 LP 的资金注入。这种市场变化推动了被 Dragonfly 普通合伙人 Rob Hadick 称为「优质标的转移」的现象。他指出，2024 年仅 20 家机构就吸引了 LP 总资金的 60%，而另外 488 家机构则瓜分了剩余的 40%。尽管今年通过并购和 IPO 改善了流动性，但融资门槛仍远高于 2022 年市场崩盘前的水平。

更广泛的数据也证实了这一点。我同事 Ivan Wu 提供的 The Block Pro 数据显示，自 2021-2022 年的繁荣期后，加密风险基金融资规模急剧萎缩。2022 年，相关机构通过 329 只基金筹集了超过 860 亿美元资金，但这一数字在 2023 年骤降至 112 亿美元，2024 年进一步降至 79.5 亿美元。截至 2025 年，仅有 28 只基金筹集到 37 亿美元，这突显了当前融资环境的艰难程度。无论融资规模还是基金数量均呈陡峭下降趋势，反映出 LP 的谨慎态度与资本选择增多。

多家风投公司向我透露，家族办公室、富豪和加密原生基金仍在积极支持加密风投。但自 2022 年以来，养老金、捐赠基金、母基金和企业风投部门大多选择退出，导致 LP 群体规模更小、更挑剔。

为什么现在融资比 2021 年或 2022 年初更难

上一轮牛市周期情况特殊，2021 年几乎人人都能募集加密风投基金，即便缺乏经验也能成功，但其中许多基金至今尚未向投资者返还资本。LP 如今在投入新资金前，都要求看到实实在在的实收资本分配数据。White Star Capital 的普通合伙人 Sep Alavi 表示：「LP 对未实现收益越来越持怀疑态度，他们优先选择那些具备实际收益历史记录的基金。」

自 2022 年 3 月以来的加息周期也促使资本配置者转向更安全、流动性更强的资产。Neoclassic Capital 另一位联合创始人 Steve Lee 指出，本轮周期收益主要通过 ETF 和 DATs 集中在比特币、以太坊及少数蓝筹股，几乎未能惠及通常具有风险投资价值的小型项目。Lee 表示：「LP 看到大盘股的短期收益，而风险投资价值的实现需要更长时间。」

一位不愿透露姓名的早期风投创始人补充说，由于自 2021-22 周期以来鲜有代币表现出色，「山寨币买盘」的缺失抑制了 LP 的投资意愿，许多加密风投机构都会投资代币。人工智能也是主要影响因素：Lattice Fund 的 Bozman 表示：「人工智能堪称包罗万象的热门事物，吸引了大量关注科技领域的 LP 的兴趣。」

总体而言，虽然如今的融资难度可能不及 Luna 和 FTX 崩盘后的几年，但比起 2021 年至 2022 年初热钱涌动的宽松时期仍然严峻得多。

加密风投的未来会是什么样子

若融资持续困难，多数风投机构预计行业将出现整合潮，规模较小、实力较弱或缺乏特色的基金将悄然退出市场。Alavi 预计小型或业绩不佳的基金将难以募集后续基金，Hadick 则指出随着资本向头部集中，市场已开始萎缩。

那位早期加密风投创始人认为，中型基金将趋于空心化：规模在 5000 万美元以下、具备尖端优势的小型基金将存活下来，Paradigm 和 a16z 等巨型基金也将继续发展，但表现不佳的中型基金会逐渐消失。他补充道，加密风险市场可能越来越趋近传统市场结构，由规模较小但更优质的风险投资机构支撑庞大的流动性基础。Bucella 表示：「资本市场具有绝妙的自我修正能力，我们正在走出风险投资配置过高而流动性策略配置不足的阶段。」

其他人则认为模式本身也在演变。Nomad Capital 的 Erick Zhang 预测，纯粹聚焦加密货币的企业将会减少，Web2 风投将涉足加密领域，而加密基金也将拓展至 Web2 业务。

流动性提供者大规模回归的时间线尚不确定。Neoclassic 的 Lee 表示，一旦资本从比特币和以太坊转向中低市值代币生态系统，投资者就会回归，他预计这一转变将通过稳定币驱动的链上资本流动加速实现。

Alavi 认为，随着利率下降和并购交易助推资金分配，机构投资者或将在 2026 年年中回归。Hadick 则认为除养老金外，大多数机构投资者已然回归，并预计随着监管逐渐明朗和市场趋于成熟，养老金将在未来几年内重返市场。那位早期风险投资创始人则表示，除非出现下一个类似稳定币或突破性应用案例的「超级热门叙事」，否则 LP 不会大规模回归。

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