Bitcoin Gives ‘Encouraging Signals’ As Cyclic Indicators Show BTC Is Close To A Bottom

zycrypto2022-06-28 tarihinde yayınlandı2022-06-28 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

Seasoned Trader Who Correctly Predicted Bitcoin’s Latest Crash Now Sees A Local Bottom

Seasoned Trader Who Correctly Predicted Bitcoin’s Latest Crash Now Sees A Local Bottom

Bitcoin appears to be close to a bottom as revealed by the majority of cyclic indicators including but not limited to Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio, SOPR Ratio, and Realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands. Data from these indicators reveal a historical pattern that has several times preceded a surging uptrend.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has a value of 0.9, indicating a price bottom

According to charts from crypto analytics platform, CryptoQuant, the majority of these indicators suggest that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. The considerable amount of unrealized loss in the bitcoin market also points to the reality that the asset is close to the bottom.

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple – the proportion of the daily issuance of Bitcoin to the annual average – is somewhere around the value of 0.4, indicating a likely bottom for the asset. The Bitcoin Puell Multiple value of 0.4 is the lowest for the coin for over 2 years.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio which indicates the ratio of the asset’s actual market capitalization to the realized capitalization of the asset has the last value of 0.9, another indication of a bottom. Historically, an MVRV Ratio above 3.7 indicates a price top whereas values below 1 show a price bottom.

The last time the MVRV Ratio of Bitcoin reached a value close to this was in March of 2020 when Bitcoin sunk to a price of $4,800 against the dollar from the $8,500 price it started the month with. The asset later went on to end the year with a $28k value after touching that bottom.

BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

Bitcoin’s MPI appears to be on the high side

Additionally, the SOPR Ratio of Bitcoin in terms of Long Term Holders’ SOPR against Short Term Holders’ SOPR currently has a value of 0.6, further attesting to a price bottom. The Net Unrealised Profit and Loss (NUPL) with the last value of -0.05 confirms this attestation.

Conversely, Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index (MPI) appears to be on the high side, suggesting that bitcoin miners are dispensing over what their daily distribution ought to be. This is because miners are seeing less profit for their activities considering the sinking of bitcoin as opposed to the ever-rising utility fees for mining.

Most of these indicators signify a price bottom without any reasonable doubt, and as seen from historical data, the likelihood of an uptrend is close. Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades at a price of $20,918 against the dollar, having gained by 3.79% the past week.

İlgili Okumalar

If the AI Bubble Is Already Bursting, Who Will Truly Remain?

**Summary: If the AI Bubble is Bursting, What Will Remain?** The debate around an AI bubble is intensifying, with figures like Ray Dalio warning of high valuations while Jensen Huang sees immense opportunity. This echoes the dot-com bubble, which saw massive wealth destruction but ultimately left behind critical infrastructure like undersea cables and broadband, enabling future giants like Amazon and Netflix. Similarly, today's AI boom involves trillions invested in data centers, power, cooling, and GPUs, while application-layer revenue remains comparatively modest. This investment-disparity signals a bubble. However, the core technological progress is real and accelerating. AI inference costs have plummeted by over 99.7% since 2023, making intelligence increasingly cheap and accessible. This cost collapse is unlocking vast new demand. Instead of reducing spending, enterprises are tripling their AI cloud expenditure. Cheap "tokens" enable AI to move beyond simple chatbots into complex workflows—automating code writing, legal document review, financial analysis, and scientific research. This follows "Jevons's paradox": improved efficiency leads to greater total consumption. The market is now undergoing a necessary purification, weeding out "API-wrapper" startups with no real moat. The deeper evolution involves a shift from capital expenditure (CapEx) on infrastructure to operational expenditure (OpEx) on value-creation in applications. While hardware vendors currently profit most, long-term value will migrate to AI-native firms solving vertical industry problems. Ultimately, a market correction will cleanse speculative excess but will not reverse the AI+ trend. The massive physical and algorithmic infrastructure being built will endure, becoming a cheap, utility-like foundation. Just as the internet became indispensable to all industries post-2000, AI is poised to empower and redefine every sector, moving society irreversibly toward an intelligence-augmented era. The bubble may burst, but the underlying productive momentum is solid.

链捕手8 dk önce

If the AI Bubble Is Already Bursting, Who Will Truly Remain?

链捕手8 dk önce

Microsoft CEO: In the AI Era, How Do You Define a Company's Moat?

