QCP Capital: биткоин сохраняет устойчивость несмотря на торговую войну США и Китая

cryptonews.ru2025-05-02 tarihinde yayınlandı2025-06-02 tarihinde güncellendi

Трейдинговая фирма QCP Capital опубликовала новый аналитический отчет, в котором оценивает устойчивость биткоина на фоне обострения торговых противоречий между США и Китаем. Несмотря на масштабные ликвидации и отток средств из ETF, первая криптовалюта продолжает удерживаться выше отметки $102 000.

Эскалация торговой войны ударила по рынкам

30 мая Трамп объявил о расширении технологических санкций против Китая и удвоении тарифов на сталь до 50%. Эти меры спровоцировали массовый отток средств с рисковых активов по всему миру, и криптовалютный рынок не стал исключением.

Последствия оказались серьезными — с 30 мая ликвидировано позиций почти на $1 млрд. Даже биткоин-ETF IBIT от BlackRock прервал рекордную 34-дневную серию притоков, зафиксировав отток в $430 млн. Такого оттока фонд не видел с момента запуска.

Движение средств в биткоин-ETF США. Источник: Farside Investors

Институционалы не сдаются

Пока одни инвесторы покидали рынок, другие наращивали позиции. Японская компания Metaplanet использовала падение для докупки биткоинов на $114 млн, доведя общие запасы до символичных 8 888 BTC. Подобная активность показывает, что институциональный интерес к первой криптовалюте остается высоким даже в условиях геополитической неопределенности.

Стратегия крупных игроков понятна — они рассматривают текущие колебания как возможность для накопления активов по более выгодным ценам. Такой подход контрастирует с поведением розничных трейдеров, которые чаще поддаются панике.

Технические показатели указывают на стабилизацию

Несмотря на бурные события, биткоин демонстрирует завидную устойчивость, удерживаясь выше психологически важной отметки $102 000. QCP Capital отмечает сжатие волатильности на ближайших сроках и восстановление баланса между опционами на рост и падение по всем временным интервалам — это говорит о том, что экстремальные настроения на рынке постепенно успокаиваются.

Фандинг по бессрочным контрактам вернулся к нулевым значениям, что отражает очистку рынка от избыточных заемных позиций. Этот фактор может способствовать более здоровому движению цены в ближайшей перспективе.

Аналитики фирмы ожидают ограниченного движения цены в краткосрочной перспективе. Ключевыми уровнями для наблюдения остаются $100 000 и $110 000 — именно на этих страйках сосредоточен наибольший открытый интерес по опционам на конец месяца.

Макроэкономический календарь недели

Напряженность вокруг тарифов, вероятно, будет доминировать в макроэкономических новостях до июня, поскольку значимые политические решения начнут приниматься только с 8 июля. В отсутствие свежих катализаторов биткоин может оставаться в боковом тренде.

На этой неделе внимание трейдеров будет приковано к ряду важных экономических публикаций:

  • Понедельник: индекс деловой активности ISM в производственном секторе, выступление главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла (Jerome Powell)
  • Вторник: данные по вакансиям JOLTS
  • Среда: изменение занятости в частном секторе от ADP
  • Четверг: еженедельная статистика по заявкам на пособие по безработице
  • Пятница: данные по занятости вне сельского хозяйства и уровень безработицы

QCP Capital подчеркивает, что текущая ситуация демонстрирует зрелость биткоина как актива. Первая криптовалюта все чаще ведет себя как традиционный рисковый актив, реагируя на макроэкономические события, но при этом сохраняет собственную устойчивость.

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