Как институционалы могут погрузить рынок в криптозиму

cryptonews.ru2025-06-27 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-07-28 tarihinde güncellendi

Компании, которые приняли стратегию формирования биткоин-резервов, могут спровоцировать новый медвежий цикл уже в 2025–2026 годах. При этом очередная криптозима может оказаться куда более жесткой, чем предыдущие

К таким выводам в ходе своего исследования пришел инвестор SunnyDecree. Он предупреждает, что рост институционального интереса к крипте может быть бомбой замедленного действия.

Недавнее исследование, которое провел криптоинвестор под псевдонимом SunnyDecree, выявило потенциально «бомбу замедленного действия» на крипторынке. Ей он назвал трехзначный список из 100 крупнейших публичных компаний, которые удерживают биткоин в своих казначейских резервах. По мнению аналитика, именно их масштабная продажа в конце очередного бычьего цикла способна серьезно ударить по курсу криптовалюты.

Автор работы обратил внимание на то, что многие участники рынка уверены в долгосрочном интересе институционалов к крипте. Они не закладывают в свои инвестиции риски распродажи BTC со стороны этой группы покупателей. На деле же институционалы, как и розничные инвесторы, заинтересованы в фиксации прибыли.

Топ-100 компаний, которые инвестировали в биткоин. Источник: bitcoin treasuries

SunnyDecree провел параллель с предыдущими всплесками инвестиционной активности на рынке. Если в 2017 году рынок взорвали ICO, в 2021‑м — NFT, то в 2025–2026 наметился тренд на формирование биткоин-резервов. По его словам, предупреждающие сигналы начинают проявляться уже сейчас, но большинство участников рынка следят лишь за громкими обещаниями бесконечного продолжения роста на институциональной волне.

«Особенно чувствительны к критике владельцы акций MSTR [MicroStrategy, крупнейший инвестор биткоина среди публичных компаний], когда речь заходит об их герое Майкле Сейлоре [основатель MicroStrategy]. Но кто‑то должен озвучить эту неудобную правду», — подчеркивает SunnyDecree.

Аналитик изучил динамику накопления биткоинов крупнейшими публичными игроками. Он пришел к выводу о том, что многие из них пополняли свои резервы на пике бычьего настроения, и теперь в случае коррекции они рискуют продать активы, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или сократить риски.

Если все 100 компаний начнут распродавать свои запасы одновременно или в условиях общего снижения рынка, это может оказать сильнейшее давление на BTC.

По предварительным расчетам SunnyDecree, совокупное количество биткоинов в резервах этих компаний может превысить несколько сотен тысяч монет. Все эти BTC в процессе фиксации прибыли могут оказаться на рынке, и тогда инвесторов будет ждать жесткая криптозима.

Несмотря на пугающие прогнозы SunnyDecree уверен в том, что биткоин продолжит свое существование и после очередной криптозимы. Свой позитивный долгосрочный прогноз он строит на предположениях о том, что криптовалюта прочно закрепилась на финансовом рынке.

Ну а пока что автор советует инвесторам внимательно следить за корпоративными держателями BTC. Продажа монет одним институционалом может запустить паническую распродажу. Такая цепная реакция способна сильно надавить на курс криптовалюты.

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