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella argues that in the AI era, a company's true competitive edge, or "moat," is not determined by choosing the single most powerful model, but by its ability to build a continuous "learning loop." This system integrates and evolves by connecting human workflows, domain expertise, organizational judgment, and employee experience. He posits that future companies will accumulate two types of capital: Human Capital (employee knowledge, judgment, creativity) and "Token Capital" (a firm's own built and owned AI capabilities). Importantly, AI amplifies rather than devalues human capital. Human direction is essential to guide progress, as computational power alone is aimless. The core opportunity lies in creating a closed-loop system where human and token capital reinforce each other in a compound, self-improving cycle. A company must be able to preserve its unique institutional knowledge—its "company veteran" expertise—even if it switches underlying general-purpose AI models. This requires private evaluation benchmarks, reinforcement learning environments based on internal data, and queryable knowledge bases. Nadella warns against a future where economic value is concentrated by a few dominant models that commoditize entire industries' knowledge. Instead, the priority should be building a broad "frontier ecosystem" where every company, industry, and nation can own its learning loop. This allows organizations to retain control of their intellectual property, amplify employee capabilities, and ensure the economic value created by AI is captured within their own businesses and communities. True corporate sovereignty in the AI age comes from turning organizational knowledge into a compounding system that creates enduring, defensible value.

marsbit43 dk önce

Microsoft CEO: In the AI Era, How Do You Define a Company's Moat?

marsbit43 dk önce

ETFs Are Just the Ticket: The True Institutionalization of Bitcoin Is Happening Where You Can't See It

Beyond the Bitcoin ETF spotlight, a deeper institutionalization is underway, leveraging Bitcoin as a foundational financial primitive. Institutions are using Bitcoin for purposes long reserved for assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold: as collateral for loans, insurance reserves, and the backbone of rated bonds. Examples include a Barbados-based insurer capitalizing with $40M in Bitcoin reserves and Ledn's $188M securitization of Bitcoin-backed loans, which received the first-ever investment-grade rating (BBB-) from S&P for a digital asset-backed security. This structure was stress-tested during a 27% price drop in early 2026, triggering automatic liquidations that functioned as designed but revealed the systemic risk of synchronized selling across leveraged positions. Infrastructure is evolving to support this, with platforms like Anchorage Digital's Atlas network enabling secure, institutional-grade settlement and collateral management. Strategies like basis trades and corporate treasuries (exemplified by companies like MicroStrategy issuing billions in equity and debt to fund Bitcoin acquisitions) further integrate Bitcoin into financial mechanics. While ETFs solved "how to own" Bitcoin, these developments answer "what to do with it," embedding the asset into the working machinery of finance—as collateral upon which loans, derivatives, and structured products are built. The real, enduring institutional shift is happening in these largely invisible plumbing and financing systems.

marsbit49 dk önce

ETFs Are Just the Ticket: The True Institutionalization of Bitcoin Is Happening Where You Can't See It

marsbit49 dk önce

ZEC Co-Founder Responds to Orchard Vulnerability: No Signs of Theft, Orchard Pool to Be Sealed

ZEC Co-Founder Addresses Orchard Vulnerability: No Signs of Theft, Plans to Sunset Orchard Pool A security vulnerability was recently discovered in Zcash's Orchard shielded pool, raising key concerns. The primary questions are whether the flaw was exploited, if user funds are safe, whether users can verify the total ZEC supply, and if other similar vulnerabilities exist. Analysis suggests the vulnerability was likely not exploited prior to its discovery. It was found proactively by a researcher using specialized tools, not due to an active breach. The development team and mining pools acted quickly to contain the issue. Typical financially-motivated attacks would likely have left visible on-chain evidence, which has not been observed. User funds in Orchard are considered safe and should be recoverable, assuming no prior exploitation. If the flaw was never used, all legitimate funds can be withdrawn. The article outlines risks associated with moving funds to transparent addresses or other pools, but concludes that leaving assets in place is a reasonable option. Currently, users cannot independently verify that the total ZEC supply hasn't been inflated due to this bug. However, the planned Ironwood network upgrade is designed to resolve this. It will permanently close the Orchard pool to new deposits and internal transfers, allowing only withdrawals. This mechanism will cap total withdrawals at the amount of legitimately deposited funds, enabling anyone to cryptographically verify the supply post-upgrade. Multiple teams, including Shielded Labs, have conducted extensive audits focused on counterfeiting vulnerabilities, assisted by advanced AI tools. No additional flaws of this type have been found so far, increasing confidence that no other similar undisclosed vulnerabilities exist. In summary, evidence indicates the Orchard bug was probably not used, user funds are secure, and no other counterfeiting flaws are currently known. The upcoming Ironwood upgrade will restore users' ability to independently verify the total ZEC supply, closing this chapter.

Foresight News54 dk önce

ZEC Co-Founder Responds to Orchard Vulnerability: No Signs of Theft, Orchard Pool to Be Sealed

Foresight News54 dk önce

İşlemler

Spot
Futures
活动图片