SEC Decision on XRP ETF Just a Month Away, What to Expect?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to deliver a verdict regarding Franklin Templeton’s planned spot XRP ETF, named the Franklin XRP Fund, on Thursday, June 17, 2025, now merely a month away.



This upcoming deadline follows the SEC’s earlier move to extend the initial 45-day review period to allow more time for consideration. Despite this, no public comments have been received on the proposal, and market observers say approval this month remains unlikely.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that XRP has a 65% chance of ETF approval, noting that the odds apply to 1933 Act filings like Bitcoin’s $IBIT. He also noted that while the two Solana futures ETFs in the U.S. haven’t attracted much in assets under management (AUM), the recently launched 2x XRP futures ETF already has more AUM than both Solana ETFs combined. Although he cautioned against reading too much into this early data, Balchunas said it offers an initial glimpse into investor interest in the altcoin ETF race



On prediction platform Polymarket, bettors also show low confidence in a near-term approval. The market gives only a 32% chance that the ETF will be approved by July 31, but a much higher 83% chance of approval before the end of 2025.
If not by the June 17 deadline, analysts are confident on the XRP ETF approval by the final deadline of around October 2025. This prediction comes as the SEC’s leadership is now in the hands of Paul Atkins, the pro-crypto SEC Chairman appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump.


Thus, netizens expect a crypto-friendly approach with the agency already initiating efforts by conducting crypto roundatbales lately with representatives from BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton and others attending. The meetings with the asset managers could also be a positive indicator for the approval of altcoin ETF filings, including XRP ETF filings, by these behemoths.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered predicts XRP could surge over 500% to $12.50 by 2028, and expects ETF approval by Q3 2025. JPMorgan estimates that altcoin ETFs could attract $14 billion in inflows during their first year, $4-8 billion of that possibly going into XRP ETFs.


Despite the uncertainty, the price of XRP has been stable. As of May 17, 2025, XRP is changing hands at around $2.34, down 3% in the last 24 hours. The intraday high was $2.43, and the low was $2.33.